The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery.

The draft lottery is Tuesday night, with 15 teams vying to move up the order and the Vancouver Canucks hoping to stay put in the top spot. With separate lotteries for each of the first two picks, there are a number of ways this could all play out. Let’s dig into some of the possibilities in our annual power rankings.

The “Who needs it most?” rankings

Every team could use an elite prospect on a rookie contract for the next few years, but some teams need this more than others — not just for the pick itself, but as a reminder from the hockey gods that good things are allowed to happen.

Not ranked: Chicago Blackhawks/San Jose Sharks: At some point, you’re just being greedy.

5. Vancouver Canucks: I know, you’d assumed they’d be higher. And maybe they should be, given what a dumpster fire this season was. But I can’t shake the nagging fear that the Canucks picking first would just convince them that this was all part of some grand plan, and they should just keep doing what they’re doing.

4. New York Rangers: The big-market Original Six powerhouse is coming off a miserable season and the prospect cupboard is largely bare, so a lottery win would quiet some of the criticism while also giving them options for how to play their hand in the coming years.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs: The big-market Original Six powerhouse is coming off a miserable season and the prospect cupboard is largely bare, so a lottery win would quiet some of the criticism while also giving them options for how to play their hand in the coming years.

2. Winnipeg Jets: After a miserable season that’s led to some frustration from their best player, Jets fans could use some good news. So could their prospect pipeline.

1. Seattle Kraken: Did you forget they were in the lottery? Did you forget they existed at all? Yeah, that’s the problem.

The “Who actually deserves it?” rankings

This one’s always tricky, and the correct answer is usually, “Nobody, but someone has to win.” But some options would be easier to swallow than others.

Not ranked: Florida Panthers: Come on.

5. Winnipeg Jets: For most teams, winning the top pick one year after a Presidents’ Trophy would feel unfair. But given the circumstances in Winnipeg, where the draft is pretty much the only way they can land an impact player, we’ll allow it.

4. St. Louis Blues: They never tank, and haven’t picked higher than tenth since Alex Pietrangelo way back in 2008. New GM Alex Steen has his work cut out for him, and a little early luck could go a long way.

3. Seattle Kraken: This will be their sixth draft, and they’ve yet to really have a shot at a legitimate franchise player.

2. Calgary Flames: They’ve somehow never had so much as a top-three pick in their history, which dates back to the 1970s.

1. Vancouver Canucks: It’s the obvious answer, but this year at least, it feels like the right one. The Canucks were legitimately terrible, but they weren’t tanking, and they lost their franchise player during the season. Mix in the Canucks never having picked first in franchise history, and they’re the clear pick.

The “What’s best for whoever goes first?” ranking

We’re assuming Gavin McKenna will be the first pick, although Ivar Stenberg is in the mix too.

Not ranked: Toronto Maple Leafs: The team can’t win and is cursed and everyone in Toronto is mad all the time. Have fun being the saviour, kid.

5. Vancouver Canucks: The Vancouver market seems to be moving toward the acceptance phase of the rebuild to come, and an elite prospect would be welcome with open arms. Then again, the same was true for Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, so there’s a time limit on the honeymoon phase.

4. New York Rangers: Let’s just say the bar for top-two picks has not been set especially high, so you’re always going to be two good weeks away from being the most successful draft pick in modern franchise history.

3. New Jersey Devils: They’re not as far from contention as most teams in the lottery, and they already have two centers who were No. 1 picks, meaning this year’s pick wouldn’t have to be the face of the franchise. That makes them a solid landing spot, although there’s a big gap between this slot and the next two.

2. Chicago Blackhawks: They’re coming out of a long-term tank, have a ton of prospects, and already have a franchise center for McKenna or Stenberg to play with for the next decade. The only downside is that the weather could be a little nicer.

1. San Jose Sharks: Ah, there we go.

Also not ranked: Florida Panthers: Oh, you thought they’d be near the top of the list, because they’re a two-time champion that already has a winning core in a low-pressure market? That makes sense but then you remember our next section …

The “Which team might trade the pick?” rankings

On the one hand, seeing the No. 1 pick traded is all sorts of fun. On the other, it never happens anymore. On the third hand, which we’ve grown for the purpose of serving as a tie-breaker, there’s no law against fans speculating about it anyway.

Not ranked: Chicago Blackhawks: You could make the case that it’s time to start winning something, but Kyle Davidson has a long-term plan and an extension that gives him time to execute on it.

5. New York Rangers: They’re supposed to be rebuilding, but it’s fair to say the vision has been evolving over the years. This would feel extremely unlikely, but you can’t really rule anything out in New York these days.

4. Calgary Flames: We’re one year away from the new arena, and you wonder if ownership is on board with opening the doors mid-rebuild. To be clear, this would be a bad idea for the Flames, who could use an elite prospect to build around. The question here is whether ownership would force the front office’s hand.

