Arch Manning was again one of the most hotly debated passers among our panel of coaches, general managers, scouts and front office staffers in our second annual attempt to rank every FBS starting quarterback in The Athletic’s College QB Tiers.
Manning ranks as a Tier 1 quarterback for the second straight year and moved up three spots from last July to No. 7 this preseason. But he’s not quite as high on this list as he is in some 2027 NFL Draft projections — including that of The Athletic’s draft expert Dane Brugler, who had Manning No. 1 in his way-too-early 2027 mock draft. Keep in mind that College Quarterback Tiers is not a draft projection, but a ranking as a current college quarterback.
Why did Manning rank highly again, yet fall short of the top five? Here’s what the coaches, general managers and staffers we talked to think (all spoke on the condition of anonymity so they could offer candid opinions about an opposing player).
What makes Arch Manning such a polarizing prospect?
Sam Khan Jr.
There’s still a lot of love for his physical talent
What the 6-foot-4, 226-pound Manning possesses — good size, arm strength and running ability — is often one of the first things people cite when evaluating him.
“He’s big, fast, he’s the whole package as a player,” a Group of 6 general manager said. “I just don’t know how you go wrong with a guy like that.”
An SEC general manager said Manning “has all the tools,” and an SEC front office staffer remarked how enjoyable it is to watch Manning throw pregame.
“When you watch him in warmups, he’s so good,” the front office staffer said. “It was so fun to watch him throw. I was just staring. For me, there’s no question about his arm or his talent. … He’s got all the tools and he’ll make some plays where you’re like, ‘Wow.’”
There are still skeptics
Though several coaches and staffers we spoke with considered Manning a top-10 quarterback nationally, two Power 4 head coaches were not as high.
One called Manning “just OK” and “a bit overhyped.” Another said Manning is good, but not elite.
“I’m not a huge Arch fan,” the second Power 4 head coach said. “I think he’s just a good player. All (the mechanics) are clean. I don’t know, there’s something about guys who win. In high school, he didn’t win championships. College, it’s only been one year but he still hasn’t. He doesn’t win.
“There’s something there where I’m like, ‘Man, you have better players and you’re not winning.’ Maybe I’m way wrong, but there’s always something there.”
The SEC front office staffer, who called Manning “good,” acknowledged that there may be too much buildup for Manning again this year and that he wants to see improvement in the smaller things that nagged at Manning last season.
“Everything about what we’re doing (with the Manning preseason hype) is exactly what we did last year. It’s the same picture. What has he gotten better at?” the staffer said. “His head and his base are all over the place when he goes to throw, and that’s why he misses the intermediate stuff. My issue with him is he didn’t fix that. And if he doesn’t fix that, he’s not gonna be good.
“He’s topped out at the things he can get better at and the things he can get better at are not the thing people tend to progress year to year with. My issue with Arch Manning being one of the top quarterbacks is I just don’t see him taking that step of being the best quarterback in the conference.”
Manning rebounding from his rough start won supporters
One thing nearly everyone we spoke with pointed out was how Manning played down the stretch in 2025.
Manning endured some growing pains, struggling in the first half of the season as he adapted to being a full-time starter for the first time and adjusted to an offensive line that, in the first half of the season, allowed the sixth-highest pressure rate among Power 4 teams, per PFF. (Texas ended the season having allowed the 18th-highest pressure rate in the Power 4.) And Manning himself admitted last year that he had a lot of progress to make.
He improved in most passing categories in the second half of the season, including completion percentage, off-target percentage, yards per attempt, yards per play, touchdown-to-interception ratio and interception rate.
Arch Mannning 2025 stats
StatFirst 7 gamesLast 6 games
Comp %
60.3
62.3
Pass yards
1,449
1,714
Pass TD
12
14
INT
5
2
Efficiency
140.4
148.9
Yards/attempt
7.7
8.0
Yards/play
6.65
7.71
Total TDs
17
20
Off-target %
15.9
13.5
“You’ve got to tip your cap to that kid, because after the start of last year, to be able to rebound the way that he did and play as good as he did down the stretch is really impressive and something that not very many people would be able to do,” a Big 12 offensive coordinator said. “So you got to have a lot of respect for that kid and what he did. And I think he’s pretty dang good.
“Some of those clips you see later in the year when he was a little bit more comfortable playing with a little more confidence, he really made some big-time throws and you can see the athleticism kind of show up.”
An SEC general manager who classified Manning as “top tier” in the SEC and in the country cited Manning’s physical ability and emphasized his persistence.
“Got better throughout the year,” the general manager said. “Saw leadership, saw tenacity. He would be in the top tier in the country.”
Said the Group of 6 GM: “I think he’s the best out there.”
No matter how opponents feel, there’s still a ton of intrigue and interest in how Manning — and the Longhorns — fare in 2026, especially after an all-in offseason that included signing a top-five transfer portal class led by former Auburn receiver Cam Coleman.
“He’s probably going to have a really good season,” the Big 12 offensive coordinator said. “And he’s got unbelievable weapons around him this year too. So I’ll be surprised if Texas is not really good on offense.”