The main character of Major League Baseball’s trade deadline this season is someone who may not actually change teams: Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal, the American League’s Cy Young Award winner the last two seasons, is a game-changer. Also, he is set for free agency after this season. And the Tigers (48-54, 4 1/2 games out in the wild-card standings) are not a lock to make the playoffs, let alone threaten a meaningful postseason run.

“I think they hold him,” one National League exec mused, noting the mediocrity of the American League, and how the Tigers are one good week from being back into contention.

“How could you not trade him?” said a different NL official, looking at Detroit’s meh performance over 100-plus games and the astronomical return a true No. 1 starter could fetch in a seller’s market.

That debate will likely consume Detroit’s front office in the days ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will take that time to reassess the outlook for the club, which was hammered by early injuries but is playing in a division that remains winnable.

This team was not built to be disassembled.

Framber Valdez signed a three-year, $115 million contract before the start of spring training with the idea that he could line up behind Skubal in a playoff rotation. Justin Verlander didn’t come back to Detroit, the last stop on a Cooperstown-worthy career, so that he could watch a sell-off at the deadline. Extending a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer to Gleyber Torres last offseason helped push Detroit’s Opening Day commitments past $200 million and into the sport’s top 10 payrolls.

Although time is running out, the Tigers still have an opportunity to change the trajectory of their season. Their last 10 games before the deadline are all against teams that are  sub-.500. They are scheduled to play the three teams in front of them in the AL Central 20 more times in August and September.

With just under two weeks left before the deadline, the industry’s biggest question is whether or not the Tigers end up dealing the left-hander.

Just in case they do, and after speaking with officials from various organizations across the league, The Athletic weighed every club’s chances of trading for Skubal and grouped those potential landing spots.

Tier 9: Not happening

Teams:

Colorado Rockies,

Los Angeles Angels,

Kansas City Royals,

San Francisco Giants,

Cincinnati Reds,

Athletics

For these teams at the bottom of the standings, the only thing smaller than their paltry playoff odds are their respective chances of acquiring Skubal.

Tier 8: Maybe in free agency

Teams:

New York Mets,

Toronto Blue Jays

The Mets, despite carrying the sport’s second-highest payroll, are a classic seller. The Blue Jays, despite winning the AL pennant last year, are fighting to remain a playoff contender. Both could be awfully motivated to reel in Skubal after the season. But his free agency, with a potential lockout looming, is a conversation for a different time.

Tier 7: Playoff contenders, but also not happening

Teams:

Boston Red Sox,

Chicago White Sox,

Pittsburgh Pirates,

Miami Marlins,

Cleveland Guardians,

Texas Rangers,

Seattle Mariners,

Houston Astros,

Minnesota Twins,

St. Louis Cardinals,

Arizona Diamondbacks,

Baltimore Orioles,

Washington Nationals

This grouping contains diversity. There are a handful of bubble teams unsure of their direction regarding the trade deadline. There are a few good-not-great teams. And while Skubal would enhance any roster, there are a couple of teams with more pressing needs than a top starter.

Regardless of the specifics behind why a team finds itself in this tier, the general theme is shared: The team’s situation doesn’t line up with justifying the cost of acquiring Skubal.

For example, the White Sox, firmly in the mix for a playoff spot after losing 100-plus games for three straight seasons, eye a top-of-the-rotation starter, but may see adding a mid-rotation arm as more pragmatic. Teams such as the White Sox and Diamondbacks are looking to add — just probably not someone in the category of Skubal.

As one National League executive put it, “You’re not risking the farm for one player like Skubal unless you’re really, really good.”

Tier 6: A league of his own

Team:

San Diego Padres

Executives from other teams admire A.J. Preller’s conviction and gall. The Padres president of baseball operations goes for it. Even, perhaps, when the odds are stacked against him.

The Padres’ farm system is thin, but rival executives said Preller’s ability to identify amateur talent gives him a better chance than most at replenishing quickly.

Still, San Diego’s playoff chances, per FanGraphs, are 9.2 percent. They are not playing well. The wiser move may be to sell.

On the other hand, they are three games out of the final wild-card spot, and pitching is a need …

As long as Preller is in, don’t count him out. The Padres are a long shot for Skubal, but scouts and executives believe Preller would love to somehow snatch him.

Tier 5: The model says no, but …

Team:

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have such a glaring need at the top of their rotation that putting the odds at zero percent right now would be a miscalculation. Skubal to Wrigley Field can’t be completely ruled out yet when the playoff probabilities are this high and the everyday lineup is so solid on both sides of the ball. But if the price is going to be exorbitant, Jed Hoyer’s front office is aiming more for a starting pitcher who remains under club control beyond this season, as well as bullpen reinforcements. This would also be a much different conversation internally if the Cubs were leading their division and trending toward a first-round bye in the playoffs. As it stands, the cost of getting maybe one postseason start out of Skubal in a wild-card series will likely push the Cubs in a different direction, perhaps toward another rental starter in a deal that better aligns with their projection-based system.

