Make a statement more generic than this: the Michigan Wolverines will go as far as their quarterback takes them. With an 8.5 win total, the range of outcomes is vast for Michigan this fall. Many see this line as a smash under; others see the Wolverines as a sneaky playoff team despite a schedule that is loaded from front to back.
Despite the coaching change and offseason drama, as well as the ever-revolving door of the transfer portal, everything still hinges on Bryce Underwood. The No. 1-overall recruit enters his sophomore season with plenty to work on, having failed to impress in Year 1. He finally has proper coaching, though, and a big leap forward would be far from unprecedented when it comes to players of his caliber.
All eyes will be on Underwood in the opener against Western Michigan, as the home team should have little trouble winning the game. Instead, how the phenom looks will be the real test, as will his stat line from Week 1. What should the debut of Year 2 look like for the program’s cornerstone? To answer that question, we must take a look back, starting 12 months ago.
Early hope, but a dark finale
It was not a guarantee that Underwood would start immediately last season, but he did in fact take the field against New Mexico. A rough game in Norman followed, but was not unexpected, and the freshman quarterback bounced back nicely against Central Michigan in Week 3. Against these two Group of Five opponents, Underwood completed 66.1 percent of his passes, with a passer rating exceeding 140 in both games, throwing one interception but two touchdowns, as well as rushing in for two more.
Contrast those numbers with the final two games. Ohio State and Texas are obviously completely different animals, but it is hard to forget just how bad those outings were. 51.7 percent completion rate, two touchdowns to four picks, languishing passer ratings, and limited confidence — both from the fanbase and the quarterback himself.
All in all, the numbers were not pretty for Underwood’s rookie season. Amongst 100 qualified quarterbacks, he ranked 88th in completion rate, 70th in yards per attempt, 99th in passing touchdowns, and 94th in passer rating. Even for an offense that features the run and a head coach that was…not focused on football, this is pretty rough.
What, then, are the expectations for Game 1? Meeting (and exceeding) last year’s averages are a must. That should not be too tough! 0.8 touchdowns per game? 7.2 yards per attempt? 186.8 passing yards? Against a cupcake, these are well within range, and even if it is only one game, I would not fault the fanbase from panicking should Underwood fail to produce immediately.
Those stats from the early contests against New Mexico and CMU are even more reason to think the sophomore should be ready to fire right away. Underwood was strong against the weaker competition, and then looked good against teams like Wisconsin and Washington in the middle of the season. He struggled against the top competition, which will be less excusable this season, but there is evidence he can take down the overmatched opponents.
If I had to set the line for the opener, I would need to see at least 250 yards on 65-percent passing with multiple touchdown throws. Western projects to be better defensively than on the other side of the ball, but that is not enough to cause any real concern. If I was forced to call my shot a month out, I think Underwood goes for nearly 300 yards and three-plus passing touchdowns, with perhaps one with his legs as well.
This feels both extreme and absolutely necessary. Underwood has a lot of doubters to prove wrong, and starting with a big game would be the best way to silence his critics. How he performs in Week 2 will matter significantly more, but putting himself behind the eight ball after a meek opener might lead to disaster. Everyone knows Michigan is dependent on its quarterback’s growth, so bar must be set decently high from the very start of the 2026 campaign. He was good in these games last year, making this a completely reasonable expectation.