And then there were 50 in the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs. Well, technically, there are only 49 golfers in this week’s BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Sepp Straka withdrew for personal reasons. But the top 50 in the PGA TOUR’s season-long standings advance to the BMW, with the top 30 earning a spot in next week’s TOUR Championship. 

Caves Valley hosted the 2021 BMW, when Patrick Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff when they shot -27 in 72 holes. After the TOUR’s best destroyed this place, the club decided changes were needed. Hence, the Par-72 was turned into a Par-70. Every hole has new green complexes, and a new drainage system was installed to make the course firmer and faster. 

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My 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship ended after the first round. Only one of my outright picks finished inside the top 20 (Hideki Matsuyama), and he “backdoored” it with a final-round 65. Now, my 2025 PGA TOUR balance is -23.73 units (u). I’m loading up on my One-And-Done pick this week, and I have an opportunity to make the biggest score in my sports betting career. Read how below. 

2025 BMW Championship Betting Card

Best bets for Caves Valley Golf Club 

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000) via FanDuel, risking 0.63u to profit 25u.Ben Griffin (+4000) via FanDuel, risking 0.5u.Rickie Fowler (+6000) via FanDuel, risking 0.33u.Rory McIlroy (+220) over Scottie Scheffler via DraftKings, risking 1u.Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000) 

Last week, Fitzpatrick was the third betting favorite at the St. Jude, where he finished T32. This week, he has the 15th-best odds to win the BMW. That’s a big overreaction considering Fitzpatrick didn’t play that bad at the St. Jude and was playing really well going into it. He shot 67, 69, and 69 in three rounds, and +1 in the other round, while gaining 6.3 strokes with his short-game (around-the-green and putting) at the St. Jude last week. 

The Englishman struggled in the ball-striking (off-the-tee and approach play) department, and TPC Southwind, host of the St. Jude, is a tough test tee-to-green (T2G). However, perhaps that’s an outlier performance because, over the last two months, Fitzpatrick has been 12th in this field for ball-striking, according to Betsperts Golf. 

Matt Fitzpatrick putts on the 18th green during the final round of the 2025 Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo credit: Allison Lawhon-Imagn Images)

Matt Fitzpatrick putts on the 18th green during the final round of the 2025 Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo credit: Allison Lawhon-Imagn Images)

Since Caves Valley is easy T2G, he should have a bounce-back performance ball-striking this week. Otherwise, Fitzpatrick is second in Strokes Gained (SG): Short-game in this field over the last three months. This includes three majors, two “signature events,” and the first round of the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs, aka strong fields at difficult courses. 

Finally, Fitzpatrick won the 2022 U.S. Open and the 2023 RBC Heritage, the first year it was a “signature event,” so he won’t be overwhelmed by the pressure of winning a BMW Championship. It’s not like people will tell their grandchildren where they were when someone won the 2025 BMW, like Rory at the Masters. 

Ben Griffin (+4000) 

This is a great price for Griffin based on his recent form. He got his first solo PGA TOUR victory, the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, after winning the Zurich Classic, a team event, with Andrew Novak. Griffin has seven other top-10 finishes this year, including a T8 at the 2025 PGA Championship, second at the Memorial Tournament, T10 at the U.S. Open, and T9 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. 

Ben Griffin posing with his fiancee and the championship trophy after winning the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. (Photo Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images)

Ben Griffin posing with his fiancée and the championship trophy after winning the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. (Photo Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images)

Also, Griffin is a good course fit for this place. While there have been changes to Caves Valley since 2021, when seven guys shot -20 or lower, such as making it a Par-70, the 2025 BMW will still be a “birdie-fest”. Over the last six months, Griffin is 10th in this field in Birdie-or-Better rate and eighth in Bogey Avoidance, per Betsperts Golf.   

Furthermore, Tom Fazio designed Caves Valley. He also worked on this year’s PGA Championship (Quail Hollow Club) and U.S. Open (Oakmont Country Club) courses, and PGA National, host of the Cognizant Classic, where Griffin finished T4 this year. He was T4 at the Mexico Open in February at VidantaWorld, another “bomber’s paradise” like Caves Valley. Muirfield Village Golf Club, host of the Memorial, is another long course with penal rough and small greens. 

