They began the World Cup as outsiders in Group D but Australia now have — according to The Athletic’s projections — an 85 per cent chance of reaching the knockout rounds after beating Turkey 2-0 in Vancouver on Saturday night.

Tony Popovic’s industrious side took the lead midway through the first half thanks to a wonderfully composed finish from 20-year-old Nestory Irankunda, one of The Athletic’s Stars of Soccer. The Watford forward sped onto a long ball, nudged it past a defender and produced a tidy near-post finish to put his side in front.

Turkey head coach Vincenzo Montella looked to his stacked bench, bringing on Juventus star Kenan Yildiz at half-time, but his side continued to toil against Australia’s stubborn defence and could not beat Patrick Beach, the 22-year-old goalkeeper making only his third appearance for his country. In the end Turkey had 30 shots — the most a team has generated without scoring in a World Cup game since Portugal against England in 2006), but their expected goals total was only 1.3.

The result of an entertaining game was sealed with 15 minutes remaining when Connor Metcalfe struck from outside the box to make it two and send the travelling Australia fans wild.

Here The Athletic’s Simon Hughes and Joshua Kloke break down the key talking points.

How significant was this result?

Australian supporters in Vancouver for this game made it clear they really want to beat the United States because an impression has formed in the host country that the Socceroos were the easiest opponent in the group.

The U.S. have more evident talent but Australia will be a tough nut to crack. Before their opener, Montella said Turkey needed to be careful not to get sucked into Australia’s way of playing but they did.

If the U.S. underestimate them on Friday, they’ll be in trouble.

It was a terrible result for Turkey but they had enough chances to get a more positive outcome. Melbourne City goalkeeper Beach was outstanding.

Connor Metcalfe makes it two (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

It is probably more convenient, however, that they face Australia next because Turkey will be burned by what happened in Vancouver, potentially making them even more focused and determined to get their World Cup campaign back on track against Paraguay. Opta puts Turkey’s chances of reaching the knockouts at 52 per cent — the perennial dark horses have work to do to get back on track.

Simon Hughes

Introducing: Nestory Irankunda

For most of the first half especially, Turkey went around the houses to cross the road. Their approach to goal involved lots of touches from their technical players and when it clicked, some of their stuff was rather nice.

Australia approached this game very differently. They know Turkey are better on the ball and they let them have it, waiting for their opportunity to break. It helps when you have Irankuda, a winger who should not be left alone in space.

His goal was beautifully straightforward. Paul Okon-Engstler saw that he was free and chipped it forward. A slow Turkish defence could not compete but Irankuda’s opener was not just about speed, with his clinical finish sending Ugurcan Cakir the wrong way.

Now with Watford, Irankuda’s story is remarkable. A Burundian refugee born in Tanzania, he arrived in Australia when he was three months old and the family set up in Adelaide. The 20-year-old has already had a spell at Bayern Munich but moved on because he wanted to play first team football.

In Vancouver, he gave a thrilling performance, to which Turkey, with all of their experience, had no answer.

Simon Hughes

How was Vancouver’s World Cup bow?

There has been a growing sense that Vancouver could end up being one of the best host cities of the World Cup. And man oh man, did the city, BC Place and those in attendance come through for Vancouver’s first men’s World Cup game.

Getting inside the venue could be a little more challenging than others: nearby Skytrain stations don’t offer direct access into the stadium. Instead, fans were directed through a lengthy walk around False Creek to get into BC Place. It’s a stunning walk (like every stroll through Vancouver) and in the hours leading up to kick-off, fans maintained high energy as they paced through pre-game nerves. The numerous beer gardens along the walk likely didn’t hurt the atmosphere.

BC Place hosts a World Cup game for the first time (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

Inside the stadium itself, two things stuck out.

First, the freshly laid grass surface, courtesy of a nearby farm (keep it Canadian!), looked sublime. This is the same stadium that usually has an eyesore of a turf surface. For their first men’s World Cup game, BC Place looked night and day.

Full credit, finally, to the Turkish fans. If the first game hosted in Canada yesterday (Canada 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1) will be remembered for an uplifting crowd, the crowd in the second game in Canada will be remembered for being piercing. Deafening roars, booing Australia when they hit the Turkish box; Australian fans had their moments but those in red made their presence known. Put them down as one of the more spirited fan groups of the tournament.

Joshua Kloke