Watkins Glen International hosts the third-to-last race of the regular season. With only three opportunities left to a win to automatically qualify a driver for the playoffs, expect some serious strategy at the last road-course race of the regular season.
Drivers also had a 20-minute practice session, and with this being the fifth road course race of the year, we have plenty of speed data to add to the varying strategies.
Like always, my practice FLAGS data will help with analyzing practice speeds, and in addition, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for The Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International.
Watkins Glen DFS Core Picks
Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.
William Byron ($9500): Byron was top dog in practice on the long run, and he was also No. 1 in group-adjusted practice FLAGS. By starting just 10th, he has plenty of place-differential potential where a podium finish should put him in, or close to, the optimal lineup even if he doesn’t dominate.
Justin Haley ($5700): Haley’s cheap price tag combined with his blistering speed in the first practice group, where he topped the group in FLAGS, makes him a strong core play this weekend.
His 23rd-place qualifying effort wasn’t ideal, but that is music to DFS players’ ears to get a fast car starting that far back at a cheap price tag.
Chase Elliott ($9100): Elliott isn’t going to show up at the top of the lap averages thanks to the group splits, but he was ninth in five-lap and 10-lap average. After adjusting for the fact that the second practice group, which he was a part of, fired off slower, he actually shines.
That’s exactly what my practice FLAGS metric does, and by that metric, he was sixth overall in group-adjusted FLAGS.
Elliott starts 20th, so there’s a ton of potential for him to move forward, especially when we consider that his teammate Alex Bowman, who was fifth in FLAGS, may be on a suboptimal strategy as the driver most likely to points-race.
Watkins Glen DFS Tournament Picks
One of Kyle Busch or Michael McDowell ($7700 / $8400): Two drivers who must win to get into the playoffs will start right next to each other in fifth (Busch) and sixth (McDowell).
We know both have fast cars from practice, both are successful road-course racers, and both will also be on the optimal strategy going for the win.
But by starting so far forward, there’s likely only room for one of these two to end up in the optimal lineup.
That means you should build in some negative correlation between the two if you’re using the lineup optimizer, because it’s highly unlikely both end up optimal. But I think there’s a solid chance one or the other could end up optimal.
Ty Gibbs ($8700): Gibbs is in a similar must-win situation as Busch and McDowell, but for DFS players, there’s the luxury that Gibbs starts 14th, meaning he could finish inside the top five and end up optimal, which allows him to be paired with either McDowell or Busch.
Gibbs is also a strong road-course racer, posted solid practice times, and will be in win-or bust mode. That’s the upside we look for in tournaments.
Todd Gilliland and/or Cole Custer ($6700 / $5300): If you’re looking for some cheap pivots off of Haley, Gilliland and Custer are wise choices that start in the bottom third of the field.
Both placed in the top half of the field in five-lap average in practice and have a solid chance at ending up optimal, especially if some of the big-dollar drivers take home the top few spots while also grabbing some dominator points.
Pictured:Â William Byron
Photo credit: Ayrton Breckenridge, Imagn