Rickie Fowler (+6000) 

Don’t rule out Rickie winning because he is 48th in the FedExCup standings. Keegan Bradley snuck into the BMW Championship last year on the bubble and won. Fowler played his way into the BMW by finishing T6 at the St. Jude last week. It was his fifth straight start gaining strokes with his driver, which is what you want to see heading into Caves Valley. 

Over that span, Rickie has three T18 finishes or better: T18 at the John Deere Classic, played at a crossover course to Caves Valley, T14 at The 153rd Open Championship, and last week’s T6. His second-best finish of the season was a T7 at the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Golf Village, which is another driver-heavy course with small Bentgrass greens. 

He was fifth in the field last week for SG: Ball-Striking and has gained strokes with his putter in four of his last five starts. Fowler just needs to put everything together, and he’ll end his two-plus-year losing streak. And, at this price, I’m willing to take a shot on Rickie. 

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Rory McIlroy (+220) over Scottie Scheffler 

No disrespect to Scottie, who is unquestionably No. 1 in the world, but Rory hits the ball further and has a hotter putter right now. Caves Valley is a long, birdie-fest, and McIlroy leads this field in driving distance and second in this field in approach shots from 175+ yards over the last 30 rounds, per BetTheNumber.com. 

Rory McIlroy hits an approach shot during the final round of the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. (Photo Credit: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Rory McIlroy hits an approach shot during the final round of the 2021 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. (Photo Credit: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

He is second in this field for SG: Putting over the last three months, according to Betsperts Golf. He’s gained more than 21 strokes on the greens in his last four starts. For what it’s worth, Rory was fourth in the 2021 BMW at Caves Valley, whereas Scheffler was T22. Albeit Scottie has surpassed McIlroy as the best golfer in the world since. 

Nonetheless, Rory is definitely the second-best. His +220 odds at DraftKings in this matchup have a 31% implied win probability, and I have McIlroy beating Scheffler at least 40% of the time. Betsperts Golf backs this up and gives Rory +129 break-even odds vs. Scottie, which has a 44% implied win probability. 

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BMW Championship 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Matt Fitzpatrick

Even though I still have higher-rated players available, like Hideki, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele, it’s just worth it for me to use Fitzpatrick here. He’s playing well, aka “could win” (probably not), and is a contrarian play since the 17 entries ahead of me in the Mayo Cup standings have already used him.

And if Fitzpatrick does, and I pick him, it would add $3.6 million to my season winnings, putting me $800,000-ish ahead of the entry in second, which is worth $70,000. I’m currently in 18th in the Mayo Cup, which pays $6,500. So, stick with me here, as we go on this journey through my “gambling logic” …  

Cameron Young got $800,000 with his fifth-place finish at last week’s St. Jude, which has a similar pay structure as this week’s BMW. Meanwhile, no one ahead of me in the Mayo Cup standings has Scottie, Rory, or Cantlay left. Cantlay is tied for the fifth-best odds to win this year, and is kind of “due” for a nice performance.

Plus, random, unpopular Mayo Cup picks usually contend, and occasionally win golf tournaments. Recent examples include Justin Rose at last week’s St. Jude, Young at the 2025 Wyndham Championship, Chris Gotterup at the Genesis Scottish Open, and J.J. Spaun at the U.S. Open. 

Meaning, I can finish second in the Mayo Cup with a Fitzpatrick win at the BMW and Scheffler, Rory, Cantlay, or maybe 30 other “random” golfers filling in the other top-five spots. Yet, I only fell to 18th in the Mayo Cup after the St. Jude, despite my pick, Gotterup, finishing T54 because Rose won, Spaun finished second, and Scheffler T3, and pretty much no one picked those guys.

Wrapping it up, since the payout for Mayo Cup entries from 18-20 in the standings is $6,500, even if Fitzpatrick sucks this week, I might not lose any money. Conversely, there’s a possibility I could go from making $6,500 to $70,000 if he wins.

Now that we’ve gotten to the end of my “gambling journey,” don’t you agree that using Fitzpatrick here has the highest upside?

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.Â