Week 1 is here, which means welcome to my weekly DST rankings! I’ve been running a version of this column for six years now, and it has won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Series twice, so I hope I can continue providing you with informative and helpful content. I utilize my research/articles for my own weekly DST streams and waiver adds, so we’re truly in this together. I promise to continue pushing myself to ensure the information below remains as useful as possible.
We’ve spent months during this NFL offseason evaluating and analyzing, but truth be told, we were mostly guessing. We assumed which teams would be good and what players would have which roles on their teams, but now we get to see these teams in action. When it comes to defenses, that means we get to finally see which teams have schemes that could generate consistent pressure and which players put in the work over the offseason to take their game to another level. We also get to see which offenses we truly want to attack when choosing our defenses.
But for this week. We’re still guessing and using a lot of last season’s data, which means we’re probably not going to be taking as many risks or making as many bold calls as we will once the season gets going.
As a reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly connected to top 10 fantasy defenses were first downs allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.
The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.
I’ll obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
I’m not as high on the Jaguars from a season-long standpoint as you’d expect, because they finished with a top-five defense last year. However, they had a shaky 3rd-down defense, a poor pressure rate, and not many sacks, and were heavily reliant on turnovers, which are not sticky year-over-year. Yet, Travis Hunter should be more impactful on defense, and their entire starting defense is returning players, but the reason they are here is that they get the Browns in Week 1 with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The Browns have the lowest implied team total on the slate in Week 1 at 16.5 points, and they have the worst offensive line in football, according to the consensus rankings. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston look solid, but it usually takes rookie WRs a few weeks to really adjust and adapt to the NFL game, so I don’t think they’ll come out as true difference makers, especially with such bad QB play around them. I think the Browns may be one of the weaker offenses in all of football, so I’m happy to pick on them early.
The Chargers were the 14th-ranked defense last year, but I’m happy to go to bat with them here in Week 1. They drafted Akheem Mesidor in round one of this year’s draft and added nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to help in the middle of their defensive line. The Chargers also played without Khalil Mack for a quarter of the season last year and had linebacker Junior Colson miss the entire season. They’re going to face a Cardinals team in Week 1 that might be without rookie RB Jerimiyah Love or be playing with a version of Love that is not 100%. Pair that with the fact that the Cardinals also have an offensive line that I’d like to attack and a below-average QB room, and I think this is going to be a good week for the Chargers defense.
The Eagles are another talented overall defense that I’m happy to target early. They finished 7th last season, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game, and start the season against a Commanders offense that will be without stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Without Tunsil, the consensus offensive line rankings now have the Commanders as the 26th-ranked offensive line in football, and PFF even ranked them as the worst in the league. The team signed Stefon Diggs this offseason, and people got excited, but it seems they are only playing him in the slot, which is a role that limited him to about 50% of the snaps last year in New England. This isn’t a Commanders offense that really scares me.
Even during normal weeks I’d prefer to avoid international games, but that’s certainly the case when it’s Week 1. These international games always seem to be tough to pin down because it’s impossible to know how each player will adapt to the time difference and the massive changes to routine (remember that many of these players have not traveled overseas in any capacity before). Yet, I do think this Rams defense is going to be good, shocker. Last year, the Rams were a solid defense when it came to pressure rate and 9th in points per game allowed. They added Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson from the Chiefs defense, swung that massive trade with the Browns to get Myles Garrett, and then also had Aaron Donald come out of retirement. This is going to be a very good defense. I’m not entirely sure how quickly the pieces will all gel, and this 49ers offense should still be pretty good, but I imagine you’ll feel comfortable with the Rams most weeks.
I’m ranking the Steelers this high primarily because I think this Falcons offense is going to be bad early on. Tua Tagovailoa did not look good last season and looks worse this preseason. I know there are other talented players on their offense, and their offensive line is good, but I just don’t trust Tua to make any plays. This Steelers defense should be in his face often. They revamped their defense in the offseason with Patrick Graham as their defensive coordinator and bringing in Jamel Dean, Rayshawn Jenkins, and Jaquan Brisker in free agency to overhaul their secondary, and also signed Sebastien Joseph-Day to add depth to their defensive line. But this is a matchup play for me, and I feel pretty good about it.
The Seahawks were the number one defense in fantasy last year, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game, and they have been a strong unit for a few years now. They’ll start the year against a good Patriots team, but one that I think over-performed last year. As of now, Vegas has the Patriots with an implied team total of 20.5 points in this game, which is the 7th-lowest point total on the entire Week 1 slate. The Patriots have an above-average offensive line, but I don’t love their receiving options behind A.J. Brown. I don’t think this is an offense worth fading the Seahawks defense for.
