Headline inflation has eased to an annual rate of 4 per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April, according to the latest ABS data.
The better-than-predicted figure comes after sharp falls in petrol and diesel prices.
The Australian share market has started its day higher despite a major sell-off across US tech, AI and semiconductor stocks, which resulted in steep losses on Wall Street.
See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.
Disclaimer: This blog is not intended as investment advice.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:45pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:45pm
Market snapshotASX 200 +0.1% to 8,796 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.10 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-1.7%), KOSPI (-0.5%)
Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,063/ounce
Brent crude: -0.9% to $US76.46/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne
Bitcoin: +0.4% to $US62,610
ASX 200 +0.1% to 8,796 pointsPrices current around 2:45pm AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:12pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 3:12pm
🎙️ An inflationary mixed bag
The latest CPI numbers showed headline inflation easing, thanks in part to falls in fuel prices.
But the trimmed figures — which help to measure underlying inflation — came in hotter than the previous month.
So, where does this leave the RBA on the question of ‘where to next’ on interest rates?
Meanwhile, there’s been a budget deal with Labor and the Greens. What do you need to know about it?
And why are some Australians noticing a spike in their electricity bills?
Carrington Clarke and I had a lot to chat about on ABC Business Daily. Take a listen!
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:48pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:48pm
Karl Stefanovic podcast completely independent: Nine
Media network Nine has distanced itself from the controversial podcast by Today show host Karl Stefanovic.
Stefanovic has had an interview with far-right extremist Tommy Robinson taken down from social media and podcast platforms.
Robinson is one of the most divisive anti-immigration voices in the United Kingdom, and he co-founded the far-right English Defence League movement.
The ABC contacted Channel Nine about the interview.
A spokesperson said the Karl Stefanovic Show was a completely independent production and that Channel Nine had no involvement in it, including in guest selection and other editorial processes.
Stefanovic, who is in the UK and not on Nine’s screens on Wednesday, was contacted for comment.
Shares in Nine Entertainment are down 1.9% this session.
You can read more from the Radio National Breakfast team:
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:36pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:36pm
‘Gas prices better start going down a lot faster’: Donald Trump
The price of Brent crude oil continues to fall.
Brent crude futures are down 1.1% today at $US76.27 per barrel.
But with ships starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — about 20% of the world’s oil moves through this narrow waterway off Iran — Donald Trump says prices aren’t coming down fast enough.
With a fragile peace deal being worked out, the US president has instructed his Department of Justice to look into oil companies for not lowering pump prices in line with falling crude costs.
“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged’,” Mr Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!”
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:13pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:13pm
What is trimmed mean inflation?
Headline inflation may have eased in May, but underlying inflation strengthened again, according to today’s ABS data.
The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, trimmed mean inflation, increased from an annual pace of 3.4% to 3.6%.
ABC News business reporter Gareth Hutchens digs deeper into the latest numbers.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:04pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 2:04pm
Market snapshotASX 200 +0.1% to 8,798 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.07 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.1%), KOSPI (+1.1%)
Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,062/ounce
Brent crude: -1.1% to $US76.27/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne
Bitcoin: +0.3% to $US62,647
Prices current around 2:03pm AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:52pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:52pm
RBA likely to keep rates on hold in August: HSBC
Many economists are now predicting a rate hike when the RBA next meets in August.
While today’s headline inflation figure was lower than predicted at 4%, driven by a drop in energy costs, other data released by the ABS is concerning.
It shows that rising prices — particularly outside the energy sector — are impacting Australians in a major way.
But Paul Bloxham, chief economist for HSBC in Australia, NZ and Global Commodities, predicts that the RBA will hold off increasing interest rates at its next meeting, keeping in mind it won’t get together in July.
“Although there is some risk that the RBA could choose to hike again in August, due to still too high inflation in May and likely in Q2, we think a forward-looking approach will see them remaining on hold instead,” Mr Bloxham wrote in HSBC’s Global Investment Research.
“In short, although inflation is too high, as today’s [data] reminds us, the signs are that inflation will fall in the future — due to sharply lower oil prices and a weakening economy.”
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:27pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:27pm
WiseTech Global shares up by more than 15 per cent
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks for WiseTech Global, but its shares are up sharply today.
They’ve jumped by more than 15%, despite the ongoing scandal around the company’s founder and executive chairman, Richard White.