Tier 4: Small-market surprise?

Team:

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are yet another team with rotation concerns. They are monitoring Jacob Misiorowski’s innings and awaiting Kyle Harrison’s return from an elbow injury. Still, their recent history does not indicate they would part with the necessary prospects for Skubal, or take on the $10 million or so that his contract would cost for the final two months.

“I do wonder whether this is a little bit different,” one NL executive said.

From the executive’s point of view, the Brewers are better than ever. A rotation duo of Skubal and Misiorowski would make them all the more formidable. Also, would the unknowns about 2027 change their calculus about this year’s team? Armed with baseball’s best farm system, per The Athletic’s Keith Law, the Brewers have the pieces to pull off a deal for Skubal, even if it is against their nature to do so.

Tier 3: Fits on paper

Teams:

Philadelphia Phillies,

New York Yankees,

Atlanta Braves

Among this trio, the Braves’ need for rotation help is most dire. In the past, however, Alex Anthopoulos has swung more modest deals in hopes of gains on the margins. The Braves are in the market for rotation help and could conceivably part with some of their young pitching to get it, but it remains to be seen how big they go.

The Yankees, despite their struggles without Aaron Judge, should consider any move that bolsters their World Series odds. (Assuming Judge returns, at least.) The Yankees boast a strong rotation featuring Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Ryan Weathers, but Carlos Rodon remains out with an elbow injury.

Similarly, the Phillies’ rotation, with Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo is strong, but that doesn’t mean they won’t add. Philadelphia could use a back-end type just for innings. But considering the collective age of their core players — and Dave Dombrowski’s penchant for going all-in — rival executives assume the Phillies have interest in Skubal. Their only question is whether Philadelphia’s mediocre farm system holds enough talent to make the most attractive offer.

“I don’t put anything past Dombrowski,” one NL executive said. “He will be in it. I don’t know if he has the chips. But I don’t put it past him. Especially with the age that that team is, with 2027’s uncertainty looming, at some point we know that group is going to age out. Though it hasn’t happened yet to their credit.”

Tier 2: Everyone’s favorite dark horse

Team:

Tampa Bay Rays

According to multiple executives, whenever the Rays’ playoffs odds are high, they’ve always tried to go big-game hunting. One year, they added Nelson Cruz. Another year, they tried for Shohei Ohtani.

If Skubal becomes available, the industry expects the Rays to act aggressively. The Rays and the Yankees are the two top teams in what is otherwise a mediocre American League. They are looking for a starter, and Skubal, alongside Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan would create a formidable trio for the playoffs.

“They have the system to do it,” an AL executive said.

Tier 1: The industry favorite

Team:

Los Angeles Dodgers

If there’s a big name in play, the Dodgers will be there, scanning the perimeter to see what makes sense. Andrew Friedman’s club is rarely in the position where it needs to concede to other’s demands. Few teams have both the prospect capital and the financial security to even consider trading for Skubal. And the Dodgers have made clear that anything less than a third consecutive World Series title this year would be a failure.

So of course it makes sense the industry sees Los Angeles as Skubal’s most logical destination.

“I assume the Dodgers will land him,” one NL exec said.

If the Dodgers want Skubal, they’ll get him. But is there really a need? The Dodgers are not chasing the record for most wins in the regular season. Their priorities are staying healthy and locking down a first-round bye. They only need four starting pitchers in the postseason, and their projected rotation (barring injury) of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow sure did just fine last October.

Friedman prefers to lay low at the deadline. Dishing out lucrative contracts, regardless of tax penalties and forfeited bonus pool money, has become his norm. But he’s much more prudent about his prospects and farm system. He loathes to overpay at the deadline.

The Dodgers may seem like the obvious favorite, but unless a true need in the rotation appears in the next two weeks, they could very well be one of the least active teams this deadline. But that all depends on health. Dodgers brass will certainly be watching Ohtani, who was taken out of the rotation for the foreseeable future as he monitors the left-knee inflammation that has impacted him for a month. Snell is working his way back from bone chip removal surgery and is set to make his second rehab start Friday. Glasnow, who has missed most of the season with recurring back spasms, should face live hitters by next week. In a perfect world, the Dodgers have their rotation back at full strength just in time for playoffs. But if a need arises, they’re prepared — per usual — to pivot.

As one NL official said: The Dodgers are “always” lurking.