The WTA Madrid third round starts on Saturday. We are down to 32 singles players in the field, so with two days of third-round action on Saturday and Sunday, there will be eight matches on each day as the tournament moves toward the Round of 16 on Monday and Tuesday. Saturday’s card, as you would expect of a Round-of-32 order of play, contains some highly intriguing matches between players who are trying to rise in the rankings list before the French Open. Here are three matches to consider.

WTA Madrid
Swiatek – Li: Time 05:30 PST

H2H: 0-0

Iga Swiatek will play Ann Li for the first time in her career. While Swiatek has seen her World ranking drop over the last year, that doesn’t make her any less dangerous. Swiatek won this tournament in 2024, was a semifinalist last year, and a finalist in 2023. Li has never made it out of the third round at WTA Madrid. Swiatek has yet to win a tournament this year, nor has she made a final. She has made four quarterfinal appearances. 

Best Bet to Make

The odds against Li are absolutely absurd. The highest I saw was about 12.5-1 on Betfair. Swiatek is an average of a 10-1 favorite going into this match. You can’t even make money on a correct score bet. You’re going to have to roll the dice on a spread. The spread that stands out the most is -6.5 at 1.83 on 1xBet.

That being said, betting on Swiatek -6.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Swiatek -6.5 games @1.83 @1xBet

Baptiste – Paolini: Time 06:30 PST

H2H: 1-1

Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini is going to be an extremely interesting match. These two have only two total matches, but both of them have been really intense back-and-forth affairs. Their last meeting was the 2024 French Open second-round match won by Paolini after a tiebreak in the second set. Even their 2021 match was a 7-5, 6-3 win for Baptiste. 

Best Bet to Make

If you’re betting on this match, then you’re betting on Baptiste to keep things close. Baptiste has been potent enough this year that I truly think her capable of providing Paolini with a stern challenge. Paolini has been a shadow of herself this year, reaching only a single semifinal. She also doesn’t have the best results here in the past, leading me to believe Baptiste might not even have to work hard to keep it close. 

That being said, betting on Baptiste +2.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Baptiste +2.5 games @1.94 @1xBet

Sabalenka – Cristian: Time 11:00 PST

H2H: 1-0

Aryna Sabalenka will meet with Jacqueline Cristian for the second time this year. Sabalenka and Cristian met at Indian Wells, where Sabalenka dispatched her in straight sets. Cristian won a total of five games, and only one in the second set. I thought Swiatek was a huge favorite, and then I saw the lines for this match. They don’t think much of Cristian.

Best Bet to Make

One book has Sabalenka as a 20-1 favorite. Sabalenka is such a dominant favorite, you can’t even get more than 1.2 for her winning in straight sets. A solid -7.5-game spread can be had at 2.2 on Betway, but I like -7 at 1.76 on 1xBet. You’ll likely be fine either way, but -7 seems like a much safer option, given their last encounter. Who am I kidding? Sabalenka is likely going to steamroll Cristian.  

That being said, Sabalenka -7 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka -7 games @1.76 @1xBet

Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-USA TODAY Sports    

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