After nearly a week of being glued to the TV for Play-In Tournament games like many NBA fans, the Detroit Pistons finally know their first-round playoff matchup. The Orlando Magic have played their way into the eighth seed and will begin their playoffs Sunday at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit.
The Pistons split the season series with the Magic. It’ll be a physical matchup, even in a postseason with heightened physicality and a looser whistle. Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero will be the headliners, but both teams have talented rosters that could yield plenty of unexpected heroes.
It’s shaping up to be a throwback first-round series, and it’s all set to tip now.
The Athletic’s Hunter Patterson (Pistons) and Josh Robbins (Magic) are here to get you ready.
What is the biggest storyline for each team?
Patterson: Will Jalen Duren’s offensive leap in the regular season translate? Detroit’s defense is a constant, and Cunningham averaged 25.0 points, 8.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds last postseason. But once the game slows down and inevitably becomes more half-court centric, it’ll be on Duren to maintain his career-best 19.5 points per game.
He’s been far more involved in the Pistons’ offensive scheme, as evidenced by his career-high 21.3 usage percentage. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff is using him as a hub offensively and affording him the freedom to take defenders off the dribble more. If Duren can sustain his production on offense while the rest of his Detroit teammates contribute the way they have during the regular season, the Pistons should be poised for a deep playoff run.
Robbins: The Magic appear nearly certain to make a coaching change at the end of their postseason. The team’s players seem to have no faith in their offensive system, and even the defense, which has been the team’s strength under coach Jamahl Mosley, has lost its mojo. The team has indeed struggled with injuries for a second straight year, but the Magic have underperformed even when the injuries and a thin bench are taken into account.
Can a pairing of Banchero and Franz Wagner produce on offense? Barring an unexpected playoff run, a new coach seems to be necessary for team officials to find out for certain, because the returns under Mosley haven’t been good.
What is the biggest concern for each team?
Patterson: Whether the Pistons have enough consistent 3-point shooting to properly space the floor for Cunningham.
The most encouraging sign for the Pistons over the last 10 regular-season games was that they led the league in 3-point percentage at 42.3 percent. Duncan Robinson —Cunningham’s backcourt mate — shot 41 percent from distance on 7.0 attempts per game for the season, which was the second-highest percentage of his career. Marcus Sasser (41.5), Javonte Green (38.1), Daniss Jenkins (37.4) and Tobias Harris (36.8) all shot at least 36 percent from long range on at least 2.5 attempts per game.
Detroit can seriously elevate its chances of making this a short series if it can be a respectable 3-point shooting team to keep opponents honest in their defensive schemes against Cunningham.
Robbins: Orlando simply cannot count on its offense when it’s in half-court situations. There isn’t enough creativity and — even more important — nowhere near enough 3-point shooting, even with Desmond Bane now on the roster. During the regular season, the Magic ranked 28th in the NBA in 3-point percentage on wide-open attempts (36.5 percent) and 28th on 3-point percentage on open attempts (31.7 percent).
Subpar long-range shooting doomed Orlando in its first-round loss in seven games to Cleveland in 2024 and in its first-round loss to Boston in five games last season. Will it doom the Magic again?
What’s the biggest reason for optimism for each team?
Patterson: Not only are the Pistons finally at full strength, but they’ve found their offensive rhythm. As I mentioned previously, Detroit’s defense has been its calling card under Bickerstaff. But the Pistons’ offense, apart from Cunningham, had question marks.
Their uptick in 3-point efficiency has been encouraging, as well as their scoring as a whole. During the final 10 regular-season games, they ranked third in field goal percentage (51.9), fourth in assists (32.1) and eighth in offensive rating (120.1). Plus, for the duration of the season, Detroit has displayed an ability to beat the best teams in the league. The Pistons were 34-16 against teams at or above .500, the third-best mark in the league.
Duncan Robinson and the Pistons’ 3-point shooting could play a big role in Detroit’s postseason run. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Robbins: The Magic’s preferred starting five of Jalen Suggs, Bane, Wagner, Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. is available to play together. Injuries limited the quintet to only 182 minutes together during the regular season, but in those minutes, Orlando outscored its opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions. Wagner still isn’t at his best after he missed much of the season because of a high-ankle sprain. But the Magic believe they can be dangerous if their preferred quintet remains healthy, and their strong performance in Friday’s blowout win over Charlotte is an encouraging sign.
Who or what is the biggest X-factor for each team?
Patterson: Ausar Thompson. He’s Detroit’s floor raiser based on his versatility. He routinely guards the opposing team’s best perimeter players, and the Pistons still post the best defensive rating in Thompson’s minutes (107.2) than any other starter on the roster. He impacts the game in so many ways without scoring, whether it be connective passing, intuitive cutting, offensive rebounding, playing the passing lanes or just flat-out neutralizing whoever he defends.
Robbins: Suggs. He’s Orlando’s heart and soul, and it’s important to remember that he missed the entire Orlando-Boston first-round series last spring following knee surgery. Without Suggs in that series, the team didn’t think it had much of a chance. He’s that important. When he’s at his best — wreaking havoc defensively, shooting at least at an average rate on 3s and avoiding turnovers — the Magic are a different team.
Series prediction
Patterson: Detroit matches up too well with Orlando, and its defense is too suffocating for the Magic’s offense to consistently function in the half court. Cunningham and Duren have had their way with Orlando. Plus, given Detroit’s good health, it would make for a huge challenge for Orlando to neutralize its depth. Pistons in 5
Robbins: Because the Pistons are only a middling team in terms of their 3-point percentage, they are a better matchup for the Magic than the Celtics would have been. And with Cunningham not in the same rhythm that he would have been had he not suffered his collapsed lung, it’s possible that Detroit won’t have its customary sharpness. This will be a series marked by physicality, which is Orlando’s strong suit; expect this series to get feisty. Still, Detroit has a clear advantage. Orlando has been less than the sum of its parts the vast majority of its season; Detroit is the opposite. Pistons in 5