July 6, 2026, 12:05 a.m. ET

The United States and Belgium meet in the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 Monday. Kickoff from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze World Cup odds around United States vs. Belgium odds and make our expert soccer picks and predictions.

The United States, No. 16 in the FIFA World Rankings, won Group D by beating Paraguay 4-1 and then Australia 2-0 before losing 3-2 to Turkiye. In the Round of 32, the United States beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 despite a controversial 64th-minute red card given to F Folarin Balogun. The USMNT star, who has scored 3 goals, was initially suspended for 1 game, but that was overturned Sunday and he will be available to face ninth-ranked Belgium.

While Belgium did end up winning Group G, it certainly didn’t impress. It drew Egypt 1-1, then had a 0-0 tie against Iran before throttling New Zealand 5-1 behind 2 goals by F Leandro Trossard. Belgium had a rough Round of 32 opponent in Senegal. It won 3-2 after being down 2-0 with just 5 minutes plus stoppage time remaining in the match. F Youri Tielemans scored both the second and third goals to help Belgium advance.

The United States has played Belgium 7 times and has only 1 win, in their first meeting in the 1930 World Cup group stage. Their only other World Cup meeting was in the 2014 Round of 16 when Belgium won 2-1 in extra time in Salvador, Brazil. Belgium beat the USMNT 5-2 in an international friendly March 28 in Atlanta, Georgia.

The winner plays either Portugal or Spain in the quarterfinals Friday in Los Angeles, Caifornia.

Watch FIFA World Cup 2026 on Fubo!United States vs. Belgium odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): United States +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Draw +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Belgium +165 (bet $100 to win $165)Over/Under (O/U): 2.5 (O: -150 | U: +120)United States vs. Belgium picks and predictionsPrediction

United States 1, Belgium 1 (United States advances in extra time)

BET DRAW (+225).

These teams are pretty even, which is displayed in similar odds to win outright. Belgium beat the United States 5-2 in the March friendly, but this feels like a completely different USMNT side, and for that matter, a completely different Belgium side as well.

Having Balogun available should enhance the United States offense (he’s at +150 to score Monday), but its defense hasn’t truly been tested yet which is a pretty significant question mark. Belgium scored 6 group stage goals and netted 3 on a solid Senegal side. It will come to play, but it has largely played to the level of its competition, drawing against Iran, Egypt, and Senegal through 90 minutes. Expect another even match Monday.

BET UNDER 2.5 (+120).

Belgium has controlled the possession in all 4 games so far in its World Cup run, and it has gone Under this total twice. It created just 2 big chances against Senegal, scoring both.

While Belgium will be the best attack the United States has seen, it has held 2 of its last 3 opponents scoreless. While Bosnia-Herzegovina was a third-place finisher in its group, the United States held it to just 0.25 expected goals. The Americans’ defense has been resilient so far, and it should continue to be.

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