AI heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) will report its first quarter results on May 20, in what is easily one of the most anticipated announcements of the earnings season.
Nvidia’s results come as CEO Jensen Huang travels to China with President Trump for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, helping to push the company’s stock to all-time highs and sending its market capitalization to $5.5 trillion.
Investors are watching the action in China to see if Trump and Xi can reach an agreement on shipping Nvidia’s chips to China. Nvidia has said that while the US government has granted the company a license to ship its H200 processors to the country, China hasn’t granted Nvidia an import license.
During an interview on an episode of the Special Competitive Studies Project’s Memos to the President on April 30, Huang explained that Nvidia no longer has market share in China.
“Nvidia had, you know, call it 90-some-odd percent of the world’s market share,” Huang said in the interview. “Today, in China, we have now dropped to zero.”
Nvidia has also announced several new products in Q1 as part of its GTC event in March, including its Groq 3 language processing unit (LPU) and CPU-only server. Huang also said at the time that he sees $1 trillion in sales of its Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips.
Nvidia stock has been on a roll this year, climbing more than 21% year to date as of May 13. It’s up 74% over the past 12 months.
For Q1, Nvidia is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 on revenue of $78.75 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates. That’s up from the $0.96 and $44.06 billion the company saw in Q1 last year.
Nvidia’s data center business is projected to make up the bulk of its revenue, bringing in an estimated $72.85 billion. The company saw data center sales of $39.11 billion in the same period last year.
Of that $72.85 billion, $60.53 billion is expected to come from computing, while the remaining $12.45 billion will come from Nvidia’s networking segment.
The company’s gaming business will generate $3.64 billion, down 3.26%.
Nvidia is still the leader in the AI chip space, but it’s also facing ever-increasing competition from AMD, which will launch a competing rack-scale server system later this year, as well as from customers, including Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL), which are offering their AI chips to third-party customers.
In its latest earnings report, Amazon announced that its chip business now has an annual revenue run rate of more than $20 billion and is growing at triple-digit percentages year over year.