Every summer, several NHL teams make major moves they hope will propel them into Stanley Cup contention, and every fall, some of those teams begin to feel buyer’s remorse for their summer aggressiveness. Unfortunately for these teams, buyer’s remorse is rarely short-lived and often leads to years of pain; eventually, people lose their jobs. Good examples include the Nashville Predators in 2024 and the Calgary Flames in the summer of 2023. This fall and winter, there will be teams that feel buyer’s remorse for their summer moves. So, who could they be?
The San Jose Sharks were among the most aggressive teams this past summer, acquiring Michael Kesselring, Jacob Trouba, Mason Marchment, and Darnell Nurse. The Kesselring and Marchment moves were solid, with Kesselring having the potential to jump into the Sharks’ top four, but the Trouba and Nurse moves could be disasters for the emerging Sharks. This dynamic has been written about extensively on PHR, but the combination of Trouba and Nurse counts $17.5MM against the Sharks’ cap, and both are on the wrong side of 30. That’s not to say that either player isn’t useful; they both are NHL players. But their games have warts, which isn’t a deal for defensemen making north of $8MM.
Nurse remains a capable defenseman with a decent skill set, though it isn’t what it once was. For Nurse, the issue has never really been the regular season, although last year wasn’t great. No, the issue for Nurse and, to be honest, for Oilers fans, was his play in the playoffs, not in any one season but over five seasons. As David Staples of the Edmonton Journal pointed out, Nurse struggled in the playoffs nearly every year Edmonton made it, making him a lightning rod for criticism when games mattered most. Had Nurse simply been his regular-season self, fans in Edmonton might have begrudged his $9.25MM cap hit, but it wouldn’t have been a major issue overall, just a slight overpay. But when your second-pairing defenseman (who’s paid like a number one defenseman) turns into a below-replacement-level player, that’s a huge issue. Hopefully, Nurse figures out his game in the playoffs for San Jose; otherwise, they will regret the trade immensely.
Sliding over to Trouba, we’ve written about him as well this summer. The 32-year-old had a bounce-back season last year in Anaheim and is prime for regression this year. Folks may forget that it was less than two years ago that the New York Rangers dumped Trouba as a cap dump to the Ducks. With the rising salary cap, Trouba was able to catch a raise on his new deal with the Sharks, signing for four years at $8.25MM annually. As we wrote earlier this summer, that contract for Trouba isn’t likely to age well and will almost certainly lead to buyer’s remorse for the Sharks. Much like Nurse, Trouba will eat up a lot of minutes for San Jose. He will also make some good offensive plays and lay some big hits in the process. But he will also do a lot of running around in his own end and make a ton of mistakes as he chases the big hits and big plays. If his skating holds up, he won’t be a disaster, but if his legs go at all in the next few years, this contract could become a problem.
Next up are the Chicago Blackhawks and a couple of questionable moves they made to make the roster resemble that of a playoff contender. The Patrick Kane signing wasn’t an especially good move, but it’s not the contract the Hawks will regret in the coming years. Bowen Byram was acquired along with Jordan Greenway from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for the fourth overall pick, the 45th overall pick, and defenseman Louis Crevier.
Byram is a highly skilled offensive defenseman who can carry the puck and create chances for his teammates. If he fits with Chicago and plays as he did last year alongside the Blackhawks’ top players, he could drive play without hurting the team. However, if his play reverts to what it was before last season and in the few years prior, the contract will be a major problem for the Blackhawks. Despite his obvious on-ice talents, Byram hasn’t demonstrated that he is an NHL number-one defenseman, yet Chicago gave up a package and signed him to a contract that says he is.
There has long been a gap between Byram’s on-ice results and the skill set he shows when you use the eye test to evaluate his play. Byram is a phenomenal skater and can lead rushes or simply join them, depending on the rush dynamic. He can also skate his way out of trouble, use his playmaking to set up teammates, or pivot to his shot, which is both accurate and heavy. On the flip side, Byram’s defense is poor; his puck-watching in his own end is a problem, and his defensive reads leave much to be desired. Should Chicago find Byram the right teammates to support him, he’ll be fine. But if they can’t, it could be a long year for both Byram and the Blackhawks.
Finally, we have the Washington Capitals, who were arguably the NHL’s most aggressive team this summer. The Capitals made some major moves, including a sign-and-trade for forward Alex Tuch, the trade for Jordan Kyrou, and UFA signings such as Boone Jenner and Vincent Desharnais. Not all of these moves will lead to buyer’s remorse, but three have the potential to go sideways, two of which could happen in a hurry. The Kyrou trade was a solid piece of business for the Capitals, and it’s hard to find fault with the move. However, Tuch, Jenner and Desharnais all carry significant risk, and the latter carries risk without much upside.
Tuch has been a perennial 30-goal scorer for the past handful of seasons and has the potential to pile up a few good years with Washington’s formidable offense. Tuch is a smart player and should continue to score for a few seasons, but he has already begun to lose some speed and isn’t as willing as he once was to battle along the boards. He still carries a lot of value, but the concern for Washington is that if he continues to lose skating, it could begin to impact his overall game, which is a lot of risk for a guy being paid $10.5MM per season over the next eight years. Tuch is already 30 and could decline over the next few years, which is likely part of why the Buffalo Sabres were so hesitant to meet his contract demands. Power forwards don’t age as gracefully as other NHLers, and as Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic put it, “A lot of Tuch’s comps had a relatively harsh age curve that could spell trouble for Washington.”
Beyond Tuch’s mega deal, the Jenner deal was another pricey acquisition for a player whose best days are likely behind him, or very close to being so. Jenner should be a third-liner on the Capitals and bring some leadership, although it’s hard to quantify the leadership a 13-year veteran with exactly one (seven-game) playoff series win will bring. Jenner adds to the Caps’ center depth, isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty, and will likely remain a tough player to play against and a decent playmaker. But his two-way forward reputation should be set aside, as he is no longer the defender he once was, and that could become a problem in the latter half of this contract if he isn’t able to contribute offensively and his defensive play continues to taper off. The Capitals likely view the gamble here as a chance to take runs at a Stanley Cup while Alex Ovechkin is still in the NHL, and in a vacuum, it makes sense. It could be short-sighted if Jenner’s play falls off.
Finally, we have defenseman Desharnais, whose signing might have been the most head-scratching at the start of free agency. Washington gave the 30-year-old $4.2MM per season on a four-year deal for a lightly used third-pairing defenseman who produces almost no offense and has fairly pedestrian metrics. Desharnais is a purely defensive defenceman who can suppress opponents with his long reach and physicality but doesn’t do much else well. He is an NHL defender but isn’t much more than a sixth- or seventh-pairing defenseman, which is a big reason for the sticker shock when folks saw his contract details. It’s clear Washington sees utility in his skill set, but at the moment it’s hard to justify that kind of acquisition cost, and there is a strong possibility that the Capitals end up regretting the deal fairly early in the term.
While not every move in this article will go sideways for the acquiring team, many teams end up regretting their summer moves, and it’s common for what a general manager does on July 1st to end up costing them their job. It’s no guarantee that San Jose, Chicago, and Washington will all regret their work this summer, but one or more moves could lead to someone losing their job if things go south.