Quick Read
Bank of America forecasts 75 basis points of Fed rate hikes through 2026, citing sticky inflation and hawkish new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
JPMorgan upgraded IBM to Overweight with a $291 target, while Evercore ISI cut Nike to In Line with a reduced $46 target.
Chevron signed a 20-year deal to supply natural gas to Microsoft’s 2.67-gigawatt West Texas AI data center, bypassing the grid starting in 2028.
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Pre-Market Stock Futures:
Futures are trading lower after a mixed start to trading on Monday, following the holiday-shortened week due to the Juneteenth Federal holiday. We may start to see some end-of-the-quarter reallocations and selling for Hedge funds, ETFs, and Mutual Funds this week, and today looks like a starting point. With most corporate buybacks now on hold due to the second-quarter earnings blackouts, we could see additional volatility as the week progresses. The only indices to finish Monday positive were the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at 51,712, up just 0.29%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which closed at 3,005, up 0.88%. The Nasdaq took a beating, closing down 1.33% at 26,166, while the S&P 500 also closed lower, down 0.37% at 7,472. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped on Monday as megacap tech stocks sold off sharply, dragging both indexes lower. Investors are growing increasingly uneasy about the steep infrastructure spending required to scale AI, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add another layer of uncertainty to markets.
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Treasury Bonds:
Treasury yields soared on Monday, and one likely reason we cover today at 24/7 Wall St. Bank of America came out Monday with a report saying the bank now expects a stunning 75 basis points of rate increases from the Federal Reserve for the rest of 2026. The BofA team sees a 25-basis-point increase in September, October, and December, effectively wiping out the 2025 cuts. Citing sticky inflation and a hawkish first meeting by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, as reasons for a potential big shift in policy. The 30-year long bond closed the day at 4.95%, while the benchmark 10-year note was last seen at 4.51%
Chaay_Tee / iStock via Getty Images Oil and Gas:
Despite some ambiguity about the Strait of Hormuz’s status on Monday, both major benchmarks finished the day lower. Brent Crude closed Monday at $78.18, down 2.97%, while West Texas Intermediate closed the session at $74.20, down 2.18%. Natural gas continued its hot streak, closing at $3.25, up 0.37%, with some pointing to the announcement CNBC reported that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) signed a 20-year agreement to supply natural gas to Project Kilby, a massive West Texas AI data center built by Microsoft. Located in Reeves County, this “behind-the-meter” plant will generate 2.67 gigawatts of electricity directly for the data center, bypassing the traditional power grid when it begins delivering power in 2028.
Gold:
Gold started the week off right, closing 0.89% higher at $4,189, while Silver was last seen at $65.03, up 0.49%. Energy strategists pointed to the hefty pullback in crude oil prices following a 60-day roadmap toward a peace deal between the US and Iran in Switzerland. Easing geopolitical tensions can reduce inflation risk premiums and provide precious metals with relief from interest rates.
Crypto:
Crypto markets moved quietly higher Monday as easing geopolitical tensions boosted investor confidence, with Bitcoin holding its ground above $64,000. BTC opened around $63,242 before climbing to $65,218, while Ethereum shook off early weakness to reach $1,775. The broader market followed suit, with altcoins gaining ground and ETFs tied to XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid drawing notable inflows. At 8 AM EDT, Bitcoin traded at $62,360 while Ethereum traded at $1,657.