Brewers can all but shut the door on Cubs in four-game Wrigley series

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The Chicago Cubs are a strong baseball team, blessed with excellent defense, a patched-up starting rotation and a lineup chock full of dangerous hitters, including an MVP candidate.

But they haven’t been able to catch the Milwaukee Brewers.

Chicago (77-60) welcomes Milwaukee to Wrigley Field for a four-game series that starts Monday, Aug. 31, knowing it needs three or four wins to gain ground and still make it a race in the National League Central.

Though Chicago is all but certain to make the playoffs, Milwaukee (85-52) again turns toward the last month of the season as the likely Central winner. The Brewers’ odds to win the division are either 99% if you ask Baseball Reference or 98% if you ask FanGraphs.

Here’s what to know about the Cubs as the Brewers look to slam the door on the division:

Who’s pitching in the series between the Brewers and Cubs?Aug. 31, 6:40 p.m.: Milwaukee LHP Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79 ERA) vs. Chicago RHP Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26). TV – Brewers.TV/FS1.Sept. 1, 6:40 p.m.: Milwaukee LHP Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.59) vs. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd (8-3, 3.99). TV – Brewers.TV/TBS.Sept. 2, 6:40 p.m.: Milwaukee RHP Jacob Misiorowski (14-5, 1.73) vs. Chicago LHP David Peterson (7-7, 5.11). TV – Brewers.TV.Sept. 3, 6:15 p.m.: Milwaukee RHP Logan Henderson (9-2, 2.48) vs. Chicago RHP Kevin Gausman (7-11, 4.37). TV – Fox.Can the Brewers win the division with a sweep?

Not yet. There is, after all, still a whole month of baseball left. They head into the series with a magic number of 18, meaning any combination of Brewers wins or Cubs losses adding up to 18 will do the trick.

If the Brewers win (and therefore, the Cubs lose) all four days, that only reduces the number by eight and leaves the Brewers at 10. Technically, it falls to nine because the Brewers will also land a tiebreaker in the process.

A Brewers sweep would leave open the door for an unlikely divisional clinch in a head-to-head series with the Cubs at home next week, but that would require the stars to align.

Wait, the Brewers play the Cubs next week, too?

It’s an interesting scheduling quirk that the Brewers play four games in Chicago and three in Cincinnati, then turn around and welcome both teams to American Family Field, first with three games against the Cubs and three more with the Reds.

Including the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road after that, the Brewers have 16 consecutive games against divisional opponents – at least they get a couple days off in there.

The Brewers only have three home series left – the Cubs and Reds on Sept. 7-13 and then the final three games of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sept. 25-27. The rest of September is on the road.

What’s the likelihood that the Brewers clinch the division at home?

Not great. If the Brewers sweep all seven games from the Cubs, they’d have the tiebreaker and need just three other outcomes to go their way – say, the Brewers win two of three against the Reds and the Miami Marlins win one of three over the Cubs over next weekend. That would allow the Brewers to clinch against the Cubs in their home game Sept. 9.

That’s an absurd best-case scenario. To clinch by Sept. 13 before hitting the road for a three-city road trip would also be a stretch, but it’s at least possible. More than likely, the Brewers will wrap the division during that trip to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Philadelphia.

The Brewers have a better chance of clinching a playoff spot of some kind at home, but they haven’t been as enthusiastic about celebrating that achievement in recent years, compared to locking up the division.

OK, so the Cubs … are they definitely going to make the playoffs?

You’ve probably seen the line, “The Cubs are closer to being out of the playoffs than in first place in the Central,” and while that’s true, they’re in incredible shape to win a wild-card spot.

They’re 4½ games ahead of the first team on the outside looking in. They’ve been locked into the No. 4 seed (the top wild card) spot for some time, though the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies have tied them.

Those two teams have been in their wild-card spots for a while and seem likely first-round opponents, but if Philadelphia bypasses the Cubs, then those games would be at Citizens Bank Park and not Wrigley Field. The Cubs have the tiebreaker over Philadelphia this year, so as of now, Chicago has the edge.

Speaking of tiebreakers, what do the Brewers need to get a tiebreaker over the Cubs?

The Brewers have a 4-2 lead in the season series with Chicago with seven games left. They need to win three games to clinch the tiebreaker, which would essentially drop their magic number by one in a head-to-head comparison with the Cubs, because a two-way tie would be just as good as winning outright.

Is Pete Crow-Armstrong going to win the National League MVP?Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) gestures after hitting a two-run home run during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.

Most prediction markets think so, and two things happened Saturday, Aug. 29 that strengthen his case. One is that he hit three home runs against the Reds in an electrifying performance. Two is the announcement that Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani, the other top MVP candidate, wasn’t going to make his scheduled start Sunday, Aug. 30 as he continued to negotiate knee pain.

Oh, and then Crow-Armstrong hit two more homers Sunday, albeit in a loss.

If Ohtani can’t pitch anymore this season, he won’t continue to build value in his unique way as an excellent hitter/pitcher combo. PCA, who adds elite defense to his offensive profile while Ohtani stays out of the field as designated hitter, would simply keep building his case.

Baseball Reference gives PCA an 8.3 WAR this year, leading all of baseball, with help from his otherworldly center-field defense. He leads the league with a .954 OPS, too, helped by 38 homers and 32 steals. He’s the complete package. Ohtani has a 6.6 WAR.