3. Winnipeg Jets: Another team that’s firmly in “pick a lane” territory. And while that lane would almost certainly be to draft and develop the sort of potential star this market has trouble signing or trading for, it’s at least possible Connor Hellebuyck’s recent comments push them into win-now mode.

2. Seattle Kraken: They desperately need a true franchise prospect. But there’s some debate about whether any of the kids in this year’s draft can actually be that, and the Kraken are under a time crunch to make some sort of impression on a Seattle market that’s about to get the NBA back. Trading a high pick for some immediate help could be tempting.

1. Florida Panthers: Brady Tkachuk for a top-two pick in this year’s draft, who says no? I don’t think anyone does. I mean, Senators fans would scream it, at the top of their lungs, from the tallest building in the city. But that’s only like three stories, so it would only feel like white noise.

The “Get your tinfoil hat” rankings

The NHL now does the lottery live, which you’d think would make any kind of conspiracy talk impossible. And it would, if sports fans were reasonable about this sort of thing. Alas…

Not ranked: Toronto Maple Leafs: A reminder that John Chayka was suspended for a year for conduct detrimental to the league over how he left the Coyotes, who also lost two high picks because of how he managed their combine process. Wait, is it good when a struggling franchise hires a GM the commissioner of the league seems to hate? I’ll ask ChatGPT.

5. The Blues winning both lotteries: It could happen, and it would be very funny to watch every other fan base lose their minds if it did.

4. Calgary Flames: Gary Bettman loves two things, new arenas and rigging lotteries for teams in Alberta.

3. Seattle Kraken: I mean, when you think about it, $650 million probably should buy you some ping-pong ball freezer time.

2. New York Islanders: One year after they hit on 3.5 percent odds to jump up and get Matthew Schaefer, another win at 4.2 percent odds, even if it would only get them to the third pick, would feel awfully suspicious.

1. Florida Panthers: It’s fair to say that there’s a perception that the league loves the Panthers. It may or may not be fair to say that it’s a valid perception, but it’s out there, and a lottery win would have fans around the league howling.

The “Which team will move up to pass the Leafs?” rankings

This is a special section we’ve never had before, but we need it this year.

By now, everyone knows the deal with the Leafs’ pick: It’s top-five protected, and they head into the lottery sitting in the fifth spot, but if you add up the odds of all the teams behind them then there’s a better than 50 percent chance that somebody will move up and knock Toronto down to sixth, at which point their pick transfers to the division rival who took them to the cleaners on a trade.

And we all know that’s exactly what’s happening. Leafs fans. Leafs haters. Everyone. The hockey gods have been giving away this plot twist since December.

So the question isn’t whether someone will pass the Leafs, but who gets the honors. And some of the choices are more entertaining than others.

Not ranked: Nobody, and the Leafs stay in the top five: “But the odds are over 40 percent that …” shut up, nerd.

5. Winnipeg Jets: Wait, is everyone in Toronto crying right now? Wow, the Jets truly are Canada’s team.

4. St. Louis Blues: A Norris Division rivalry never dies; it just takes an occasional few decades off.

3. New Jersey Devils: Look at Sheldon Keefe out here playing the long game.

2. New York Islanders: Aw, tough break Toronto, maybe if John Tavares hadn’t scored so many goals you’d have lost a few more games and kept your pick.

1. Florida Panthers: The obvious choice, but still the best one. Even when both teams miss the playoffs, the Panthers still find a way to ruin the Leafs’ spring.

And finally …

The “Unintentional comedy” rankings

Let’s all point and laugh.

Not ranked: Seattle Kraken: Sure, why not.

5. The 1 out of 1,001 scenario: This is your annual reminder that the NHL’s 14-ball system yields 1,001 possible outcomes, of which only 1,000 are used, meaning there’s a less than 0.1 percent chance that they pull the one combo that makes them start all over again.

4. New Jersey Devils and Chicago Blackhawks: I know he plays for the Hurricanes now, but I’m not ready to give up on the whole “Taylor Hall always wins the lottery” thing. The Devils and Hawks are his two former teams that missed the playoffs, and seeing them sweep the two lotteries would be a nice reminder of that.

3. Florida Panthers: Although this one might be more of a “laugh to keep from crying” sort of deal.

2. Anyone bumping the Leafs down to sixth: Look, just because a joke has been telegraphed months in advance doesn’t mean it still won’t be funny when it finally happens.

1. Detroit Red Wings: If you’ve ever had a conversation with a Red Wings fan that lasted more than ten seconds, you know that they’ve had some awful lottery luck over the years. Having them finally win, and do it at massive long-shot odds, in a year where they don’t own their own pick, would be an epic knife twist by the hockey gods.