Welcome to the Tomahawk Nation members’ 12th annual way-too-early win-share predictions for the 2026 Florida State football season. Let’s have some fun.
It’s that time of year when the sun is shining brightly, the grass is green, and optimism reigns supreme, bringing a sense of hope and a positive outlook for the upcoming football fall camp and for the 2026 season.
With the our preview series in the books and fall camp upon us, we thought that we would check what your expectations for the FSU 2026 football season are at this point. So let’s do our pre-fall camp win-share exercise, the same one we have done for the past 12 pre-seasons, to help get an idea of the confidence level the fanbase has heading into fall camp.
But first, for the unfamiliar, let’s explain what win shares are. Win shares are a simple exercise in which, instead of assigning a simple win or loss for a game, you assign the probability of a given outcome.
For example, if you think that FSU has a 99% chance of beating New Mexico State, a 65% chance of beating SMU, a 45% chance of beating Alabamer, and a 98% chance of beating Central Arkansas, your entries would look like this:
After filling in your win percentage for the 12 games listed below, add up those 12 percentages, and that total sum is the number of games you are predicting the 2026 FSU football team will win next season.
For example, I asked TN Staff Member Excelsius Rodriguez for his pre-fall win-share predictions for use in this story. Here are Excelsius’s win-share percentages:
TN staff member Excelsius Rodriguez’s W/S projections:
Excelsius’s win share total for the 2026 season = 8.48 – meaning he predicts FSU will win between 8 and 9 games in 2026.
To play along, fill out the form below, then share your results in the comment section.
Warning: You may be subjected to ridicule.
So let’s get mathin’ and projectin’ and share your realistic W/S expectations for the 2026 season in the comments below.