Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Parker Washington finished last season with a flurry of insane production; if he picks up right where he left off, he’ll crush this season. Last year, in Weeks 16-19, Washington asserted himself as the Jags’ clear WR1. During that stretch, he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game while soaking up six red zone targets and 13 deep targets. In those four games, he had a 28.9% target share, 113.5 receiving yards per game, 3.78 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Those are all absolutely elite metrics no matter how you slice it. I have no concern about Parker Washington‘s ability to get open this week against Cleveland’s slot corner, Myles Harden (2025: 71.9% catch rate and 119.3 passer rating). Last year, among 34 qualifying slot corners, Harden allowed the fifth-highest passer rating, the ninth-most fantasy points per target, and the ninth-highest rate of a step of separation.
Last year, Brenton Strange had a breakout season as the TE17 in fantasy points per game, setting career highs in targets (only in 12 games), receiving yards, yards per reception, and fantasy points per game. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share, 14th in receiving yards per game, ninth in yards per route run, 23rd in first-read share, and 11th in first downs per route run. Trevor Lawrence could lean on Strange this week with his perimeter wide receivers staring down tough matchups. Last year, Cleveland allowed the 13th-most yards per target to tight ends while ranking 18th in fantasy points per opportunity given up.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last year, Trevor Lawrence finally had the breakout season that everyone had been waiting for as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. It was the first season in which he had eclipsed 18 fantasy points per game. Yes, part of this magical season included nine rushing touchdowns, which is probably not a sustainable mark to expect him to repeat in 2026, but he was fifth in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks, so maybe there is some carryover in his rushing touchdown production to this season. Lawrence really caught fire to close last season (Weeks 12-18) as the QB1 in fantasy points per game. During that seven-game stretch, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence was excellent as a passer, ranking third in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, third in hero throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and second in passing touchdowns. The Browns lost Myles Garrett during the offseason, but they added Jared Verse. I know it’s a downgrade, but not by a ton. Cleveland’s pass defense was stout to close last season and could be again in 2026. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, they allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passing success rate, and the third-lowest EPA per dropback. Lawrence could rise above a tough on-paper matchup for Week 1, but it’s ok if you have some worries.
The last time that we saw Deshaun Watson in a regular season game, he was horrible. In 2024, in his seven games played, he finished higher than QB16 in weekly scoring only once. In that season, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 40th in yards per attempt, 38th in success rate per dropback, 33rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 40th in fantasy points per dropback. It was horrible. This preseason it wasn’t any better for Watson. Among 70 qualifying passers, he was 37th in yards per attempt, 58th in aDOT, and had the ninth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. I expect Watson to get pummeled this week against a pass defense that last year, in Weeks 12-18, allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest EPA per dropback.
Quinshon Judkins had off-the-field and contract issues last year, entering his rookie season, which caused him to miss training camp and not start the season until Week 2. Once he was on the field, he was Cleveland’s workhorse back until suffering an ankle and fibula fracture in Week 16. In Weeks 2-15, he was the RB26 in fantasy points per game (RB22 in expected fantasy points per game), averaging 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards. I wasn’t high on Judkins as a prospect, as his per-touch efficiency in college wasn’t amazing. He didn’t debunk that trend in his rookie season, either. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 40th in explosive run rate, 33rd in missed tackle rate, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. In his defense, Judkins’ offensive line didn’t do him any favors last season. Among those 49 backs, Judkins had the fifth-highest mark of yards after first contact, with 62.2% of his rushing yards coming after first contact, and he had the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, with only Cam Skattebo, Ashton Jeanty, and Zach Charbonnet seeing less runway with the ball in their hands. With a rebuilt offensive line to run behind in 2026, hopefully Judkins has more room to run. That will be put to the test in Week 1 against a run defense that last year, in Weeks 12-18, allowed the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest EPA per rush.
