With a majority of U.S. voters expressing deep concern over inflation and the rising cost of groceries and gas, according to recent polling, economic affordability is shaping up as a decisive issue for this year’s midterm election. Democrats are looking to leverage these frustrations against Republicans, much as the issue fueled political shifts in 2024.
In the wake of rising energy prices following the start of the Iran war in late February, Americans are pessimistic about the direction taken by the U.S. economy, with 44 percent saying the economic conditions in the country today are “poor,” according to the latest Gallup survey. A Fox News Poll conducted between July 17-20 found that 54 percent of registered voters surveyed believed Democrats would better handle the economy than Republicans, who were at 45 percent, indicating Americans want change.
An even bigger majority (67 percent) in Fox News’ poll disapproved of how President Donald Trump is handling the economy, as his approval rating remains near record low.
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However, data from the Newsweek American Dream Index reveals that the cost of living is notably higher in blue-leaning states while remaining relatively lower in red and battleground states.
Understanding the American Dream Index
The Newsweek American Dream Index evaluates all 33,772 U.S. ZIP codes on a scale from 0 to 100 across six core pillars of opportunity:
Economic mobilityEmployment qualityEducation and skillsHousing accessNew business formationCost of living
For this article, however, we are going to look at the cost of living only—one of the factors considered in the overall scores.
How High the Cost of Living Is in Red and Blue States
The cost of living measures how far a U.S. household can stretch a paycheck. As a quick rule of thumb to interpret the scores:
65 and over: Thriving55–64: Doing Well45–54: Holding Steady35–44: Facing Challenges35 and less: Struggling
Among the states with the lowest score for cost of living, where households are struggling or facing challenges, are Hawaii (24.1), California (25.2), New York (27.7), New Jersey (30.7), Florida (31.1), Washington (33.2), and Oregon (34.1).
All of these states, with the exception of Florida, voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, in the 2024 presidential election and have been traditionally considered “blue,” or Democratic-leaning.
On the other hand, states with the highest score for cost of living, where households are doing well and thriving, are in states that voted for Trump in 2024 and are generally considered “red” or Republican-leaning, such as North Dakota (74.7), Iowa (74.3), and South Dakota (72.1).
But the cost of living is not all that voters will be considering when they head to the ballot in November. States like Hawaii, California, and New York have slightly higher scores for economic mobility (82.1, 68.0, and 68.5, respectively) than North Dakota (75.2), Iowa (64.5), or South Dakota (67.7) and score better on education (with Hawaii, California, and New York at 61.6, 62.6, 65.6, respectively, while North Dakota, Iowa, and South Dakota are at 54.9, 54.7, and 54.4, respectively).
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: John Fitzpatrick and Anthony Murray.