Chances for tropical development in the Gulf continue to increase
The disturbance poses no threat to Florida, regardless of development.
Updated: 2:04 PM EDT Jun 15, 2026
An area of interest has a medium chance of tropical development in the Gulf this week. The Gulf Coast Storm Team is closely monitoring the disorganized area of storms over northeastern Mexico.While development isn’t expected over the next 24 hours as the storms remain over land, the disturbance could emerge over the Gulf by Wednesday. As of Monday afternoon, the latest odds for development have increased to 40 percent over the next two days and 50 percent over the next seven days. Regardless of development, this disturbance poses no threat to Florida. Tropical Impacts Regardless of tropical development, this cluster of showers and storms will bring a heavy rain event to Texas and Louisiana. Some communities could see 5-10″ of rain, bringing a flooding threat as well toward the end of the workweek.If this disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm, the first name of the season is Arthur. This is the only area of interest at this time. However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demand, on TV and online.Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.Your Gulf Coast Weather TeamChief Meteorologist Allyson RaeMeteorologist Caroline CastoraMeteorologist Jim DickeyMeteorologist Lauren HopeMeteorologist Raphael TavernierMeteorologist Rob DunsMeteorologist Sara BlueFollow on Social: Follow, like and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | XDOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.
FORT MYERS, Fla. —
An area of interest has a medium chance of tropical development in the Gulf this week. The Gulf Coast Storm Team is closely monitoring the disorganized area of storms over northeastern Mexico.
While development isn’t expected over the next 24 hours as the storms remain over land, the disturbance could emerge over the Gulf by Wednesday.
As of Monday afternoon, the latest odds for development have increased to 40 percent over the next two days and 50 percent over the next seven days. Regardless of development, this disturbance poses no threat to Florida.
Tropical Impacts
Regardless of tropical development, this cluster of showers and storms will bring a heavy rain event to Texas and Louisiana. Some communities could see 5-10″ of rain, bringing a flooding threat as well toward the end of the workweek.
Gulf Coast News
Futurecast Rainfall
If this disturbance strengthens into a tropical storm, the first name of the season is Arthur. This is the only area of interest at this time.
However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.
Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.
Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demand, on TV and online.
Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.
Your Gulf Coast Weather Team
Follow on Social: Follow, like and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | X
DOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment and original programming on your TV.