The chief actuary for Social Security says that President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will increase the program’s costs starting in 2025, causing the combined Social Security trust funds — Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) — to run out of money earlier than previously projected.
Trust funds now expected to be depleted in early 2034
In a letter sent Tuesday to Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., Chief Actuary Karen Glenn stated that the trust funds are now expected to be depleted in 2034.
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Glenn’s letter was in response to a question from Sen. Wyden, who asked her to explain how OBBBA would affect Social Security’s trust funds.
Lower taxes, less income for Social Security
Chief Actuary Karen Glenn said permanently lower income tax rates and temporary changes to tax deductions will impact how much money the Social Security trust funds receive. So, if people pay less in income taxes due to OBBBA, less money will flow into Social Security.
“The combined net effect of these income tax provisions results in less overall tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries,” Glenn wrote.
Costs over next decade
Over the next 10 years, Glenn says OBBBA will increase the cost to Social Security by about $168.6 billion. Because of these higher costs, the money in the Social Security trust funds will run out sooner than expected.
When that happens, if Congress and the president don’t act, Social Security will be required to cut benefits automatically, because it won’t be allowed to spend more than it takes in.
Shift in depletion timeline
Before OBBBA, the trust funds were expected to be depleted in the third quarter of 2034, which is July through September. After OBBBA, they’re now expected to run out in the first quarter of 2034, which is January through March.
According to the Social Security Administration, as of June 2025, just under 70 million people receive Social Security benefits.
Mathew Grisham (Digital Producer)
contributed to this report.