Bhayshul Tuten will compete with Chris Rodriguez to be the lead back for the Jaguars in 2026. I want to bet on Tuten this year and his talent. Last year, Tuten was unfortunately robbed of the stretch run of his rookie season as he was sidelined by a finger injury. Before the injury, he was starting to make some noise. This could be the big breakout season for Tuten, who, on a per-touch basis, flashed the immense talent that I really liked when he was in college. Last season, among 55 qualifying backs, he ranked fifth in rushing success rate, 11th in missed tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez will remain a worry for Tuten at the goal line and for his overall touch count until we see his role fleshed out this season. That uncertainty makes it tough to count on Tuten as an RB2 in Week 1. He could ultimately produce like one this week, but it’s tough to project that at the moment. The Browns should field a solid run defense again this season. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Cleveland allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest rushing success rate, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Chris Rodriguez reunited with Liam Coen this offseason as he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rodriguez and Coen spent time together during Coen’s one-year tenure as Kentucky’s offensive coordinator during the 2021 collegiate season. In that season, Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards with 6.1 yards per carry and 12 total touchdowns. Rodriguez will look to build upon his brief run as Washington’s starter last season. In Weeks 10-18, he drew six starts while averaging 12.7 touches and 57.7 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Rodriguez could be an early down and short yardage option for the Jags this year, as he won’t be contributing much in the passing game. Last season, he had only four targets and 30 receiving yards with Washington. He was quite good as a rusher, though, ranking 12th in missed tackle rate and second in yards after contact per attempt. It’s difficult to consider Rodriguez as anything more than a touchdown-dependent flex until we see how the workload is divided up for the Jags early this season. The Browns should field a solid run defense again this season. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Cleveland allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest rushing success rate, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
KC Concepcion has the talent to be Cleveland’s clear WR1 this season. We’ll see if that’s how it shakes out this season. Concepcion is a receiver who can threaten a defense at all three levels while also making things happen after the catch with the ball in his hands. In two of his last three collegiate seasons, he ranked top 35 in FBS in YAC per reception (26th, 33rd, per PFF). In 2023, Concepcion was 17th in missed tackles forced among FBS wide receivers. Concepcion won’t have easy sledding in his first NFL game, though. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per target and the third-fewest yards per target to slot receivers.
Denzel Boston was a baller in college. In his final season, he had the fifth-best contested catch rate (min ten contested targets) among FBS wide receivers while also posting 2.44 yards per route run. He finished college with a 79th percentile college dominator and an 86th percentile collegiate target share. The concern about Deshaun Watson‘s ability to feed him catchable targets is real. I’m not trotting Boston out in lineups in Week 1 because of that concern and the horrible matchup he’s staring at. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the eight-fewest fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy is coming off a massively disappointing season. I don’t see him erasing the stink of 2025 in Week 1. If you drafted him, he’s an automatic sit candidate. I have no faith in Deshaun Watson‘s ability to get him catchable targets, nor Jeudy’s ability to get open. Last year, Jeudy was the WR61 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 1.09 yards per route run, 0.056 first downs per route run, and a 25.3% first-read share. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the eight-fewest fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Brian Thomas Jr. was one of the biggest busts of the 2025 season. He dealt with a high ankle sprain and a shoulder issue and never looked like the player we all loved during his rookie season. Once Thomas Jr. was “healthy” and Jakobi Meyers was on the roster, Thomas was relegated to a field-stretching role. In Weeks 13-18, he had only two top-24 outings in weekly scoring (WR15, WR23) with a 14.9% target share (18.1 aDOT), 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.65 yards per route run, three red zone targets, and a 20.6% first-read share. If Thomas Jr. is going to have a bounce-back campaign, I don’t think it starts in Week 1. Last year, when Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together as full-time players, the Cleveland pass defense was a shutdown unit against perimeter wide receivers. In their eight games together, the Browns’ pass defense allowed only 1.43 fantasy points per target and 7.24 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. Over the entire season, those would have been the third-lowest marks in each category in the NFL. In that sample, Cleveland was also elite at defending against deep passing, giving up only a 31% completion rate and a 73.1 passer rating. Over the entire season, those would have ranked as sixth-best and seventh-best against deep passing.
