Americans should expect Medicare costs to rise in the years ahead because of the nation’s aging population, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), said on Thursday.
Oz said in an interview with Newsmax that spending growth is likely as more seniors enroll in Medicare and use health care services, though he said the administration’s goal is to keep increases in line with inflation rather than allowing costs to grow faster.
“The Medicare costs are gonna increase because of the national demographic shift. More older people using services that are required for them to stay healthy.” Oz said during his conversation on The Record with Greta Van Susteren.
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Why It Matters
More than 68 million Americans are enrolled in Medicare, and the program’s costs are projected to climb as the baby boomer generation ages into retirement.
Growing costs have fueled bipartisan concerns about Medicare’s finances, and Oz’s new comments suggest Medicare spending pressures will likely continue to rise rather than stabilize or decline. For beneficiaries, these rising program costs can eventually affect premiums and deductibles.
What To Know
Van Susteren asked Oz during his Thursday appearance whether Americans should expect Medicare costs to remain flat, increase or decline next year.
Oz responded: “No, the Medicare costs are gonna increase because of the national demographic shift—more older people using services that are required for them to stay healthy.”
However, he added that increases would be more acceptable if they track inflation.
“I’m willing to tolerate, and I think all of us would, if Medicare increases at the same rate as inflation,” Oz said. “That’s fair. We just don’t want it to increase faster than inflation.”
As Americans live longer and more people reach retirement age, Medicare enrollment continues to expand, increasing demand for hospital care, prescription drugs and other benefits.
“The problem for beneficiaries is that Medicare doesn’t absorb all of those increases,” Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek.
“Some eventually show up in premiums, deductibles and other out of pocket costs. For retirees living on relatively fixed incomes, even a modest increase matters because health care is competing with groceries, housing and everything else,” he said.
The Trump administration has been focused on reshaping federal health policy in recent months. However, because Medicare is primarily financed by taxes paid by current workers while providing benefits to retirees, an aging population can bring along problems, experts say.
“What worries me more is the long term math,” Ryan said. “You can fight fraud and negotiate drug prices, and we absolutely should. But you can’t fraud prevention your way out of an aging population that needs more care.”
Health care spending also tends to rise with age, particularly for hospital care and chronic disease management.
“The warning about health care affordability is difficult to ignore when fewer than half of Americans can now afford needed care on a regular basis, and even Medicare beneficiaries are seeing premiums take up more and more of their income,” Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.
“The larger concern is that health care inflationary pressures have become a retirement and economic-security issue. When medical costs rise faster than incomes, seniors lose purchasing power and the federal government must devote a growing share of its funds to maintaining Medicare.”
Why Medicare Spending Faces Upward PressureMedicare Costs vs. Inflation
Oz suggested that the key test should be whether Medicare spending grows faster than inflation.
Because current inflation data shows an annual consumer price growth of 3.4 percent, increases that match this type of inflation would be reasonable, he said, but faster growth could be concerning for Americans.
However, some push back on the narrative that these costs will rise inevitably without health insurance availability playing a role.
“Medicare costs are rising not only due to increased demand, but also due to the for-profit nature of the industry,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
“Quite often, the more uninsured people you have in a system, the higher the cost burden will be for those who are insured. Until we can get everyone covered, higher costs will continue to be passed on to the insured to help cover the burden.”
What Happens Next
Medicare beneficiaries can expect more information about 2027 costs in the coming months.
As the 2026 midterm campaign ramps up, Medicare is also likely to stay a major political issue, with both parties offering competing visions for how to maintain the program’s financial health while protecting access to care.
“The real question isn’t whether Medicare costs will rise,” Ryan said. “They will. It’s whether we can make the health care we’re paying more for actually worth more.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.