The contract

The Washington Capitals signed forward Alex Tuch to an eight-year deal with a $10.5 million AAV.

All signs pointed toward Tuch cashing in this summer. That is the benefit of being one of the few top-six wingers left standing ahead of free agency, after players such as Kyle Connor, Martin Necas, Artemi Panarin and Adrian Kempe signed extensions early. Pair the shallow market with trends set by those wingers to sign for $10-plus million and the growing cap, and it set up the perfect storm for Tuch.

A $10.5 million AAV over eight years makes a ton of sense given the context around the situation. But it doesn’t make it any less risky because he’s already 30 years old and age-related declines come for everyone.

In so many ways, Tuch is an intriguing fit for the Capitals. With or without Alex Ovechkin, Washington needed to punch up its forward group and add another layer of scoring to go from a team with some solid pieces to a true contender. Ideally, those forwards would bring the rush-based skill that this team has been missing outside of Aliaksei Protas. In Jordan Kyrou and Tuch, the Capitals add exactly that: Two forwards who bring a lot of speed and can do damage in transition.

Tuch adds more than just speed to the lineup. It’s the combination of size, skill, goal-scoring ability and defense that makes him an all-situation threat. This is someone who can score 30-plus goals without over-relying on power-play production. That could be really valuable for a team that will soon have to find ways to replace the greatest goal scorer of all time by committee. Add in the Spencer Carbery factor, and how much he’s gotten out of this roster in a short time, and Tuch could be worth a slight overpay, or even live up to that $10.5 million cap hit.

The question is for how long.

That is the risk here, because an eight-year term is the long haul. It’s not just that his stock is down after an underwhelming second-round playoff performance. It’s that even when accounting for cap growth over the years, those later years are concerning. Tuch projects to be worth $8.4 million a year, on average, over the next four seasons. That market value projects to dip below the $6 million mark in the last three years. While there’s a chance he ages like Mark Stone and keeps raising the bar in his mid-30s, other comps such as Rick Nash, Jamie Benn, James Neal and R.J. Umberger all point to the likelihood of that downturn.

That $10.5 million cap hit is a massive gamble. That’s why the Sabres’ decision to move on from Tuch makes sense, even without a clear replacement lined up to make up for all that he brought to the lineup. Signing a contract that could be a cap anchor in the later years isn’t exactly the most promising start to a playoff window. The fact that palm trees are finally growing in Buffalo, as players are starting to take the Sabres off their no-trade lists, may give management more latitude to look elsewhere, too.

Maybe that isn’t a concern for the Capitals, considering how much the team already has tied up in long-term contracts. The focus is on the present and that cap situation is a later problem. Right now, this team needs top-six help and Tuch can provide it. He’s an interesting fit in that sense, but the big picture raises a lot of red flags.

Contract grade: B-