A 24-team College Football Playoff is moving closer to reality, after public statements of support this week from the ACC and Big 12. The format will produce plenty of extra participants with little hope of winning a national championship. Most of the teams qualifying in spots beyond the current 12-team field won’t even advance past the first two rounds.

But there also will be teams that lost a few games in September or dropped a couple of heartbreakers in November, yet still have a late-season run in them. Maybe a team has an offensive system that makes for a horrible matchup in a tournament setting, a defense that can shut down an opponent or a player who can take over a game.

Below are 10 teams from the past 30 years that finished the regular season ranked 15th or worse but could have made noise in an expanded tournament. The list starts with a team that was a whisker or two away from reaching the ultimate destination.

1. 2000 Michigan

Record: 9-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 17 AP, No. 16 BCS

Michigan football does not often earn outside sympathy, but in 2000, luck kept the Wolverines from a possible BCS title game appearance. They missed three kicks, including two fourth-quarter field goals, in a 23-20 loss at No. 14 UCLA. Drew Brees masterfully rallied Purdue from an 18-point deficit for a 32-31 Boilermakers win in October. Then, in early November, Michigan lost at Northwestern 54-51 in a game that forever changed Big Ten football. But the Wolverines also beat Wisconsin and Illinois teams that were ranked at kickoff, shut out Michigan State, blasted Penn State 33-11 and upset Ohio State 38-26 in Columbus to put themselves in a three-way tie for the Big Ten title with Northwestern and Purdue.

The Wolverines, which finished with a win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl, had a plethora of NFL talent, including Pro Football Hall of Fame guard Steve Hutchinson, offensive tackle Jeff Backus, linebacker Larry Foote, safety Cato June, receivers Marquise Walker and David Terrell, plus the “A-Train,” running back Anthony Thomas. Nobody would have wanted to face Michigan in an expanded playoff that year.

2. 2019 Iowa

Record: 10-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 19 AP, No. 16 CFP

The Hawkeyes were made for a 24-team CFP. They would have reached the field at least 10 times in Kirk Ferentz’s coaching tenure, but of the many Iowa contenders for this list, we’re going with the 2019 edition. The Hawkeyes came up just short on a two-point conversion that would have forced overtime in the division-deciding game at Wisconsin. They lost to Michigan and Penn State by a combined 12 points, knocked Minnesota out of the top 10 and rolled USC (with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London and Michael Pittman) 49-24 in the Holiday Bowl to finish 10-3.

Though it finished outside the Football Bowl Subdivision’s top 80 in points per game and yards per play, that Iowa offense featured future NFL starters Tristan Wirfs, Tyler Linderbaum, Alaric Jackson, Sam LaPorta and Tyrone Tracy, plus current pros Tyler Goodson, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smith and Charlie Jones at skill positions. Quarterback Nate Stanley finished his college career with 68 touchdown passes, which ranks 16th in Big Ten history. The defense had 12 players on NFL rosters last year and four players who made first-team All-America (A.J. Epenesa, Daviyon Nixon, Jack Campbell, Riley Moss) during their college career.

3. 2013 Texas A&M

Record: 9-4
Final regular-season rank: No. 20 AP, No. 21 BCS

The Aggies had some off-field issues in the year after Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy, but there was no doubting their offensive explosiveness when Manziel was slingin’ it. Texas A&M lost four SEC games, but three were in shootouts with one-loss Alabama (49-42), BCS runner-up Auburn (45-41) and SEC East champion Missouri (28-21). They scored at least 40 points 11 times, including a 52-48 win against Duke in the Peach Bowl.

Texas A&M’s offense included five first-round NFL Draft picks: Manziel, receiver Mike Evans, tackle Jake Matthews, tackle Cedric Ogbuehi and guard Germain Ifedi. Although the Aggies gave up more than 32 points per game on defense, that offense would have kept them in most games, even in the cold. And no defensive coordinator would want to see Manziel with the game on the line.

