I previously looked at receivers who the market is, in my opinion, irrationally exuberant about. Now I’m looking at wideouts who are receiving irrational pessimism.

As I wrote in the overpriced WRs column, try to draft undervalued players as close to the pessimistic price as possible. Rankings are not recommendations for what you should pay (that should always be average draft position), they are a way to assess the expected value of the price you pay.

I used FantasyPros ADP and I’ve included where I’m ranking the WRs in question. I always show my work so you can agree or disagree with the data and thus my ranking relative to ADP, displayed below as: (ADP/my ranking).

Courtland Sutton, DEN (ADP WR35/my WR24)

I compare Sutton to Terry McLaurin, who has a WR24 ADP. What is the difference? Over the past two years with Sean Payton as the head coach, Sutton has been WR13 (2025) and WR15 (2024) in PPR scoring; in PPR points per game, he finished as WR22 (2025) and WR27 (2024). He was over a 20% target share overall, in the red zone and inside the 10. He was tied for fourth in end zone targets (14) — end zone targets are worth 3 expected fantasy points each, and Sutton was about average at converting them. Jaylen Waddle is a fine complement, but he won’t command more than 25% of targets — he’s squeezing the other WRs out of work. Sutton won’t be a home run, but he’s almost certain to be a single or a double at the current price. Sometimes in a draft, you just keep the rally going.

Alec Pierce, IND (WR36/WR23)

The comp for Pierce is Jameson Williams, who is WR27. In fact, Pierce has more upside because he can be the alpha and Williams can’t be in Detroit (without an injury). We don’t know when and how QB Daniel Jones will return from his Achilles tear — a terrible injury, and Pierce had ankle surgery; however, he then received a massive contract ($114 million for four years). The Colts had 111 targets walk out the door when WR Michael Pittman (replaced by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) left. So probably at least 40 of those will shift to Pierce. His efficiency metrics may go down about 15-20%, but he’d still be expected for 10 yards per target, or roughly 1,200 yards. Pierce’s red-zone target rate was only 11.6%, about half of what we’d like to see, but it can increase with Pittman gone, as Pierce is 6-foot-3, well sized for the red zone.

Wan’Dale Robinson, TEN (WR43/WR35)

I compare Robinson to another underneath wide receiver — Rashee Rice (WR11). Quick strikes to Robinson will allow Tennessee to stay ahead of the sticks. Let’s remember, he got $78 million to play for his ex-head coach (now his OC). He averaged eight targets a game the past two years when Brian Daboll coached New York and converted 68% into catches. So I’ll start with a projection of 136 targets and 92 catches. Robinson was 13th in yards after the catch (YAC) but totaled just 27 yards over expected. It’s anyone’s guess how many touchdowns he’ll get; it may be just four or five, but at his ADP, he’s well worth the pick.

Malik Washington, MIA (WR70/WR61)

I don’t have a comp for Washington. He’s my WR61, which is meaningless, but I’m ahead of the market. You can take him anywhere in the last four rounds, and I’m on board. Washington is the market’s highest-ranked Miami WR. He’s cast as a nothing prospect and sixth-round real-life draft pick who has been horribly inefficient overall and especially in 2025 (4.9 yards per target and 4.9 aDOT, weirdly). However, he had 100+ receiving yards in 10 of his final 11 college games (2024). He ran a sub-4.5 40 at the combine. There are a ton of targets gone as well, as 1,175 receiving yards departed from the 2025 roster. I can’t see them being replaced significantly by Tutu Atwell or fifth-year player Jalen Tolbert. No matter how much Miami wants to run and how often Malik Willis scrambles, there will still be 450 targets available.

Dontayvion Wicks, PHI (WR84/WR45)

Why is Makai Lemon expected to be a strong No. 2 WR for Philly as a rookie? Maybe he will be, but Lemon goes 45 WR slots higher than Wicks. The latter is free. He wasn’t free in free agency, signing a one-year $12.5 million contract — starter money. And I’m basically just following the money here. No need really for any other data, unless you think the Eagles are idiots (I think they’re one of the smartest teams). The market indicates A.J. Brown’s vacated workload will be split between Lemon and Wicks at a 12-5 ratio, advantage Lemon, but I project a 10-7 split — advantage Wicks, and I can see a world where Wicks has the 12-5 edge.