Last year, in Weeks 13-18, with Brian Thomas Jr. back in the lineup, Parker Washington doing his thing, and Trevor Lawrence playing with his hair on fire, Jakobi Meyers was the WR28 in fantasy points per game. During that six-game stretch, he was seeing a 22.6% target share and a 26.7% first-read share, producing 54.7 receiving yards per game, 1.62 yards per route run, and 0.094 first downs per route run. Meyers will be a solid WR3/flex at times this season, but that won’t include Week 1. Last year, when Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together as full-time players, the Cleveland pass defense was a shutdown unit against perimeter wide receivers. In their eight games together, the Browns’ pass defense allowed only 1.43 fantasy points per target and 7.24 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. Over the entire season, those would have been the third-lowest marks in each category in the NFL. Sit Meyers this week.
Harold Fannin Jr. had a banner rookie season as the TE8 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Fannin was fifth in target share (19.4%), 12th in receiving yards per game (45.7), 12th in yards per route run (1.81), fourth in first-read share (22.3%), and 25th in first downs per route run. I expect Fannin Jr.’s numbers to dip some with more target competition around him this season. I don’t expect him to begin 2026 with a bang in Week 1, either. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the sixth-fewest yards per target and the eight-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
I’m not buying the offseason narratives that the Texans backfield will be a 50/50 split. David Montgomery will likely operate as the team’s workhorse. Last year, he was phased out of the Lions’ offensive plans as the season moved along, which led to his RB32 finish in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 12-18, he was the RB43 in fantasy points per game with a 32.1% snap rate, 8.2 touches per game, and only 42.8 total yards per game. Montgomery still has the juice to produce as a workhorse this season. Last season, he ranked 30th in missed tackle rate, but he was 12th in yards after contact per attempt. His receiving chops are also still alive and well, as he was also 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Last season, Montgomery bested Marks in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run. Legit, every per-touch metric that I care about. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career. Montgomery should have a successful Week 1 against a run defense that last season (in Weeks 12-18) allowed the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
D.J. Moore’s stock took a tumble last year as Moore sank to WR41 in fantasy points per game. Moore had a 14.3% target share with 1.33 yards per route run, a 17.5% first-read share, and 0.063 first downs per route run. None of these numbers offer hope for 2026, but don’t tune out just yet. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Moore was 47th and 49th in separation score and route win rate. The numbers get even better when we look at Moore as a perimeter receiver, which he’ll be asked to do more than the 65% of snaps that he played there last year. As an outside receiver last year, among the same sample of receivers, he was 36th in separation and 29th in route win rate. Moore has a tough matchup out of the gate against the Houston Texans. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, against perimeter wide receivers, they allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to receiving yards and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity. Moore should get peppered with volume, which should help him in this difficult matchup, but I’m not projecting a monster performance from him in Week 1.
Could this be the year? Could this be it? The season that Dalton Kincaid FINALLY is a full-time player in the Buffalo offense? I hope so, but we still have to see if that’s what actually happens in 2026. If Dalton Kincaid could get a near full-time route share, he would be a league winner and season-defining player at the tight end position. Last year, Kincaid was a monster on a per-route basis, leading to a TE13 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Kincaid ranked FIRST in target per route run rate, yards per route run, separation score, route win rate, first downs per route run, and fantasy points per route run. The problem is that, among the same sample of 54 tight ends, he was 39th in route share (44.2%) behind Michael Mayer. Josh Allen could lean on Kincaid heavily in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Houston allowed the seventh-most receiving fantasy points per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
C.J. Stroud had another struggle bus season last year as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. He had only four weeks in which he cracked the top 12 in weekly scoring among quarterbacks. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 18th in passing yards per game, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and 28th in hero throw rate. Houston tried to hide him, as he had only five games last year with 35 or more passing attempts. I expect the Texans to lean on their defense and run game this week to hopefully take down the Bills. Stroud is a middling QB2. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Buffalo allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest passing success rate.
At this point in his career, we know who Khalil Shakir is. A low-ceiling WR3/4 or flex play on a weekly basis in PPR formats. Over the last two seasons, he has finished as the WR39 and WR33 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Shakir was 36th in target share, 55th in receiving yards per game, 41st in yards per route run, 38th in first-read share, and 80th in first downs per route run. This isn’t the week to consider flexing Shakir. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Houston allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to receiving yards and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.
