FARGO — There is a cliche about Las Vegas and sports. “Vegas knows,” it goes, implying that bookmakers there have the knowledge — and sometimes the inside dope — to set the betting lines. Sports books and casinos aren’t in business to lose money, so they’re not going to dole out easy pickings to the bettors.
Sports being sports, Vegas doesn’t always know. North Dakota State, for example, was a 23.5-point favorite over Illinois State in an FCS playoff game last year. Final score: Redbirds 29, Bison 28. Not only did Illinois State cover, it won the game.
That’s old news. The question in 2026 is again, does Vegas know?
The sports book BetMGM put out its Group of Six college football victory total over/unders
and it has an interesting number attached to NDSU.
Nine point five.
Yep, 9.5.
The Bison are scheduled to play 12 regular-season games in their inaugural season in the Mountain West Conference and Football Bowl Subdivision. Which means you’d have to believe they are going to go 10-2 to bet the over.
Conversely, you’d have to believe NDSU will go 9-3 or worse to bet the under.
Considering the move up from FCS came with no transition year and a roster that lost a ton of starters and production on both sides of the ball and has a new inexperienced quarterback and new travel and games at the four toughest stops in a new conference … it seems like an easy pick.
I’ve said in this space already that 8-4 should be considered an excellent debut season in FBS for the Bison and I’ll stick with that.
BetMGM seems to be acknowledging that by apparently trying to entice bettors after posting the 9.5 number.
Presumably a ton of money has come in on the under — NDSU has the highest win total over/under among all G6 teams — and so the bookmaker has the under odds at -235, meaning you have to bet $235 to make a $100 profit. Conversely, the over odds are at +175, meaning you could win a profit of $175 on a $100 bet.
It would appear the house is begging bettors to take the over.
It’s all part of a seesaw prediction season when it comes to NDSU.
Brett McMurphy of On3 Sports began the madness
shortly after NDSU accepted its invitation to the Mountain West by writing that the Bison would be favored in every game they’ll play and later predicting they’ll be the G6 representative in the College Football Playoff. Things tempered after that when other national prognosticators weighed in.
Analytics guru Bill Connelly of ESPN predicted NDSU finishing third
in the conference behind UNLV and New Mexico.
The 2026 Mountain West Conference football schedule.
Contributed / Mountain West Conference
Longtime prognosticator and writer Phil Steele has the Bison fifth
after New Mexico, UNLV, Air Force and Hawaii.
CBS Sports has NDSU fifth (and ranked 109th of 138 FBS teams!) trailing UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii and Air Force.
Athlon Sports pegs the Bison fourth behind UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.
Local Mountain West writers vary, too. Chris Murray of Nevada Sports Net has NDSU third after New Mexico and UNLV while Alex Taylor of Wyoming News predicts the Bison sixth (yikes) behind UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii, Air Force and Wyoming.
The point is, the prophesying is all over the map. We don’t know what we don’t know.
and awards. Like Izzo, I noticed the conference will not have a preseason media poll this season. Like Izzo, that won’t stop me.
Here’s my Mountain West Conference preseason prediction:
NDSU’s 2026 football schedule with opponents, kickoff times and TV networks.
Troy Becker / The Forum
New Mexico: Head coach Jason Eck will be the new head coach at Wisconsin next season (hot take!) and he’ll make the most of his last season in Albuquerque. The Loboes have the most returning production in the league, a solid quarterback, stout enough defense, good line play and the 2025 defensive player of the year in linebacker Jaxton Eck (the coach’s son). If MWC schedule makers had a sense of humor they’d have sent Eck to Fargo, where Bison fans would’ve given him a warm welcome based on his Twitter habits from his South Dakota State days.
UNLV: The Rebels allowed 28 points and 419 yards a game last year. Head coach Dan Mullen is an offensive guru, but his defense is suspect and UNLV has a tough non-conference slate. Standout quarterback Anthony Colandrea is gone to Nebraska, replaced by five-star transfer Jackson Arnold, who’s at his third school. UNLV and Mullen are the chic national pick to reach the CFP, but the Rebels allowed an average of 47 points in two games against Boise State last year.