Last season, the Vikings last season were top three in the NFL in pressure rate, but were solid everywhere, ranking top five in third-down defense and top 10 in points per game allowed. They drafted Caleb Banks in round one and added four other draft picks to their defensive rotations. They did lose big names like Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, and Jonathan Greenard, but those were not irreplaceable pieces. The Packers will also not have Josh Jacobs, who is on the Commissioner’s Exempt list. I know everybody is going gaga over Marshawn Lloyd, but we’ve never actually seen him produce at the NFL level. We also don’t know if Tucker Kraft is actually 100% yet (he’s probably not), and the Packers lost valuable depth wide receiver pieces in Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. It may take a bit before this offense gets humming.
The Broncos have a perennially strong defense. They did lose Jim Leonhard to the Bills, but he was a defensive assistant, and they should be able to replace him. Last year the Broncos had the best pressure rate in the league (30.5%), were second in third-down conversion rate, and third in points per game allowed. Those are categories my research has found translate best to fantasy production for defenses. Yes, the Chiefs will probably be a much better offense in 2026, but Patrick Mahomes is still recovering from major knee surgery, and offensive tackle Josh Simmons is questionable to play for this game. I just think the Broncos are a strong defense and you’re liable ot get 6+ points out of them against basically any team.
The Lions have flashed fantasy upside in the past as a defense but have always seemed snake-bitten by injuries. That has continued this season since they will be without starting safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Those are pretty big injuries and ones that make me think about moving the Lions down these rankings. However, they did also add talent this offseason with DJ Wonnum, Devin White, Chuck Clark, and second-round pick Derrick Moore. In addition to that, they get the Saints in Week 1, without Jordyn Tyson and with Tyler Shough under center, who I still think makes a bunch of turnover-worthy plays. The Saints have the 8th-lowest implied team total in Week 1 at 20.75 points, which firmly puts the Lions in play.
The Texans are another supremely talented defense in a poor matchup. Last year, they were the best defense in terms of giving up first downs, were 2nd in the league in points per game, and also top ten in third-down conversion rate and sacks. They added Reed Blankenship and Jadeveon Clowney, among a total of eight free agents and draft picks to beef up their defensive rotations. I’d have them higher if they weren’t playing a Bills offense that has been one of the best in the league for a few years now. Historically, the Texans have also had the Bills’ number in Houston, so I think they’re in play as a top 10 defense, but I’m not expecting a huge output.
The Bills are also in play on the other side. They were another team that had a major overhaul on defense, hiring Jim Leonhard to revamp their system, which led to many changes in depth pieces, like adding Bradley Chubb, Dee Alford, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency and using six of eight early picks on defense. There are some questions about how quickly all those pieces will gel, but in the preseason, this system looks fast and aggressive. This Texans offense also has tons of questions. C.J. Stroud has looked pretty bad for two seasons, the offensive line ranks 30th in consensus rankings, and the Texans have no real proven second receiving option behind Nico Collins. We also don’t know if David Montgomery can actually thrive in a three-down role because he hasn’t had one in years. I don’t think this is some kind of smash spot, but the Texans have the 11th-lowest implied team total at 21.5 points in Week 1, so this could be a bit of an uglier offensive game than people are expecting.
The Ravens will also get a Colts team in Week 1 be starting Daniel Jones just eight months removed from tearing his Achilles. It’s great that Jones is on the field, but I don’t really trust the health of either him or Alec Pierce, who basically just missed the entire preseason after ankle surgery. The Ravens had a strong offseason, hiring Anthony Weaver, their former linebacker’s coach, to be their defensive coordinator, hiring defensive whiz Jesse Minter as their head coach, and making two big adds with Trey Hendrickson and Calais Campbell. John Jenkins and second-round pick Zion Young should also help the defense with some added depth to their rotations, and I think they’ll be a solid overall unit this season.
The Bears defense had a lot of turnover this offseason, signing Coby Bryant (who’s now hurt), Neville Gallimore, Xavier Woods and Devin Bush, and drafting Dillon Thieneman in round one. They also lost Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, and Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, so it’s hard to trust this unit right now, but they’re going up against a Panthers offense that has a quarterback I don’t trust in Bryce Young and an offensive line that ranks 17th in consensus rankings, but is as low as 29th on some sites and 26th on both FTN and PFF. The Panthers also have no real dynamic receiver threat apart from Tet McMillan, so I think the Bears could be in play here, especially since I think their offense is going to put up plenty of points and have the Panthers in catch-up mode.
Consensus has the Titans as the 8th-ranked defense, but I can’t get there. I might be crazy because the Jets have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate, but I don’t think they’re that bad of an offense. Breece Hall is going to be healthy enough to play in Week 1. Garrett Wilson is a very good wide receiver. Adonai Mitchell looked good with the Jets last year and has looked good this preseason, and I don’t think Geno Smith is as bad as he looked with the Raiders. This Jets offensive line has young bookend tackles I think will take a step forward this year, and so I don’t think this is a smash spot for a Titans defense that may also be below-average. Additionally, I think this Titans offense is bad and is going to put their defense in some bad situations that will lead to short-field scores for the Jets. There’s just no way that I can go into Week 1 with the Titans as my starting defense.
