This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.
Fertilizer prices continued to rise in the second quarter of 2025, with the World Bank’s fertilizer price index up 15 percent since the start of the year. Triple superphosphate (TSP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) saw particularly sharp gains, rising 43 and 23 percent, respectively. The increase has been driven by strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls—especially in the case of urea. For the full year, prices are projected to register a modest increase over 2024, supported by firm demand, before stabilizing in 2026. However, prices are expected to remain well above their 2015–19 average, reflecting elevated input costs, resilient consumption, and ongoing export restrictions (China), sanctions (Belarus), and tariffs (Belarus and Russia). Risks to the outlook include input cost increases on the upside, and a potential easing if Chinese exports resume on the downside.