The case for Green Bay winning the division: Matt LaFleur’s crew has made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, including each of the last three. Locals might be frustrated with the recent lack of division titles and playoff success, but LaFleur continues to win.
Jordan Love has improved each year since he took over the starting reins, and last season he rid himself of some of the YOLO issues that had plagued him those first two campaigns. Given how long he’s been around, it’s easy to forget that Love enters only his fourth season as the starter. There’s still room to grow. Love’s command of the offense is sublime when things are clicking, and he’s grown into a legit distributor who can pick apart defenses when protected. If he stays healthy and continues the upward trajectory, the offense can carry the load.
The offseason contracts for Christian Watson and Jayden Reed underscore the Packers’ belief that they have a receiver trio that can grow into a force together. Matthew Golden improved immensely down the stretch in his rookie season. If he makes the Year 2 WR leap, the passing game could be potent. If Tucker Kraft, who is returning from last year’s ACL tear, is back to his dominating self, the Packers’ attack will be a menace. Add in an offensive line that is in better shape than it was when the season ended, and LaFleur has the pieces to get back to the top of the division. There are questions about veteran running back Josh Jacobs, though, given the investigation surrounding his recent arrest.
Micah Parsons will miss the start of the season, but when he returns, it will be the biggest boost of any in-season addition. Even if the D gets off to a wobbly start, it’s easy to envision Parsons’ eventual return completely rejuvenating the defense and making the Packers a dangerous opponent down the stretch. The start of Green Bay’s schedule doesn’t look the stiffest, so if Parsons is back for the meat of the schedule — potentially versus rival Chicago in Week 5 — it will make a massive difference in the division race.
Elsewhere on defense, the Javon Hargrave addition should fit Jonathan Gannon’s scheme like a glove, helping cover a sore spot in the middle that plagued it a year ago. The crux of an improved defense under the new DC could be second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse. If he solves some of the corner concerns that have troubled Green Bay in recent years, it’s a defense that profiles better than others in the division.
The case against Green Bay: What if Love has plateaued? Love gets a bad rap, particularly when things go awry. He might never be that guy who stacks up MVPs and carries a club alone, but with the proper surroundings, he’s proven he can move the offense and win games. But if he takes a step backward or simply treads water, the entire operation could sink. The Packers need the QB to continue progressing in Year 4 as the starter.
If Jacobs misses time due to injury or his off-field situation, the run game could go south. Jacobs is the engine of the Packers’ offense, churning out yards as he gashes defenses. There are question marks behind the three-time Pro Bowler, with Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd next in line. Brooks profiles as a third-down back and Lloyd hasn’t been healthy, playing in only one game since entering the league in 2024. LaFleur’s offense isn’t the same without a solid rushing attack.
The Packers replaced Jeff Hafley with Gannon, who has run only one top-10 defense in five years as a head coach or DC. A step backward from last season could prove costly in a contested division. Parsons’ recovery hovers over everything on defense. He’s the dominant force that makes everything go. If his recovery is delayed, that could spell doom. There is also the possibility that he might not be his game-wrecking self upon his return. Given Lukas Van Ness’ struggles to be an every-down difference-maker and the questions about the rest of the rotation, Parsons playing at less than his supernatural powers could be devastating.
Oh, and let’s toss in that Green Bay is counting on a rookie kicker, sixth-round pick Trey Smack, in one of the most difficult settings to boot the ball. With some pivotal late-season home games on the schedule — including dates with the Bills, Texans and Lions — could the Packers’ title hopes come down to a rookie kicking in bad weather?