Kayshon Boutte should serve as Houston’s field stretcher and the wide receiver who is playing in two-wide sets with Nico Collins. Last year, Boutte was the WR47 in fantasy points per game, with five games in weekly fantasy scoring as a top-24 option. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 48th in separation score and 44th in route win rate. Among that same sample of receivers, he ranked fourth in aDOT (17.5) while drawing a 10.9% target share with 39.4 receiving yards per game, 1.56 yards per route run, a 14% first-read share, and 0.076 first downs per route run. This isn’t the week to consider flexing Boutte. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Buffalo allowed the tenth-lowest completion rate and the 11th-lowest passer rating to deep passing.
Last year, Dalton Schultz was the TE14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 13th in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, Schultz was 11th in target share and receiving yards per game, 20th in yards per route run, 16th in first-read share, and 20th in first downs per route run. Sit Dalton Schultz this week. Buffalo was an elite defense again last year versus tight ends. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Buffalo allowed the second-fewest receiving fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest overall fantasy points per game to tight ends.
NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
I can’t wait to see Malik Willis in his first start for the Dolphins. I know the starting resume for Willis is limited. I get it. What we have seen in limited doses over the last two years has been outstanding, though. Over the last two seasons, Willis has posted a 5.6% big-time throw rate (118 dropbacks, per PFF), 10.9 yards per attempt, and averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game. Last year, among all quarterbacks with at least 110 dropbacks, that big-time throw rate would have ranked eighth-best behind Caleb Williams, and his yards per attempt mark would have led the NFL. That rushing yardage mark per game over the last three years would have ranked first, fourth, and third among quarterbacks. Willis is facing a remade Raiders’ defense that added Quay Walker, Kwity Paye, Nakobe Dean, and Taron Johnson (just to name a few). Last year, the Raiders allowed the tenth-highest passer rating, the ninth-highest passing success rate, and the tenth-highest EPA per dropback. I don’t know if the Raiders’ pass defense will be that much of a pushover in 2026, but I also don’t know if they hit the ground running immediately out of the gate. Willis’ rushing ability gives him an incredibly high ceiling and floor for Week 1.
Ashton Jeanty is dealing with a sprained ankle. Right now, I’m projecting him to play in Week 1, but it’s a situation we’ll have to monitor this week. Even if Jeanty is active, he could see a reduction in his snaps with Mike Washington Jr. proving in the preseason to be a capable running mate for Jeanty this season. Ashton Jeanty was seen as a disappointment for fantasy managers exiting his rookie season. It wasn’t a failure, but you can make the argument that, because of his talent and the hype, it didn’t live up to lofty expectations. Jeanty was the RB15 in fantasy points per game, finishing with 321 touches and 1,321 total yards. He ranked fifth in snap share, first in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 15th in red zone touches. Among 49 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranked 16th in missed tackle rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. The ecosystem surrounding Jeanty stunk. The Raiders were 31st in red zone scoring attempts per game and 30th in yards per play. Among those 49 qualifying backs previously, Jeanty had the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.28), and 65% of his rushing yards came after first contact. With Klint Kubiak in town and (hopefully) improved blocking up front, Jeanty could have a nice Week 1. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the most yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest missed tackle rate. Even with the best rose colored glasses, this still has to be viewed as an above-average matchup for the Raiders’ ground game.
Mike Washington Jr. could offer nice flex value in Week 1. Ashton Jeanty isn’t 100%, and Washington Jr. could see double-digit touches with the ability to break off a long run for a score at any time. He has looked amazing this preseason with an every-down skillset. Washington Jr. tested like an alien during the pre-draft process, leading to his fourth-round draft capital. During his final collegiate season, Washington Jr. broke out, ranking 33rd in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in breakaway rate (per PFF). Last year, the Dolphins allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the most yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest missed tackle rate. Even with the best rose colored glasses, this still has to be viewed as an above-average matchup for the Raiders’ ground game.
