INGLEWOOD — The U.S. men’s national team returned to SoFi Stadium — sorry, Los Angeles Stadium — for the second time in this World Cup, to play Turkey in the finale of the three-match group stage.
And SoFi Stadium indeed will serve as a barometer of success for the hosts.
Just not Thursday night.
The 3-2 loss to Turkey (Turkiye in official FIFA parlance that the Associated Press and other U.S. media outlets refuse to acknowledge) was utterly meaningless, so much that United States coach Mauricio Pochettino rotated nine of 11 starters from the previous game, including the entire back line and backup goalkeeper Matt Turner.
The Yanks still advance as group champions to the knockout stage, beginning with the round of 32 on Tuesday in Santa Clara. The Turks still fly home.
What’s not meaningless is the next time the hosts can play at SoFi, a July 10 quarterfinal looming through the smog like the San Gabriel Mountains abutting this metropolis. That’s when we finally get answers. That’s when perception intersects with reality.
Perception: The U.S. men are having a historic World Cup.
Reality: They haven’t done anything yet.
The old adage in sports is you need to be good and lucky, not necessarily in that order, and the Yanks have been both. They’ve looked fluid, dynamic, energetic, confident, imposing, even dominant at times, while getting a pair of early own goals in a 4-1 win against Paraguay and a 2-0 win against Australia.
But that was Paraguay and Australia, 41st and 27th in the FIFA world rankings, bereft of World Cup pedigree, gifts from a tournament that expanded from 32 to 48 teams in the name of selling more $1,000 nosebleed tickets.
Turkey, ranked 22nd, was considered the toughest assignment in the group and the only European foe, which is U.S. kryptonite. (The U.S. men have now lost nine straight games against European teams in all competitions and won only one of 21 meetings in World Cups since 1990.) They struggled once again, trailing 2-1 at halftime and surrendering a last-second winner, but it didn’t matter if they lost 30-2.
Next up?
There’s a 99% chance Tuesday’s round of 32 opponent will be No. 64 Bosnia and Herzegovina, which squeaked through a last-chance playoff by beating Wales in a penalty shootout and then Italy, also in a penalty shootout, despite playing the final 75-plus minutes with a man advantage.
And the round of 16?
It was supposed to be No. 9 Belgium, the overwhelming favorite to win Group G that embarrassed the U.S. 5-2 in a March friendly. But the talented Red Devils have continued their World Cup tradition of underachievement and have only a slim chance of landing in the U.S. side of the bracket by finishing atop the group.
That leaves No. 29 Egypt or No. 25 South Korea, teams with aging superstars who don’t present the same kind of technical challenge and will be clear underdogs against the U.S. on U.S. soil.
Which means: If form holds, if they don’t choke, if they dispatch inferior opposition, if they don’t stub their toe walking to the kitchen, the Yanks are in the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
Kaan Ayhan #22 of Turkiye celebrates a goal against the United States during a FIFA World Cup 2026 match at Los Angeles Stadium on June 25, 2026 in Inglewood, California. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
That year, they won the opener 3-2 against a Portugal team ranked No. 5 at the time, drew against a South Korea team that would reach the semifinals as hosts, then won 2-0 against No. 7 Mexico in the round of 16.
Their road this summer is nothing like that. In fact, it is statistically the smoothest to the final eight since the FIFA world rankings were instituted before the 1994 World Cup and would be the first time in 24 years that a quarterfinalist wouldn’t have faced a top-20 team.
That all changes at SoFi on July 10, when No. 3 Spain or No. 8 Portugal await.
That’s when we get answers. That’s when we find out how good this team really is, or isn’t.
In the last World Cup here, in 1994, the U.S. men received a pair of gifts — an own-goal by Colombia that put them through to the knockout phase and a 43rd-minute red card against Brazil in the round of 16 that had the hosts still tied with the eventual champions and up a man deep into the second half before a partisan red, white and blue crowd celebrating the Fourth of July.
That U.S. team, formed without a domestic pro league and only a handful of players on small European clubs, didn’t have the depth or quality to convert opportunity into achievement.
This one might.
It has nine of 11 first-choice starters playing for European clubs, a respected Argentine coach, a roster full of World Cup experience from 2022 and a tactical system with a pentagon midfield that gives opponents fits.
It also has the intangible absent from a country that has won only one World Cup knockout match in its history: swagger.
“Why not us?” has been Pochettino’s mantra that is beginning to gain traction, valid or not.
Explained Pochettino: “It was like a motto for us to say, ‘We can. If we believe we can, we can do. If we work hard, we can do. If we change our mindset, we can do.’”
Ozan Kabak #15 of Turkiye and Christian Pulisic #10 off the United States are separated during a FIFA World Cup 2026 match at Los Angeles Stadium on June 25, 2026 in Inglewood, California. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
That’s where the luck of the draw matters, where a bad Paraguay team, a bad Australia team, a loss against Turkey that doesn’t matter, Bosnia and Herzegovina with a population (3.1 million) smaller than San Diego County, Egypt that last reached the knockout stage in 1934 matters. Confidence becomes competence.
“We need to move on, of course,” midfielder Brenden Aaronson said after the 3-2 defeat. “But we’re full of confidence. I’m not worried about it. I’m not worried at all. I think the team is in a great spot.”
“There’s definitely belief,” forward Folarin Balogun said earlier this week. “Whether I’d call it magic, I’m not sure. There’s definitely a belief we have. There are 15 or 20 guys who would put their life on the line for a win, for a result, to block a goal. When you have that sort of mentality, you’re always going to give yourself the best chance.”
The World Cup is 14 days old. We’ll have to wait another 15 to find out.