The Brewers haven’t seen what PCA is really capable of. He has a .160 batting average against Milwaukee in his career (albeit with five homers), with a .615 OPS and 34 strikeouts in 112 plate appearances. That doesn’t count his 2-for-17 in last year’s NL Division Series. He’s just 1-for-21 (a single) against the Brewers in six games this year.

How have the Cubs gotten better since earlier this season?

Milwaukee hasn’t faced the Cubs since late June, and there have been a series of additions since.

Brewers fans will recognize ex-Milwaukee outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who’s batting .368 since he arrived with a .879 OPS in 44 plate appearances. He was part of a fleet of deadline acquisitions, most of them addressing the pitching staff.

Former Toronto ace Kevin Gausman has a 5.14 ERA in 28 innings, but he also has 29 strikeouts and a 3-1 record. Clay Holmes, coming from the New York Mets, has a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings and has a WHIP of 0.957. Reliever Ryan Zeferjahn has struggled a bit in his 9? innings but provides an excellent leverage option.

Matthew Boyd has been solid in the rotation since his return in late June, David Peterson has a 3.90 ERA in his 11 appearances (10 starts) this year and Jacob Webb has struggled in recent outings but became a quality closer for a chunk of the summer.

How have the Chicago Cubs done lately?

They’ve lost three of their last four series and needed two walk-off wins against the Chicago White Sox to keep that from being a series loss, too. Dropping two of three to the Reds over the weekend was a tough blow, but this is still a team with a winning record in August.

The bullpen has looked vulnerable, and the team is operating without defensive wizard Dansby Swanson at shortstop. He suffered an oblique injury but should be back for the postseason. For now, Nico Hoerner has moved to shortstop.

What’s going on with Nico Hoerner this year?

Himself a defensive star, the second baseman is coming off an elite offensive season, too, but it’s been a rough season at the plate since he signed his six-year, $141 million deal before the season.

Hoerner has a .674 OPS this season after a .739 mark last year, but he’s already matched last season’s homer total (seven) and has 22 steals after getting 29 last year. He’s also matched last year’s RBI total with 61.

Are the Chicago Cubs really the best defensive team in baseball?

The Fielding Bible says yes, according to defensive runs saved, and it’s not remotely close. The Brewers, by the way, are fourth in baseball.

Statcast also regards the Cubs as the best team, with a massive gap between them and second place. It also doesn’t love the Brewers nearly as much in its outs-above-average metric, ranking them 13th.

So, to answer the question: Yes.

Who are the Cubs’ best players, along with PCA?Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) high fives Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell (11) right, after his two-run home run during the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Monday, July 20, 2026.

Outfielder Seiya Suzuki is having an excellent year, with a 4.6 bWAR and an .862 OPS. Alex Bregman, the offseason free-agent signing, was seen as a disappointment through the first half of the season, but he’s up to a 4.1 WAR with a .766 OPS (including 20 homers).

Ian Happ (23 homers), Suzuki (23), Bregman (20), Swanson (18), Michael Busch (17) and Michael Conforto (12) all have double-digit homers, along with PCA’s 38. Basically, anyone in the lineup is a threat to go deep.

It’s a very similar group to the team the Brewers saw in last year’s NLDS, except with more starting pitching options.

The Cubs just put Hoby Milner on waivers

Hoby Milner, the former Brewers reliever, has been battling back from appendicitis and appears healthy, but the Cubs are trying to figure out a way to get him back to the active roster. The 35-year-old was reportedly put on waivers but not designated for assignment as originally reported, meaning he could rejoin the team when rosters expand Sept. 1. The lefty has a 3.53 ERA this year.

He’s not the only Brewers connection in the bullpen. Aaron Civale, who asked for a trade last year when he was sent to the bullpen and the deal netted Milwaukee a first baseman in Andrew Vaughn, has a 1.54 ERA in 11 games out of the bullpen for the Cubs this year. Civale pitched against the Brewers in last year’s NLDS.

Former Brewers farmhand Antoine Kelly made his Major League debut with the Cubs earlier this year and remains on the 40-man roster but is back in the minors after his one game. Colin Rea has been a steady member of the Cubs’ rotation, with 27 appearances (19 starts), though he has a 4.48 ERA.

The Cubs have faced a ton of injuries in the pitching staff

Offseason acquisition Edward Cabrera has been ineffective and is on the injured list with a blister issue. Ben Brown, who had a 1.85 ERA in 20 games this year, suffered a setback during his rehab from a neck injury and may not be back this year.

Relievers Phil Maton, Gavin Hollowell and Hunter Harvey are all out long-term. The team is also missing 2025 standout rookie Cade Horton, lost for more than a year after internal brace surgery. Justin Steele, who also missed most of 2025, remains out, though he may be nearing a return before the season is over.

All four games at Wrigley Field are really at night?

Yes! Even the Thursday game is a night game airing on Fox, one of several TV quirks. The Monday game is on Fox Sports One and the Tuesday game is on TBS, though those two will also air in their usual spot on Brewers.TV.

The Brewers played all three games of a May series at Wrigley under the lights, but this is the first time they’ve played every game of a four-game series at Wrigley at night.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers can all but shut the door on Cubs in four-game Wrigley series

Reporting by JR Radcliffe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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