Greg Dulcich could challenge for the lead in targets for Miami in Week 1. Ok, that might be a tad aggressive, but this receiving depth chart is questionable at best despite my hope for it. Last year, Dulcich was absolutely awesome when on the field. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he was fifth in target-per-route-run rate (24%), second in yards per route run (2.64) and yards after the catch per reception (7.69), fifth in first downs per route run (0.110), and sixth in fantasy points per route run. Dulcich could flirt with TE1 production in Week 1 against a secondary that was 15th in fantasy points per opportunity allowed last year against tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last year, Kirk Cousins was a replacement-level quarterback. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 32nd in yards per attempt, 27th in passing success rate, 18th in catchable target rate, and 30th in EPA per dropback. He finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring only twice last season, and it has to be mentioned that it was against the Buccaneers and the Cardinals, so we can take it with a grain of salt. Cousins’ domination of the Bucs over the last few years has been comical, and the Cards were a dumpster fire last year. I’m not saying that the Dolphins’ pass defense will be good this season, but I’m not expecting more than middling QB2 production for Cousins in Week 1. In the offseason, the Dolphins only added Josh Uche, Jacob Rodriguez, and Chris Johnson to the starting mix, which is a good start, but this defensive roster is still lacking talent. Last year, Miami allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the highest passing success rate, and the fifth-most EPA per dropback.
Caleb Douglas could operate as Miami’s WR1 in Week 1. Douglas has a standout training camp, filling the timeline weekly with highlight-reel plays. We saw him play only briefly in the preseason, earning two targets on his nine routes while playing on the perimeter on 71.4% of his snaps (per PFF). In his final two seasons in college, he never finished higher than 116th in yards per route run or receiving grade. Douglas could walk away from Week 1 as a solid flex play, but it’s tough to depend on him for that production out of the gate. Last year, Las Vegas allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers. The outside tandem of Eric Stokes (2025: 55.8% completion rate and 89.1 passer rating) and Darien Porter (2025: 63.2% catch rate and 90.5 passer rating) has some promise, though, so I don’t want to sleep on them being quite underrated. In most formats, I’m sitting Douglas in Week 1, but if you’re stuck starting him in a DEEP league or dynasty format he could walk away with a nice stat line versus the Raiders.
It wouldn’t shock me at all if Jalen Nailor steps up as the clear number two option for the Raiders this season behind Brock Bowers through the air. Nailor isn’t facing stiff competition from Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and company. Yes, last year Nailor had only a 10.3% target share, 1.19 yards per route run, and a 10.8% first-read share. None of those metrics will or should get you excited, but when we dig deeper, his per-route numbers are QUITE INTERESTING. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 33rd in separation and 51st in route win rate. As a perimeter receiver among the same sample, his numbers look even better (141 routes) as he was sixth-best in separation and 13th in route win rate. If you’re struggling in a deep league and have to reach into the Raiders’ passing attack for a Week 1 flex play, Nailor would be it for me. Last year, Miami allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Chris Johnson is a talented rookie, but expecting him to be an immediate difference-maker for the Miami secondary is a lot to ask for a rookie. JuJu Brents and Jason Marshall Jr. flanking him don’t frighten me at all.
Malik Washington steps into a more prominent role in the Miami passing attack this season, but I don’t know if it’ll lead to more production. Last year, Washington had only three outings where he finished as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring. On a per-route basis, he had only a 19% target-per-route run rate and 0.95 yards per route run. Maybe I’ll be wrong about how his 2026 season unfolds, but I’m not willing to bet on him in a flex spot to open the 2026 season.
Last season, Tre Tucker was the WR45 in fantasy points per game, but his standout performance in Week 3 with 145 receiving yards and three scores is carrying a lot of the water for that fantasy finish. If we take that one game out of the mix, Tucker averaged only 7.5 fantasy points per game with a 16.7% target share, 1.06 yards per route run, 34.4 receiving yards per game, and a 21.2% first-read share. Yeah, I’m not interested in running Tucker out there in Week 1 as a flex play when he easily could be out-targeted by Jalen Nailor, Brock Bowers, Jack Bech, and even Ashton Jeanty. Sit Tucker and let’s see what his role is in this new-look Kubiak passing attack for 2026.
Jack Bech was an afterthought in his rookie season. He only earned a 34% route share, drawing a target on 15% of his routes while producing 1.26 yards per route run. Bech might flash some upside and hope in his second season with a new coaching staff at the controls, but I have to see it first. I’m not rolling him out there in any league in Week 1.
NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jordan Love has been a mid-range QB2 over the last two years (QB17, QB16) since his massive breakout in 2023 (QB5), but that hasn’t been because Love sucks. He has been locked in a run-first, run-always offense. Could that still be the case this year? Possibly, but if Green Bay increases its pass rate to even league-average standards (last year, Weeks 1-15, eighth-best in neutral rushing rate), Love could return to QB1 land. The last time that we saw this Green Bay offense without Josh Jacobs was 2023, when Love was dealing. Maybe Matt LaFleur lets Jordan Love cook until we get clarity about Jacobs’ 2026 outlook. Love has proven over the last three seasons that he can sustain above-average passing touchdown rates (5.5%, 5.9%, 5.2%), so I don’t see him backsliding in that category. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Love was eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in hero throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and 13th (tied) in fantasy points per dropback. Love will have his hands full to open the 2026 season with Brian Flores’ defense that in Weeks 12-18 last year allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and ranked 17th in passing success rate. Love could succeed, though, because of his ability to stand tall against the blitz. Over the last two years, Minnesota has led the league each season in blitz rate. Over the last two seasons, among 37 qualifying passers, Love has ranked seventh in yards per attempt and EPA per dropback and 17th in passing success rate against the blitz. I’m betting on Love to have a strong showing in Week 1.
MarShawn Lloyd looks primed to enter Week 1 as the Packers’ workhorse back with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner-exempt list. Just to remind everyone about Lloyd’s talent. During his final two collegiate seasons, he was 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, third and 18th in breakaway rate, and fourth and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). Lloyd can take advantage of a run defense that lost some parts but added Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Jake Golday this offseason. Minnesota could field an improved run defense in 2026, but I have to see it to believe it at this point. Last year, Minny ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt while giving up the sixth-highest rushing success rate and the fourth-lowest stuff rate.
Christian Watson got the bag this offseason and should be considered the clear WR1 for the Green Bay Packers. Watson deserved the payday as he proved that he can handle this role last year. Last season, in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 2.67 yards per route run, a 23.9% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run. His target share and first-read share should go up this season with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and Watson likely getting promoted into a full-time role. Last year, he was also held back by a 68% route share (56th out of 109 qualifying receivers). Jordan Love will be blitzed incessantly this week by Brian Flores, but that should work in Watson’s favor. Last year, when Love was blitzed, Watson was tied for the team lead with a 26% target-per-route run rate while ranking second with a 21% first-read share and posting 2.60 yards per route run. Last year, Minny allowed the second-most yards per target and the third-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers. I expect Watson to shine in Week 1.
After all the hype for Matthew Golden last year, he was only a part-time player for Green Bay in his rookie season. He had only five games in which he surpassed a 60% snap share. When he was on the field, he had a 17% target-per-route-run rate, 1.46 yards per route run, and 0.065 first downs per route run. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 16th in separation and 67th in route win rate. The separation score is notable, but all of his other metrics and the fact that he had a quiet rookie season leave me unimpressed. Jordan Love will be blitzed consistently in Week 1 by Brian Flores. Love could look Golden’s way when under duress after logging an 18% target-per-route run rate and 1.90 yards per route run last year when Love was blitzed. I don’t expect Golden to be the first player that Love looks to, but it could lead to a nice flex-worthy stat line for Golden in Week 1. Last year, Minny allowed the second-most yards per target and the third-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last year, as the quarterback play in Minnesota cratered, Jordan Addison had a career-worst season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Addison had only a 17.4% target share with 43.6 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, a 22.1% first-read share, and 0.065 first downs per route run. None of those numbers jump off the page, but there’s hope for Addison’s flex value for Week 1. Since 2023, Jonathon Gannon has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (57.6%). During the same stretch of time, against two high, Addison has seen his target-per-route-run rate climb from 18% to 20% and his yards per route run increase from 1.50 to 1.85 against two high. If Kyler Murray can prove me wrong in Week 1, Addison could have a nice game. Last year, Green Bay allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
