After a whiplash 48 hours, the U.S. Open men’s field has opened up in an unexpected way.
On Thursday, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz confirmed that he would return to tennis in New York, after four months out with a right wrist injury.
Less than 24 hours later, Jannik Sinner — the world No. 1 and dominant men’s player of 2026 in Alcaraz’s enforced absence — withdrew from the fourth Grand Slam of the year with a right knee injury.
That’s the opposite of what many fans expected, with Alcaraz not having played any competitive tennis since April; it changes the complexion of a draw that would otherwise have looked like Sinner against the world, the match he has been playing since spring.
The Athletic’s tennis team and some fellow aficionados make their case for who is going to emerge as champion in New York City on Sept. 13.
Jannik Sinner withdraws from U.S. Open with right knee injury
Ava Wallace
Carlos Alcaraz
Coming back from four months away, on the back of the injury that tennis players fear most, to defend a title that no man has defended since 2008? That would be beyond absurd.
Carlos Alcaraz has been “beyond absurd” so many times in his career to date that his putting the hammer down on the rest of the men’s game to win an eighth Grand Slam title doesn’t seem so far-fetched. Practically, Sinner’s withdrawal increases the likelihood of a Spanish remontada. The early rounds of a Grand Slam, in which five-set tennis offers a buffer against a rusty stanza, are in some ways the ideal environment to play himself into rhythm. And his status as a player returning from injury will act as a counterweight to the pressure of being defending champion.
Will opponents try to take advantage of any vulnerability, following the hyperaggressive blueprint that, say, Daniil Medvedev used to defeat a subdued Alcaraz at the BNP Paribas Open in March? They might. But doing that in best-of-five tennis is not the same in doing it in best-of-three, and Alcaraz’s best tennis of 2026 (and his U.S. Open run in 2025) came from his first serve offering both a solid platform and a release valve in tight moments.
In so many ways, a title win for him in New York would be remarkable. In so many others, it would just be Alcaraz doing Alcaraz things. That’s why it’s my pick, along with another possibility — but more on that in a second.
— James Hansen
Carlos Alcaraz surged to his second U.S. Open title in 2025. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
Alcaraz is the man to beat in New York. The 23-year-old Spaniard is returning after four months out with a wrist injury, but Sinner’s withdrawal removes his biggest rival. Before Alexander Zverev won this year’s French Open, Alcaraz and Sinner had shared the previous nine Grand Slam titles.
Alcaraz also has proof of dominance at Flushing Meadows. During last year’s title run, he held serve in 98 of 101 service games. The lack of match practice after a long absence is the obvious concern, but Alcaraz has won two of the past four U.S. Opens and, with Sinner out, no player in the field has matched his combination of recent major success and proven results in New York.
— Amelie Claydon
No player has defended a U.S. Open men’s singles title since Roger Federer in 2008.
Even more astonishingly, no man has won the U.S. Open without playing the Canadian Open or Cincinnati Masters leading into the event.
Which is why … I am going with Carlos Alcaraz. He’s already made history this year, becoming the youngest man to achieve the career Grand Slam. Why not make a little more?
Alcaraz doesn’t need to be 100 percent to win the U.S. Open, given the draw without Sinner. Sure, he hasn’t played since April 14 in Barcelona and wrist injuries are tricky to come back from. But Alcaraz, even at 70 to 80 percent, can succeed against most players in the draw. Call me foolish, but I see him going back-to-back.
— Lukas Weese
Alexander Zverev
My heart wants to say something epic. Alcaraz gets up off the couch and triumphs! Novak Djokovic gets 25! An American man — Ben Shelton; Taylor Fritz; Frances Tiafoe — wins a first Grand Slam men’s singles title for the host country since 2003!
My brain? It says Alexander Zverev. He’s been the best Grand Slam performer all year. He was a clean service game away from eliminating Alcaraz in the Australian Open semifinals. He picked up the pieces of a messy French Open and won his first Grand Slam title. Then, after a string of early or untimely exits at Wimbledon, he made the Wimbledon final, pushing Sinner hard for the first couple of hours.
He’s not been great since, losing his first match at the Canadian Open and squandering a match point against Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati Open round of 16. But unless he’s gassed, I find it hard to pick Alcaraz and his mysterious wrist, or 39-year-old Novak Djokovic, over Zverev.