NDSU: I almost picked the Bison to finish ahead of UNLV but stuck to my guns and predict a lack of depth, travel fatigue and a tough league road schedule (at Air Force, UNLV, Hawaii and New Mexico) will be difficult to overcome in year one of FBS. After watching some archived 2025 games on the new MW+ app, I’m predicting long-term Bison success in their new league. Yes, there are some talented offensive skill players in the MWC but NDSU’s blueprint of strong lines of scrimmage and stout defense means a conference title sooner than later in the new neighborhood.
Hawaii: The most intriguing team aside from NDSU. Two Power Four games on the mainland (Stanford and Arizona State) but a very favorable schedule overall (no Air Force while getting New Mexico, UNLV and NDSU at home). The Rainbow Warriors will sling it around the field with lefty quarterback Micah Alejado and some talented receivers, plus a lightning-fast running back in Cam Barfield. Defensively, middle of the pack a year ago — which might be good enough with Hawaii’s offense.
Air Force: The good news is the Falcons return their entire defense. The bad news is the Falcons return their entire defense. Air Force allowed 30.3 points and 423 yards per game in 2025 and will need to be better if veteran coach Troy Calhoun’s team wants to bump up the pecking order and return to a bowl game for the first time since 2023. Former Bison coach Craig Bohl and current head coach Tim Polasek, both with MWC experience, have said Air Force is always a difficult team to play because of the Falcons’ unconventional option offense, discipline and toughness.
San Jose State: The 6 through 10 spots aren’t going to be very good, so this might be as much of a crapshoot as anything. The Spartans have a 13-game schedule, have almost an entirely new roster and a remade coaching staff. But their game against NDSU on Thanksgiving weekend is a non-conference affair and their league schedule isn’t bad with games against league newcomers Northern Illinois and UTEP plus Nevada and Wyoming. With a break or two, there are four MWC wins there.
Nevada: It’s likely defending FCS champion Montana State will be favored when it visits Reno on Sept. 12 and the Wolfpack also play Western Kentucky and UCLA in non-conference games. Head coach Jeff Choate, an old friend of NDSU from his days at Montana State, will be fighting to keep his job but getting to six wins and a bowl might be difficult with games against the top five teams in the league in New Mexico, UNLV, NDSU, Hawaii and Air Force.
Wyoming: Another head coach, Jay Sawvel, who will have a tough time keeping his job with a losing season. The Cowboys are 7-17 in two seasons under Sawvel, who replaced the retired Bohl in 2024. Wyoming’s defense was solid a year ago, giving up 20.5 points per game, but scored just 17.7 points per in an offensive-minded league. The Cowboys hope the answer lies with FCS transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes from William and Mary.
UTEP: The coolest stadium in the league (the Sun Bowl) isn’t going to net any victories. A brutal non-conference slate with two Power Four games at Oklahoma and Michigan gives the Miners the toughest overall schedule in the MWC. Incarnate Word transfer quarterback E.J. Colson will be the starter, but UTEP has many questions aside from that position. There are some winnable home games against teams like Wyoming and Nevada. The Miners have had two winning seasons since 2000 and were 2-10 last year playing in Conference USA.
Northern Illinois: A historically solid program in its old home, the Mid-American Conference, but it was a struggle (3-9) last year. And that was before head coach Thomas Hammock left in February for an NFL assistant job. Rob Harley is the interim coach for 2026. The Huskies were worse offensively than Wyoming, scoring just 17.1 points per game a year ago and just last week added FCS transfer quarterback Taron Dickens from Western Carolina by way of a brief stop at North Carolina.
Mike McFeely is a columnist for The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. He began working for The Forum in the 1980s while he was a student studying journalism at Minnesota State University Moorhead. He’s been with The Forum full time since 1990, minus a six-year hiatus when he hosted a local radio talk-show.