Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include potential under-the-radar breakout players, playoff predictions, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our last two mailbag columns.
Nha Trang: Heh, you know the annual Tage Thompson question’s coming, Brian: what guys are going to come out of nowhere to become serious impact players?
Before getting into this year’s answer, let’s look back at last year’s selection of Zach Benson. He jumped up to 43 points in 65 regular season games, then had a breakout performance in the playoffs, helping earn him a long-term contract. That’s not a Tage Thompson-level breakout like the first year of this question but it’s an improvement over the year before. (For anyone curious about the pick history, it’s recapped here.)
Back in 2022-23, I put in the self-imposed restriction of not taking a player in the top 300 in scoring from the previous season. That basically rules out anyone with 30 or more points so pickings are pretty slim. And while I could cheat and pick Kent Johnson to have a rebound year, he’s already technically had a breakout season (in 2024-25). Youngsters like Gabriel Perreault, Zeev Buium, Easton Cowan, Michael Misa, and Dalibor Dvorsky could fit the bill but wouldn’t be coming out of nowhere either.
And you’re asking for guys, as in plural, this year. So, let’s go quickly. Pavel Mintyukov in Anaheim is still a youngster himself but he’s off his entry-level contract. Anaheim’s back end is a disaster behind Jackson LaCombe. That should pave the way for Mintyukov to get a much bigger role with minimal competition for minutes, allowing him to blossom into the defenseman they’re paying for on his new hefty contract. He could plausibly go from being a fourth or fifth defender to a number two option and he seems to be flying under the radar a bit.
Up front, let’s go with Maksim Shabanov. He was supposed to be an impactful rookie last year out of the KHL but he struggled offensively in a program where a lot of offensive players seem to underwhelm. Now, he’s on a one-year deal that almost feels like a last-chance contract already. There are top-six minutes available and if he lands with Kirill Kaprizov at times, he could be in for a big jump point-wise. While Tyson Foerster isn’t an out-of-nowhere player, he’s coming off an injury-riddled year but he now has the long-term contract and expectations to help Philadelphia stay in the playoffs. Jumping from 17 points to a career-best 60-point campaign wouldn’t shock me.
rayk: I understand the idea of a draft lottery is to prevent so-called “tanking”. Do you think that it goes too far when in the last two drafts, teams like NYI, Utah and SJ move up so many slots when they are all borderline playoff teams? Why is the system set up so that so many teams can get top-four picks? Thanks.
Let’s answer the last one first. The system is set up to deter teams from trying to truly bottom out like Vancouver did last season. It used to be that finishing last meant you picked first or had a really high chance to do so. By creating flatter lottery odds, teams are supposed to be more disinclined to race to the bottom. I’m not sure it’s necessarily having the desired effect but that’s the why of it.
As for the last couple of drafts, in 2025, the Islanders won with a 3.5% chance and the Sharks, who finished dead last, won the second slot (in other words, they lost a spot). This year, Toronto won with an 8.5% chance and then the Sharks again got second, this time with just 5% odds. If we go back to 2024, there was no movement at all; the bottom two teams won the top two picks.
Probabilistically speaking, the combined odds of a team with 3.5% odds winning one year and 8.5% odds winning the next is less than one-third of one percent. In other words, that combination was a total fluke and isn’t likely to be repeated or assumed to continue. I’m not sure the league is necessarily worried about that. They probably like the element of randomness in the hopes of getting teams to think twice about tanking.
Is it too far? I don’t think it is. The odds were leaned more toward the bottom teams before, resulting in several teams outright tanking. That’s what led to this system. Maybe it can be tightened up to reduce the number of teams that could move up to pick first. Perhaps a team can only move up eight spots instead of ten (it used to be four), or something like that. But I don’t mind the current system overall.
deca guard: Can Finnie play center in the NHL?
Emmitt Finnie, one of the neat stories last season, made the Red Wings out of training camp as a 20-year-old seventh-round pick and never looked back. He spent a good chunk of time in the top six but almost exclusively played on the wing as he got acclimated to playing at a new level probably earlier than anyone realistically would have expected.
For those not familiar with Finnie, he was a center back in junior with WHL Kamloops (full time in his final two seasons) and while faceoff success rate isn’t the be-all, end-all, he was over 55% at the dot. That suggests he can get to at least an acceptable level on that front in the NHL. But there is more to playing center than faceoff play. Shift-to-shift consistency, defensive awareness, and attention to detail need to be present as well and that wasn’t always the case for Finnie last season. That’s not a slight either; he was a 20-year-old who bypassed the AHL. Of course there are going to be some deficiencies there.
He showed enough good moments to make me think he can handle playing the position although I’m not sure he’d necessarily thrive there. But if his consistency picks up and the two-way game remains, then Finnie could very well be a capable option down the middle. I expect he’ll predominantly remain on the wing this season (unless trades force their hand otherwise) but I hope they find a spot to give him a few games here and there to start lower-level evaluations of his fit. Given their perpetual need for capable centers, it’s an experiment worth trying.
Breakaway: 4 in and 4 out.
What four teams make the playoffs this year that didn’t make it last year and what four teams fall out of the playoffs?
Atlantic: Tampa Bay is still strong enough to be a playoff team, as is Montreal. Buffalo has taken a step back but I think they’re in the Wild Card mix still. A lot went right for Boston last year and it wouldn’t shock me if they took a step back so let’s pick them to miss. Florida is the safe bet to go from missing to making.