4. 2006 California

Record: 10-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 20 AP, No. 18 BCS

Before the 2006 season, ESPN’s Lee Corso predicted Cal would win the national championship. Although the broadcasting legend was off, it’s easy to see why he thought so highly of the Golden Bears. With running back Marshawn Lynch, receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Tyson Alualu and All-America cornerback Daymeion Hughes, the Bears were stacked. They lost the opener at Tennessee but rose to No. 8 nationally before an upset loss at Arizona. In a de facto Pac-10 title game against USC, the Trojans scored twice in the fourth quarter to win.

But with emphatic wins in Top-25 matchups with Arizona State, Oregon and Texas A&M, Cal could match up with most teams and had the skill players to blow past them.

5. 2009 Nebraska

Record: 10-4
Final regular-season rank: No. 20 AP, No. 22 BCS

The Cornhuskers were one second from a Fiesta Bowl berth, and some still debate whether Nebraska got hosed in its 13-12 loss to No. 3 Texas in the Big 12 championship. Anyone who watched that game remembers Ndamukong Suh’s dominant performance from the middle of the defensive line. In a tournament setting, Suh would have been unstoppable.

The Huskers’ offensive issues (including four turnovers inside the 5-yard line against Iowa State) cost them three games, but with a defense that allowed just 10.4 points per game, Nebraska could have shut down any offense.

6. 2023 Notre Dame

Record: 10-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 15 AP, No. 10 CFP

The Irish were building toward a high-level run and reached the championship game the following year, but a last-second defeat to Ohio State plus losses to Louisville and Clemson cost the 2023 team a New Year’s Six bowl invitation. But Notre Dame rolled three teams that were in the top 20 at kickoff, including a 48-20 win over USC. With Sam Hartman at quarterback, a trio of impressive running backs (Audric Estime, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price) and one of the deepest rosters in the country, Notre Dame was ascending by season’s end, blasting No. 19 Oregon State 40-8 in the Sun Bowl.

7. 2015 Baylor

Record: 10-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 18 AP, No. 17 CFP

A season after the Bears shared the Big 12 title with TCU, the 2015 team was perhaps even more explosive on offense, scoring at least 56 points in each of their first six games, starting 8-0 and reaching No. 2 in the polls. But their hot start fizzled into three losses in their final four regular-season games.

Baylor averaged 48 points and 616 yards per game and beat top-10 teams Oklahoma State and North Carolina by double digits. Their defense would have kept them from a deep run, but with two 1,000-yard rushers in Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson and one of the nation’s top receivers in Corey Coleman (1,363 receiving yards, 20 touchdowns), the Bears would have caused sleepless nights in December for the opposing defensive staff.

8. 1999 Mississippi State

Record: 10-2
Final regular-season rank: No. 15 AP, unranked in BCS

With help from the SEC’s best scoring defense (13.1 points per game) spearheaded by cornerback Fred Smoot (five interceptions), the Bulldogs found ways to win, especially during a three-game stretch in mid-October when they beat Auburn, LSU and Kentucky by a combined five points. Things swung the other direction in a pair of close losses to Alabama and Arkansas, but they rallied from a 14-point deficit to topple Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. In Year 9 under Jackie Sherrill, Mississippi State finished with the SEC’s best overall record. Discipline, defense and special teams often win games in the margins, and the resilient Bulldogs could match any team in those areas.

9. 1998 Air Force

Record: 12-1
Final regular-season rank: No. 16 AP, unranked in BCS

Stopping the triple-option wishbone is much more difficult when you have limited time to prepare for it. Fisher DeBerry’s Falcons won their first outright WAC title in 1998, averaging 36 points per game on offense and holding opponents to 14.2. Air Force’s only loss came at TCU when a running back named LaDainian Tomlinson scored the game-winning touchdown in a 35-34 September shootout. From there, the Falcons rolled off nine straight victories, including a 43-25 win against Washington in the Oahu Bowl.

10. 2024 Iowa State

Record: 11-3
Final regular-season rank: No. 18 AP, No. 18 CFP

The Cyclones opened with seven consecutive victories and closed with a school-record 11th win after beating Miami 42-41 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. With quarterback Rocco Becht, NFL receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, a physical running game and a solid defense, Iowa State was a threat against any opponent in any weather. The Cyclones were 4-1 in games decided by a field goal or less.