WiseTech Global shares are trading at $33.47, up by $4.71.
That comes after a sharp drop earlier in the week.
WiseTech Global has been embroiled in governance and leadership controversies centred on Mr White after allegations about personal relationships, disclosure failures, and insider-trading investigations.
Mr White denies wrongdoing, no charges have been laid, and WiseTech says it is cooperating with investigations.
Here’s a look at the top and bottom movers on the ASX 200 midway through Wednesday’s session.
Top and bottom movers (Refinitiv.com)Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:07pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:07pm
Australian share market flat midway through session
The ASX 200 initially reacted positively to the latest inflation figures.
But now it’s not so sure.
Having been up around 0.4% at one point after the 11:30am AEST release of the ABS data that showed the headline inflation rate at 4% last month, the ASX 200 is now basically trading flat.
It’s climbed just one measly point to be sitting at 8,788 just after 1pm AEST.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:05pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:05pm
Westpac keeps August rate hike forecast
Westpac economists are retaining their forecast for an interest rate hike in August after today’s inflation figures.
“The weakness was centred on transport, clothing & footwear, and holiday travel. Balancing this was a stronger outcome in rents and new dwelling inflation,” they wrote in a note.
“Even with oil prices off their highs, and other commodity prices easing to a lesser extent, we expect further pass-through from still elevated fuel and commodity costs over coming months.
“This is likely to keep inflation uncomfortably high for the RBA, which will be concerned that high inflation is becoming embedded in domestic wage and price setting behaviour.
“The larger than expected increase in new dwelling inflation, which has already been singled out as a risk, will be particularly unsettling.”
So far, it seems most economists are finding something in today’s figures to support their views, so no drastic rewriting of forecasts just yet.
We’ll get further inflation data ahead of the RBA’s August meeting, so plenty of time yet to go back to the drawing board if needed.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:04pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 1:04pm
Market snapshotASX 200: Flat at 8,786 points
Australian dollar: -0.2% to 69.03 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.4%), KOSPI (+1.8%)
Spot gold: -1.1% to $US4,060/ounce
Brent crude: -1.3% to $US76.09/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne Bitcoin: +0.3% to $US62,578
Prices current around 1:03pm AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 12:46pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 12:46pm
Inflation numbers ‘a mixed bag’: IG Australia
The threat of a rate hike remains “firmly in place”, according to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia.
He described today’s inflation update as “a mixed bag as headline inflation surprisingly cooled while the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean ticked higher”.
Mr Sycamore said while the headline inflation rate of 4% was lower than the forecast 4.3% or 4.4% for the 12 months to May, the other numbers weren’t as encouraging.
“The RBA’s preferred measure the trimmed mean rose to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.4% in April. That was a touch above the 3.5% market expectation and keeps underlying inflation on a worrying upward path for now,” he said.
“Tomorrow’s labour force report will be the next key input. For now, the base case remains on hold for August, with any further tightening or a continuation of the ‘on hold’ stance data dependent.”
Earlier this month, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes, noting that “inflation is still too high”.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 12:16pm
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 12:16pm
‘Inflation problem’ could mean rate hike: Deloitte
So, were today’s inflation numbers good news or bad news?
It depends on how you look at them.
On the surface, a headline inflation figure of 4% — lower than the forecast 4.3%, and under the 4.2% the previous month — seems like a positive development.
But Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, said the latest data means there could be another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year.
“Today’s CPI data is an unwelcome reminder that Australia’s inflation problem is not yet solved, with another rate hike in 2026 still likely,” he said in an emailed statement.
“The government’s temporary fuel excise cut has masked the extent to which inflation pressures remain a problem for the Australian economy and is delaying some of the price growth pass-through to other sectors. These pressures will become more visible as the policy is unwound through July.”
He added that the RBA was dealing with “a difficult mix of softening growth and elevated inflation” with the economy slowing in the March quarter, as the labour market cools.
“That may normally suggest the central bank needs to be patient. But with underlying inflation now above the 2.5% target for almost five years, today’s result means the Reserve Bank must remain vigilant,” Mr Smith wrote.
“For households, the message is familiar but uncomfortable. Inflation is no longer surging, but it is still eroding purchasing power. Until price growth slows more convincingly, cost-of-living pressure will remain real, and the risk of another rate hike will remain firmly on the table.”
