PHILADELPHIA — The score was tied in the sixth inning Thursday when the Houston Astros afforded starter Cristian Javier a rare chance. It was only the second time this season that Javier, a 29-year-old righty with history at Citizens Bank Park, pitched into the sixth inning. The Philadelphia Phillies had been no-hit for four innings, but they at least had looks at Javier. This was the moment to move ahead.
Rookie Justin Crawford pounded the first pitch he saw, a strike, into the ground and legged out an infield single. Rafael Marchán, starting his first big-league game in 50 days, tried to bunt a two-strike pitch over his head and struck himself in the face with his bat for the first out. Kyle Schwarber struck out on seven pitches. Then, Trea Turner struck out on seven pitches.
Of the 18 pitches Javier threw to navigate the sixth inning, 16 were not in the strike zone. Schwarber and Turner did not see a single pitch in the zone.
It was a bad day, a 2-1 loss to the Astros that nudged the Phillies further behind in the National League East. The division is probably out of reach, barring a weekend sweep of the Atlanta Braves, and that’s not the end of the world. The NL East winner will probably have to play a best-of-three Wild Card Series. The priority over the final 15 games is to guarantee the Phillies host their series that round. They are a game ahead of the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card standings.
“It’s a huge advantage in the postseason,” Bryce Harper said. “I know it is, just hearing it from other players coming into here and playing in this environment.”
It hasn’t always felt like that in 2026; the Phillies will probably finish with their fewest regular-season wins at Citizens Bank Park since at least 2019. And during a 3-4 homestand against the Braves and Astros, two teams that will be playing postseason baseball, it looked too familiar. The Phillies scored 28 runs in seven games; 11 came in one win. The Phillies had a .280 on-base percentage in those seven games.
Against better pitching, they could not maintain the positive trends their lineup has displayed since the beginning of August.
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The Phillies chased. On Thursday, it was an extreme example. They saw 65 pitches out of the strike zone and swung at 34 of them. In late July, when the Phillies overhauled their offensive approach, the hitters were motivated when told they were carrying the league’s lowest OBP while seeing the fewest percentage of pitches in the zone.
Something had to change. It did. And when there are hints of it reverting, it raises natural questions about whether the Phillies can sustain that improved approach.
“I think we’ll be OK,” Harper said. “You know, I really do. I don’t see us going backwards in those situations or anything else. I think we’ll be fine. Obviously, we’ve got to do it. And if we don’t, then it’s going to look exactly like it did in the last couple of years. But I think we’ve done a good job over the course of 35, 40 games. So, I think we’re just going to stay within that.”
The Phillies still have the third-highest OBP in the majors since Aug. 1. (Only the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cubs have been better.) But in the two losses this week to the Astros, the Phillies drew only one walk total. That came Thursday when Schwarber, the first batter of the game, worked an eight-pitch walk.
Javier was erratic all day. The Phillies obliged.
“Obviously,” Harper said, “swinging at pitches out of the zone and not really letting him come to us, I think that was probably the biggest thing for us.”
Bryce Harper went 0-for-3 as the Phillies finished a seven-game homestand with a 3-4 record. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Harper cannot speak for everyone in the lineup, but as the caliber of pitching improves in the postseason, how do the Phillies ensure the pitchers come to them?
“Just got to hone in,” Harper said. “I can speak for myself. The last seven games haven’t been great, obviously.”
Two faces of Phillies offense
Statvs. PLAYOFF TEAMSvs. NON PLAYOFF
OPS
.651 (29th)
.738 (16th)
K%
24.8% (24th)
21% (13th)
BB%
7% (28th)
9% (17th)
CHASE %
34.2% (28th)
32.5% (26th)
OPS RISP
.679 (21st)
.844 (1st)
Predictably, the Phillies have fared better against pitchers on teams that would currently miss the postseason. That can be said for most lineups. But the Phillies rank toward the bottom of the majors in important categories when facing would-be postseason clubs. It’s one thing to be worse against better teams, but being near the bottom when compared to the rest of the league is eye-opening.
There are caveats. The numbers are skewed because the Phillies, through Thursday, have taken the second-fewest plate appearances against teams in a postseason position. They have nine games remaining — three apiece versus the Braves, Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays — to better them. Plus, they had a stretch of 13 consecutive games in April against the Braves and Cubs when everything went haywire. It’s hard to view those results as relevant to the postseason. Those April games still count, but it’s important context.
And this is, too: It doesn’t always take a great offense to win in October. The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Phillies in a four-game Division Series last year while tallying a .557 OPS. They had a .658 OPS in the seven-game World Series. It requires timely hits.
It’s too simple to distill everything to chase rate, the metric stuck in Philadelphia’s head since the 2023 National League Championship Series. The Phillies saw pitches to hit in Thursday’s loss and did not hit them. Brandon Marsh, who departed with a bruised right foot, saw nine pitches, and eight were in the zone. He struck out twice and grounded into a double play. His OPS is down to .730, the lowest it’s been since April 21. Bryson Stott is slumping. So is Crawford. J.T. Realmuto, who did not play Thursday, has one extra-base hit in his last 11 starts. The lineup does not feel as deep as it did in August.
All that awaits them in Atlanta is Chris Sale.
“We’ve got our hands full (Friday) night,” Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said. “I think it’s just win. Just try to win a game.”