After a slow start last season (in Weeks 7-18), Jauan Jennings was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.5% target share with 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, 0.095 first downs per route run, and a 28.9% first-read share. Those are all decent to strong metrics, but here’s the problem. Jennings is no longer with the 49ers. He signed with the Vikings this offseason and profiles as the third or fourth option in the passing attack that is led by Kyler Murray. I have questions about the Vikings’ passing volume for 2026 and Murray’s performance for Week 1, but Jennings does hold some flex value if Murray surprises. Last year, Green Bay allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per target to slot receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last year, we only got to see Kyler Murray for five games. In the previous six seasons, he had never finished lower than QB12 in fantasy points per game. Last year, in his limited starting sample before being sidelined with a foot injury, Murray had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest aDOT, and the fifth-lowest hero throw rate. None of those numbers will make you feel warm and fuzzy, but maybe Kevin O’Connell can sprinkle some of his Minnesota magic glitter on Murray and his level of quarterbacking improves in 2026. We shall see. I’m not hopeful that Murray begins the 2026 season with a monster game, though. Last year, Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest passing success rate, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback to quarterbacks. Also, looking at Jonathon Gannon’s coverage structure gives me worries for Murray without even stating that Gannon has innate knowledge of what Murray excels at and what he struggles with. Since 2023, Gannon has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (57.6%). Over the last two seasons, among 31 qualifying passers, against two high, Murray has had the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest highly accurate throw rate, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback against two high.
Last year, Aaron Jones missed five games while dealing with hamstring, shoulder, and hip injuries. When he was active, he averaged 13.3 touches and 62.3 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Entering his age-32 season, I don’t think Jones can be expected to play a full 17 games as a workhorse back. He will likely split work with Jordan Mason this season, picking up most of the passing game usage. On early downs, his best days are behind him, as he was 32nd in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackle rate, and 49th in yards after contact per attempt. In the receiving game, he is still above average, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 24th in first downs per route run. Jones is only a middling flex to open the 2026 season against his former team. Last year, Green Bay allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt while ranking 15th in yards before contact per attempt and rushing success rate allowed.
Jordan Mason is a one-trick pony, but that one trick is quite good. He’s a strong early-down option for NFL offenses and should continue to serve in the role this season for Minnesota. Last year, he was the RB42 in fantasy points per game while soaking up 158 rushing attempts and producing 758 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked tenth in explosive run rate, seventh in rushing success rate, ninth in missed tackle rate, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Aaron Jones will continue to be the passing-down partner for Mason for Minny in 2026. Mason is a viable touchdown-dependent flex for Week 1. Last year, Green Bay allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt while ranking 15th in yards before contact per attempt and rushing success rate allowed.
Jayden Reed missed much of the 2025 season with a broken collarbone and surgery to repair a Jones fracture. Last year, we got only a five-game sample for Reed where he played at least 35% of the snaps. In those contests, Reed had a 21% target-per-route-run rate, 1.99 yards per route run, and 0.47 fantasy points per route run. Those are strong numbers, but the worry for Reed persists into 2026 about his inclusion in two wide receiver sets. Last year, Reed played 75% of his snaps from the slot, which is tough when Green Bay ranked 22nd in usage of 11 personnel (55.6%). Sit Reed this week. Last year, Minnesota allowed the seventh-fewest yards per target, the second-fewest receiving yards per game, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per target to slot receivers.
Last year, before losing the rest of his season to a torn ACL (Week 9), Tucker Kraft was the TE1 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-8, among 33 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked seventh in target share (18.3%), first in receiving yards per game (67), second in yards per route run (2.71), seventh in first-read share (21.6%), and second in first downs per route run (0.121). Kraft was also a YAC gawd, leading all tight ends in yards after the catch per reception and missed tackles forced per reception. We’ll see what Kraft’s route share and overall snap share are in Week 1. The matchup isn’t great for Kraft, but I’m not going to count him out in Week 1. Last year, Minnesota allowed the eighth-fewest yards per target and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.
Last season, T.J. Hockenson was the TE25 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Hockenson was 20th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, 44th in yards per route run, 27th in first-read share, and 40th in first downs per route run. I expect Hockenson to have a quiet Week 1 against a pass defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity and the second-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC