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:58am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:58am
Inflation trending lower but underlying stickiness: RSM
RSM Australia economists say the May inflation report keeps the RBA’s August rates decision “finely balanced”, as inflation trends lower but “underlying stickiness” remains.
RSM economist Devika Shivadekar has retained her forecast of a prolonged pause on rates by the central bank.
“Looking beneath the headline, the composition of inflation remains skewed towards persistent, domestically driven components, which is keeping underlying (trimmed mean) inflation elevated,” she wrote.
“The direction of travel on inflation is encouraging, but a 4% annual pace is still too high to justify an early pivot to rate cuts, especially with core pressures likely lingering above target…
“The next CPI release, due on 29 July 2026, will be pivotal for the August meeting, as it will include the full June quarter data alongside the monthly update giving the RBA its most comprehensive read on inflation momentum.”
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:57am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:57am
Markets react positively to inflation data
The better-than-expected inflation numbers have had a positive effect on the Australian share market.
We’ve just heard that headline inflation for May was 4%, when many pundits were predicting 4.3%. It was 4.2% in April and an eye-watering 4.6% in March.
Having traded almost flat before the 11:30am AEST announcement, the ASX 200 is now up by around 32 points, or 0.36%.
And the All Ordinaries has risen by about 31 points, or 0.35%.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:53am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:53am
Inflation pressures increase chance of a rate hike: BDO
Anders Magnusson, chief economist at advisory firm BDO, has given his take on the inflation data.
He sees it as increasing the possibility of another rate hike, due to the shift from headline to underlying inflation pressures.
“Today’s CPI data confirms inflation is becoming more entrenched, with underlying inflation moving higher and increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will tighten policy further in August,” he wrote in a note.
“This increase in underlying inflation, while headline inflation decreases, reflects a shift from an initial energy-driven shock to broader and more troubling price pressures across the economy.”
He said the data showed that rising energy costs were no longer confined to fuel and utilities.
“Higher transport, production and distribution costs are now flowing through to a wider range of goods and services, lifting trimmed mean inflation and signalling that underlying price pressure is building.
“This is consistent with the pattern seen in previous supply-driven shocks, where headline inflation rises first, followed by a more persistent increase in underlying inflation as businesses pass on higher costs.
“That dynamic is now clearly playing out, and it marks a more concerning phase of the inflation cycle.”
He said, as a result, the RBA is likely to hike rates in August.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:51am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:51am
Market snapshotASX 200: +0.4% to 8,819 points
Australian dollar: -0.1% to 69.12 US cents
Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.1%), S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.2%)Europe: Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), DAX (-1%), FTSE (-0.1%)Asia: Nikkei (-0.5%), KOSPI (+2.3%)
Spot gold: -0.5% to $US4,083/ounce
Brent crude: -0.4% to $US76.74/barrel Iron ore: +0.1% at $US99.90/tonne Bitcoin: +0.9% to $US62,930
Prices current around 11:50am AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:43am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:43am
Mixed inflation outcome compared to forecasts
It was a mixed inflation report compared to forecasts.
Headline inflation eased more than expected.
It fell 0.7% in the month, seeing the annual rate ease back to 4% — that compares to forecasts of -0.4% and 4.3% according to a Reuters poll.
However, the trimmed mean was hotter than forecast.
It had been tipped to rise 0.3%, taking the annual rate up to 3.5%.
The ABS figures showed the trimmed mean up 0.4% in May, taking the annual pace of underlying inflation to 3.6%, well above where the RBA would want to see it.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:40am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:40am
Housing, food, transport biggest contributors to inflation: ABS
The ABS says the biggest contributor to annual inflation in the year to May was housing, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport.
The annual housing inflation rate was 6.5%, which the ABS says reflected rising costs for electricity, new dwellings and rents.
“Electricity costs are 21.1% higher than 12 months ago as Commonwealth and state government rebates that reduced electricity costs for households are no longer in place,” ABS head of prices statistics Rachael McCririck said.
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:36am
Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 11:36am
Prices lower in May than in April
Looking at the monthly movement, the consumer price index was down 0.7% in May compared to April.
That took the annual rate from 4.2% in April to 4% in the year to May.
That’s the second month of the annual pace of headline inflation decline, after it came in at 4.6% in March as the Middle East war caused a shock to energy prices.
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