— Matt Futterman
Alexander Zverev won his first major at the French Open earlier this year. (Getty Images)
Who do you want to win and who you think will win are two different questions, but it is hard to look past Zverev given his form in major tournaments. He pushed the world’s best — Alcaraz in Australia and Sinner in London — near to the limit. The German’s maiden Grand Slam victory in Paris seems to have unleashed an inner confidence within him, and his aim for this year and beyond is to go for his shots more. When he’s on song, there is very little that can stop his serve, he is hitting his forehand with more aggressiveness and his backhand is one of the best in the men’s game.
After his Wimbledon final defeat, Zverev said that to win it next year he just needs to continue doing the same thing. That shows absolute belief in his method, which is a daunting prospect for his opponents, who have previously relied on doubt, causing Zverev to tighten and not hit out in attacking positions.
His preparation for the U.S. Open has been patchy, but if he can find his rhythm, he may exploit the open draw, just like he did in Paris.
— Charlotte Harpur
Ben Shelton
What an odd few months for the frontrunners in tennis, both the men and the women. There’s a good argument for calling the whole U.S. Open thing off, letting everyone get healthy and/or sort out their demons, before we all reconvene in a few months in Australia. Who says no?
Everyone says no? Fine. Then the timing feels right for Shelton to win a Grand Slam.
He felt the sting of an opportunity wasted after falling in the first round at Wimbledon and showed he learned from that experience by going out and playing the smartest tennis of his career to win the Canadian Open in Montreal a few weeks later. An early loss at the ensuing Cincinnati Open might not have been the worst thing in the world, considering his shoulder broke down at the U.S. Open last year.
Shelton’s also a guy who loves the pressure of a big match, and any American man trying to end the drought of Grand Slam winners — in front of a home crowd, no less — will need mental strength out the wazoo. He also won’t have to beat Sinner this time, and Alcaraz is more vulnerable than he might otherwise be. Since Wimbledon 2024, every Shelton run to the last 16 or beyond at a major has ended in defeat to one of those two.
— Ava Wallace
Ben Shelton shot to prominence at the 2023 U.S. Open and loves playing in New York. (Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
The American man who can hold their nerve
Here’s that other possibility. I can’t pick an individual from the U.S. as an outright winner. Fritz has been to the final but has an unfortunate habit of contriving a defeat to a player he should not when opportunity knocks. Shelton shot to prominence at the 2023 tournament and loves the bright lights, but he will need to keep his serve-breaking habit from the Canadian Open, which was entirely out of keeping with the rest of his season.
Tiafoe is playing himself into form at the Cincinnati Open by beating a string of strong players in straight sets and Brandon Nakashima, one of those players, is full of confidence himself after reaching the Canadian Open final, but can they do it in five?
However, in an open draw and with doubts over Alcaraz and Djokovic, this will be the best shot many of these players might get for some time. They will have home-court advantage and fans roaring for the possibility of something historic. And there is a reasonable likelihood that two of them will end up playing each other on Arthur Ashe either for history, or for the chance to make it, which will lead to unforeseen levels of patriotic tension.
Do I think one of them will do it? Actually, yes, I think one of them might.
Just don’t ask me who.
Oh away from the Americans, a note on The Youth. It may seem wild that Rafael Jódar, Arthur Fils, Jakub Menšík et al aren’t cited here. For Jódar, winning a major as a teenager in the men’s game is now vanishingly rare. Alcaraz did at this tournament in 2022, but that came a full 17 years after Rafael Nadal at the 2005 French Open. For Fils and Menšík, both a little older, this event still feels too early. When one of them lifts the trophy, subscribers can send me hate mail.
— James Hansen
And finally … Daniil Medvedev — or someone like that?
Could the men’s draw at the U.S. Open be setting up to have a similar feel as the women’s side recently had for a good decade, sandwiched between runs by Serena Williams and Aryna Sabalenka? It’s a tantalizing thought, with Sinner out of the tournament and Alcaraz managing a wrist injury. Alcaraz is the betting favorite, but fans should be managing expectations for whether he’s physically ready for a run of seven straight wins in a best-of-five set format.
The dent in the field opens things up dramatically for people like Zverev, whose seeding at No. 1 overall gives him a strong path to at least reach the final. Djokovic will have cheers about as loud as the ones that will be heard for the Americans Shelton and Fritz, the type of adulation that often fizzles before the ultimate prize.
A smart pick would be Zverev, but a goofy field invites something messy like Medvedev, the 2021 champion, going on a heater.
— Oskar Garcia