Make no mistake, the Minnesota Wild are in roster purgatory. Not only is the State of Hockey waiting for resolution on the Quinn Hughes situation, but the top of their lineup feels mighty incomplete. Looking at their projected lineup on Daily Faceoff sort of says it all.
There’s nothing wrong with thinking Danila Yurov could take a big step in his sophomore season, or being intrigued by Max Shabanov. Still, asking two second-year players who combined for 45 points last year to thrive with Kirill Kaprizov, who scored 45 goals by himself, is a lot to ask.
Bill Guerin started this offseason married to the idea of trading for Dylan Larkin. And why wouldn’t he? Larkin is a dreamboat for what the Wild want — a fast, two-way center whose competitiveness is unquestioned. But with the trade talks not just at a standstill, but on hold entirely until the Detroit Red Wings get a new GM, Guerin is standing alone at the altar.
The question is, for how long?
Assuming the Wild are correct in their optimism in finding an extension for Hughes, the Wild will enter the season with some definite strengths. Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Blake Coleman should form a line that can punish opponents at both ends of the ice. The power play triumvirate of Hughes, Kaprizov, and Boldy is primed for a huge season. Adding Coleman and Olli Määttä and losing Jake Middleton will likely improve the penalty kill. Hughes and Brock Faber will get a chance to prove they are the best defensive pair in the league.
But then you look at the top of that lineup and wonder, how are the Wild going to keep Kaprizov dangerous at 5-on-5?
An underrated reason the Wild passed on Mats Zuccarello this offseason might be that Kaprizov had his least-productive season at 5-on-5 last season. Only Connor McDavid, Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini had more 5-on-5 minutes than Kaprizov. Yet, the Wild’s superstar finished tied for 36th with 40 points with both teams at full strength.
With Zuccarello entering his age-39 season, it’s easy to see why the Wild might assume further decline from this duo, despite their unreal chemistry. But it’s hard to assume that Kaprizov will be a dominant 5-on-5 force again with Zuccarello swapped out for Shabanov or Bobby Brink. If he is, then hand that guy the Hart Trophy.
Otherwise, the Wild’s best bet might be to do something John Hynes resists: Playing Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy together full-time. Minnesota wants to maximize the time on ice where they have deployed an elite player, and that’s sound logic, especially in the playoffs. Teams need a second punch when going against the best teams in a seven-game series.
But the Wild aren’t doing that, at least, not for a while. They barely even play the Central Division’s big dogs until February. Minnesota plays the Colorado Avalanche at home on the day after Thanksgiving, then not again until March 17. Their first game against the Dallas Stars isn’t until January 30.
The Wild will play 15 of their first 26 games against teams that missed the postseason last year. There are plenty of teams that the Wild can overwhelm by letting a loaded top line run, and have the bottom nine play to a tie. And few lines are as capable of destroying the NHL as Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, and Boldy.
Over the past three years, these three have played almost 672 minutes together at 5-on-5, outscoring opponents 45-to-25. The trio controlled 60.4% of the expected goal share over that time, which would have ranked 8th among 80 forward lines with 200-plus minutes last year.
By the time the schedule starts toughening up near the end of November, trading season should be ramping up. The Wild made their franchise-changing trade last year on December 12. It’s easy to see a situation where two-plus months of an unhappy Larkin convince Detroit to finally rip off the band-aid and move on.
Maybe that Larkin trade comes before the October 1 opener, and the Wild will get to ascend into contender status. But until then (or they lose another top center from another team), the Wild are going to need to figure out a way to survive with an incomplete roster. It’s no permanent solution, but loading up their top line might be the duct tape that patches Minnesota up until a big name can swoop in to save the day.
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