As U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs kicks inpushing U.S. trade duties to their highest levels since World War IIthere’s a lot of noise about deglobalization and reshoring. But if you follow the numbers instead of the headlines, a very different story is playing out. A.P. Moller-Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told investors that global container volumes could grow up to 4% this year, fueled largely by Chinese firms gaining ground outside the U.S. A few years of stronger trade momentum could lie ahead, Clerc noted. That optimism is backed by DHL, which saw U.S.-bound express deliveries plunge 31% in Q2, while shipments to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa rose steadily. The underlying trend? Global trade is still movingjust on different routes.
While U.S. imports from China have taken a double-digit hit, China isn’t standing still. It’s been busy redirecting its exports to new growth zonesfrom Southeast Asia to the Middle East to Africa. According to DWS Group, this isn’t a short-term patchit’s a strategic pivot. With over 30% of the world’s manufacturing capacity and a growing edge in affordable EVs and clean tech, China is positioning itself as the supplier of choice for the Global South. Meanwhile, HSBC and Standard Chartered executives are calling AsiaMiddle East corridors some of the fastest growing in the world. Intra-regional trade flowsonce overlookedare becoming the new global engine.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other multinationals that hoped to hedge their bets via the China+1 strategy may find that path narrowing. Rising tariffs on Southeast Asian countries and tighter controls on transshipped goods could make diversification harder than expected. But that’s not stopping the rest of the world from doing business with each other. Brazil and India just reiterated plans to deepen trade ties. The long-delayed EUMercosur deal is finally on the table. As NYU’s Steven Altman put it: the U.S. might be stepping back, but globalization isn’t going awayit’s just learning to live without Washington.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.