Much of the Chiefs’ defensive success in the past has been that their offense forces opponents to play catch-up, which leads to lots of pass attempts, which has led to sacks and turnovers. Can the Chiefs’ offense continue to be that kind of juggernaut? They weren’t last year, even when Patrick Mahomes was healthy. The Chiefs did sign Alohi Gilman in free agency and brought back L’Jarius Sneed. They drafted Mansoor Delane and R. Mason Thomas in the first two rounds of the draft, but they also traded away Trent McDuffie, which will be a tough loss to replace. Even if we think the Week 1 matchup against the Broncos is tough, Vegas gives Denver the 6th-lowest implied team total on the board at 19.75 points. Denver has an elite offensive line, so I don’t expect the Chiefs to get many sacks, but if they can keep this low-scoring, then maybe they put up 6-7 fantasy points, and you move on.
The Jets are another team with a major overhaul. They hired Brian Duker, the former Dolphins secondary coach, to be their defensive coordinator and then added Demario Davis, David Onyemata, T’Vondre Sweat, Joseph Ossai, Kingsley Enagbare, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Dane Belton while drafting David Bailey in the first round. That’s a massive infusion of personnel. How will it work out, and how quickly will it come together? It’s too early for me to fully trust the Jets, but I also think this Titans offense is pretty bad with a bottom-tier offensive line and erratic Cam Ward at quarterback.
The Packers are one of the tougher rankings because they no longer have Rashan Gary and will be without Micah Parsons for much of the season. They did add Javon Hargrave and Benjamin St-Juste in free agency, traded for Zaire Franklin, used their first three picks on defensive players, and hired Jonathan Gannon, who did not work out as the Cardinals’ head coach but was a great defensive coordinator for the Eagles before that. All of that should help them, but I generally have no idea if this defense will be any good or not. Their Week 1 matchup also doesn’t seem great against the Vikings, but I still have some questions about how efficient and effective Kyler Murray can be.
I know people want to play both the Raiders and Dolphins because each offense is not particularly good; however, I’m not sure either defense is good, so I’d try to avoid both this weekend. If I had to choose, I’d lean with the Raiders defense because the Dolphins have the fourth-lowest implied team total on the slate at 18.5 points. The Raiders promoted Rob Leonard from DL/run game coordinator to defensive coordinator and then added Kwity Paye, Taron Johnson, Nakobe Dean, and Quay Walker in free agency. They kept Maxx Crosby, so maybe I’m too low on them. If Ashton Jeanty plays, and I have more faith in the Raiders offense to move the ball and not give the Dolphins short fields, then maybe I’ll actually move them up to the bottom of tier 3.
The Cowboys made some key personnel changes this offseason, adding Rashan Gary, Cobie Durant, Dee Winters and Jalen Thompson in free agency and drafting Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the first round. Those are big additions, but they were the 31st-ranked defense last year, so they needed to make a lot of big additions. I know people are down on the Giants, but do you know how many quarters Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, and Jaxson Dart have played together? One. Dart didn’t start until Week 4 against the Chargers last season, and Nabers was carted off the field in the second quarter with a knee injury. Now, I know Nabers and Skattebo are both coming off major injuries, but the Giants also added Isaiah Likely, Malachi Fields, Darnell Mooney, and shifted around their offensive line. Maybe the Cowboys defense is better. Maybe the Giants are actually bad. I’m just not taking that gamble in Week 1.
The Falcons are another confusing ranking because James Pearce Jr. is going to be suspended for eight games, and that’s a major loss. They added Christian Harris, Maason Smith, Gervon Dexter, and Za’Darius Smith in the offseason, among other depth signings, and used three draft picks on defense as well. That’s a lot of turnover here and a lot of unknowns, but I do generally like those moves. I also don’t LOVE the Pittsburgh offense, but they have a good offensive line, and I think Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be a solid second fiddle to DK Metcalf. I also think Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren are a solid backfield duo, so I’m not going to attack the Steelers quite yet.
The Browns lost Myles Garrett this offseason, and it’s pretty hard to recover from that. However, Jared Verse is really talented, and the team also added Quincy Williams and Derek Barnett in free agency and drafted Emmanuel McNeil-Warren in the second round. I think this will be a solid defense overall, but replacing Jim Schwartz is no easy task, and this Week 1 matchup is not a good one.
The Patriots benefited from an easy schedule last year, but they also returned to form defensively, especially when Milton Williams was on the field. This offseason, Zak Kuhr was promoted from the interim defensive coordinator, and the team also added Dre’Mont Jones and Kevin Byard and drafted Gabe Jacas in the second round. The Seahawks are just not an offense I want to target.
During the regular season, I’m not going to give you much information on the Tier Five defenses. In general, I just don’t want to play them, but you can read my season-long rankings to see my thoughts on each of these units from a more global perspective.