Derek CartyApr 20, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Today’s top batter prop bets
Tyler Soderstrom | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.49 EV
Jordan Beck | OVER 0.5 RBI (+218)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.26 EV
Nick Kurtz | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+107)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.82 EV
Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+197)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.05 EV
James Wood | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+107)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.17 EV
Today’s top pitcher prop bets
Reid Detmers | OVER 5.5 K (-111)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.76 EV
Spencer Arrighetti | UNDER 5.5 K (-159)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.48 EV
Justin Wrobleski | OVER 2.5 ER (-101)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.44 EV
Bryce Elder | UNDER 4.5 K (-142)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.89 EV
Colin Rea | OVER 4.5 K (+117)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.11 EV
The BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Jack Flaherty
+119
42.7
-6.71
+1.0
-131
-8.01
8.0
O -105
8.61
-2.26
Sonny Gray
-143
57.3
-2.46
-1.0
+101
-3.86
U -115
-6.63
Spencer Arrighetti
-105
45.4
-11.38
-1.0
+122
-14.75
7.5
O -110
8.77
5.63
Slade Cecconi
-115
54.6
2.10
+1.0
-160
0.10
U -109
-14.35
Rhett Lowder
+102
49.9
1.30
+1.0
-153
0.19
8.0
O -105
8.76
0.10
Jesse Scholtens
-122
50.1
-9.29
-1.0
+117
-14.48
U -115
-8.90
Michael McGreevy
+109
45.8
-4.15
+1.0
-140
-4.07
8.0
O -118
8.58
-8.14
Max Meyer
-131
54.2
-4.53
-1.0
+107
-8.84
U -102
-0.43
Bryce Elder
-163
55.4
-9.93
-1.5
-102
-13.62
8.0
O -118
9.12
0.22
Jake Irvin
+135
44.6
3.82
+1.5
-118
4.16
U -102
-9.40
Aaron Nola
-108
47.0
-9.13
-1.0
+115
-13.91
7.5
O -115
8.49
-0.95
Colin Rea
-112
53.0
-0.02
+1.0
-149
0.20
U -105
-8.20
Kyle Bradish
-118
53.8
-0.11
-1.0
+105
-2.15
9.0
O -105
9.47
-8.06
Seth Lugo
-102
46.2
-9.04
+1.0
-136
-9.30
U -115
-1.08
Justin Wrobleski
-271
67.4
-7.93
-3.0
-113
11.5
O -108
13.41
11.45
Jose Quintana
+218
32.6
4.15
+3.0
-115
U -112
-20.25
Dylan Cease
-126
51.8
-6.14
-1.0
+102
-8.82
7.5
O -117
8.17
-6.58
Reid Detmers
+104
48.2
-2.75
+1.0
-132
-3.58
U -103
-2.19
J.T. Ginn
+135
45.2
5.80
+1.0
-111
3.45
8.0
O -115
9.22
3.50
Emerson Hancock
-163
54.8
-11.29
-1.0
-117
-15.46
U -105
-12.85
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Over:
The Cardinals’ team total has gone over the number in eight straight away games. (+8.25 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125
Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Under:
The Blue Jays have gone under on the first five innings total in 16 of their last 20. (+12.30 Units / 50% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +105
Houston Astros Game Total Over:
Fifteen of the Astros’ last 20 games have gone over the game total. (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -110
Boston Red Sox Game Total Under:
Red Sox games have gone under the game total in 11 of the last 15 played at Fenway. (11-3-1) (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -115
Washington Nationals Game Total Over:
Nationals home games have gone over the game total in 14 of the last 20. (14-6) (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -118
Colorado Rockies 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The first five innings run line has hit in eight of the Rockies’ last 10 home games. (+6.05 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -130