The college football world has tried to dictate Arch Manning‘s path to him since he was a senior in high school. At one point, it was to go to Alabama or Georgia. At another point, it was to transfer out of Texas. Further down the road, it was to quit football or move to a lower level at its most extreme.

[Sign up for Inside Texas and get 50% off Premium Access!]

After a 2025 season where he led Texas to a 10-3 record as a first-year starter, passed for 3163 yards and 26 touchdowns, and ran for 399 yards and 10 scores, the conversation has shifted to where Manning should aim his focus at being a top pick, if not the No. 1 overall pick, in the 2027 NFL draft.

Steve Sarkisian didn’t want to call Manning entering the 2027 draft a foregone conclusion when speaking Monday on Up and Adams with Kay Adams. While it’s hard to envision Manning sticking around at Texas for a third year as a starter, especially with a top-five selection in next year’s draft a real possibility, it’s a scenario Sarkisian hasn’t shut the door on completely. But he also understands Manning declaring after his redshirt junior season in Austin carries a high likelihood as well.

Asked Adams, “do you know what’s happening? Has the conversation happened as far as 2027 and beyond? Are we waiting? I guess the question is, how surprised would you be if he wanted to stay?”

“We haven’t had the discussion,” Sarkisian said. “I would tell you, I would not be surprised. I think Arch really loves college football. I think he loves the University of Texas. He does pretty good through NIL. He’s got some pretty good endorsements, which is a credit to him, obviously the lineage of the last name, and the brand of the University of Texas, all those things coming together.

“By the same token, I won’t be surprised if he declares and decides to go to the draft. I think some of that is dependent on how he plays as a team this fall, how he plays individually. Knock on wood, injury-free football and things like that. But that’s not our focus. Our focus is getting ready for the season, Texas State in week one, then Ohio State, then UTSA, then Tennessee, so on and so forth.

“We haven’t had any dialogue about it. To your point, I wouldn’t be surprised. He loves college and he’s got some pretty good NIL stuff going for him right now.”

Throughout his interview with Adams, Sarkisian was highly complimentary of Manning not only for his on-field prowess but also for demonstrating a type of toughness that had teammates praising him in their own conversations with NFL franchises.

“I think the biggest thing for me with Arch was he found out how tough he really was physically and mentally,” Sarkisian said. “To endure what he went through early in that season and to endure what he went through throughout games, then the way he responded to that as the games went on later in the year, the guy is bleeding out of his lips against Michigan at the end of the year, his hip is jacked up, and yet he’s still scrambling and running for touchdowns. I think he found out how tough he was as the season went on, and I think his teammates found out how tough he was.

“I always thought it was interesting, a lot of the NFL teams when they’re interviewing our players getting ready for the draft, they’ll ask who’s the toughest guy on the team. Those guys were all saying Arch Manning. Whether that was Manny Muhammad, Anthony Hill, Michael Taaffe, all those guys getting ready for the draft, they’re saying Arch Manning. To me, what we learned about him and what he learned about himself is how mentally and physically tough he his, then his ability to lead through that toughness to gain the respect of his teammates.”

Manning, who underwent offseason surgery for a foot issue, was a limited participant in Texas’ spring drills. Thought to be one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2027 draft class, Manning has 4132 career passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing scores, and one receiving touchdown as a Longhorns.