This first bust has a lot less to do with Allen as a player than it does with the idea of taking the first quarterback in a fantasy draft being busted as a matter of principle.
To be fair, the Buffalo Bills QB actually lived up to those lofty expectations in 2025—the first quarterback drafted on average a year ago, he finished in that very spot.
That doesn’t happen especially often with the first signal-caller off the board.
However, per Andrew Erickson of Fantasy Pros, Allen’s reliance on rushing production for his fantasy value makes a repeat performance somewhat unlikely:
“In 2025, he hit a six-year low in passing yards per game (215.8), TD passes (25), and fantasy points per game (22.0). The rushing production drove his fantasy football production, and that doesn’t seem like it will go away anytime soon. Eventually, Allen’s rushing will fall off, but it does not appear that is the plan for Buffalo in 2026. However, I do think it might change sooner rather than later. The Bills’ QB suffered a foot injury toward the end of last season. And Buffalo had the league’s healthiest offense in 2025, according to adjusted games lost (FTN).”
Frankly, Allen wasn’t good value even a year ago. He managed less than one fantasy point per game more than Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, who was available over 10 rounds later.
In leagues that start just one quarterback, elite fantasy QBs just aren’t worth the cost—or the hole they leave at running back or wide receiver.