Fitch Solutions predict halt in monetary policy easing in 2026
Fitch Solutions expects the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to halt its monetary policy easing cycle in the second half of 2026 as inflationary pressures re-emerge.
According to the research agency, although inflation is projected to return to the BoG’s 6.0–10.0% target range in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, it is likely to rise above the upper threshold in the second quarter of 2026.
Fitch attributes this rebound to the unwinding of favourable base effects from the cedi’s appreciation in April–May 2025. It also notes that with Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility arrangement with the IMF set to end in April 2026, the country’s budget deficit is expected to widen, from a projected 3.7% of GDP in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, adding further inflationary pressure.
“Against this backdrop, we expect the BoG to hold rates steady through H2 2026. We project that the Bank of Ghana will lower its benchmark interest rate to 23% by end-2025 and 20% by end-2026, following the steep 300-basis-point cut to 25% in July 2025,” Fitch stated.
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The firm also forecasts average inflation to decline from 22.9% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2025 and 12.2% in 2026, supporting a dovish policy stance at the final MPC meeting of 2025 and the first three meetings of 2026.
Meanwhile, Fitch expects the BoG to cut the policy rate by 100 basis points to 24% at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in September.
SP/MA
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