The question is if there’s going to be another flip. And considering my picks to come in the West, I suppose I need to pick another one here. By process of elimination, that means Ottawa comes out. I don’t trust Detroit to right the ship with how chaotic things are there right now so by process of elimination, I guess Toronto comes in. If they get stabilized goaltending this season, it’s plausible that they could be in the mix.
Metropolitan: Carolina’s a lock. Washington going from a non-playoff team to a top-three team in the division seems likely. After that is a toss-up. I have to pick either Philadelphia or Pittsburgh to come out and I would pick Pittsburgh between the two. That’s not to say I’m overly confident about the Flyers either, though.
The thing is, I don’t trust any other team in that division. The Islanders look like a team that could just miss again, though them squeaking in wouldn’t shock me. The Rangers are different but I’m not sure how much better they are going back to last season when they had Artemi Panarin. Columbus is in some trouble and are a better candidate to finish eighth in the division than make the playoffs.
Then there’s New Jersey. They have a playoff-caliber roster up front and on the back end. But their goaltending is a giant red flag. Jake Allen isn’t a starter, David Rittich is a mediocre backup, and Nico Daws may or may not be an NHL-level backup. I expect their goaltending to cost them a playoff spot so as of today, I have them out. If they get a real starter, however, then move them in and the Flyers out.
Central: The big three remain the big three. Utah is at the top of the next tier and should secure a Wild Card spot. I don’t see any of the other four getting in there. If everything went right in St. Louis, they could make it interesting if the Central winds up with both Wild Cards but as of today, I’m forecasting no changes here (which is why I had to pick two in the Atlantic to meet the requirement of four). I’m expecting Winnipeg eventually trades Connor Hellebuyck without getting a true starter back which probably has them on the outside again as Stuart Skinner isn’t the guy to lead them to the promised land.
Pacific: Vegas made it interesting last season but they’ll be fine. A more structured Edmonton roster keeps them in the mix. I don’t think the Kings are materially better than a Wild Card team but I think they can hold that spot again. And let’s quickly rule out Calgary, Vancouver, and Seattle, whose fortunes shouldn’t be much different than a year ago.
Thus, my final change of four is San Jose in and Anaheim out. The Sharks are better and deeper than they were a year ago with plenty of developmental runway for more improvement. They’re not a Cup contender but I think they’re a playoff contender. The Ducks have a lot of room for internal growth, too, but their back end is nowhere near good enough. That will put too much pressure on Lukas Dostal and whichever underwhelming veteran secures the backup job, causing them to fall out.
lgr34561: I know a lot of people are confused by the Korpisalo trade but maybe if the Rangers are struggling again, they will attempt to trade Shesterkin and land a massive haul while clearing out a load of cap space. That way, they can try to build toward the future and maybe use that cap to land a superstar in free agency.
I don’t think the Rangers acquired Joonas Korpisalo as insurance for a potential Igor Shesterkin trade. They acquired him because they evidently don’t trust Dylan Garand as a full-time backup goalie. Korpisalo is a serviceable second-string option while Garand is unproven. Given the relatively cheap acquisition price, they felt it was worthwhile.
I’ll play along with the scenario though. Assuming Shesterkin moves, they’d have to get a starter back as a Korpisalo-Garand tandem is a ticket to the basement in the standings which is unappealing to free agents. If they’re getting a starter back, the net savings will only be a few million. That won’t be enough to go after an impact piece in free agency, let alone a superstar.
On that last point, how often does a star player, let alone a superstar, even make it to the open market? With the projected cap increases, teams have more flexibility to try to retain their players. Meanwhile, as some players become more emboldened about trying to coerce a trade to a desired team, that makes them less likely to test free agency as well. If you’re a general manager waiting on a superstar free agent to come in and give your team a boost, that’s a strategy that seems likely to fail much more than it works now.
Black Ace57: With the growing talk about expanding with another two teams, I was thinking about the Golden Knights and Kraken expansion drafts. While one team did much better than the other, both benefited from being the only new team. Do you think the league is going to add two teams the same season when they do or do you think there will be any consideration of staggering the expansion so each team gets their own expansion drafts?
I don’t believe that’s the current plan. While there is speculative talk beyond another Texas-based team with both Atlanta and Phoenix in the mix, they seem to be a lot further along the process with the Texas options than the others. I don’t think they’d want to wait on that team launching until another one gets through the process. In Atlanta’s case along, there are at least three different groups pursuing a team, all with different arena and development plans. That will slow the process down.
Like Vegas and Seattle, I don’t think there will be a particularly long gap between the two new franchises entering but both of them will get their own expansion drafts. Then, the question will be how many more wind up joining them after that as I’m sure once they start this next round, they’re not stopping at 34.
LifesABeach: Do fans realize they’re paying the skyrocketing player salaries through hyperinflation of products offered by advertisers and media conglomerates?
Greed will sink society. $700 for a jersey or $25 for a burger. It’s fine, as long as Makar makes $100K/minute played.
I’m sure some do. Some probably don’t look at it that way or care, though, as long as their favorite player stays or their team adds someone new.
Being a professional sports fan is an expensive hobby. Even if you don’t go to games or buy merchandise, too; merely keeping up with the cost of the various packages to watch games on television or streaming is expensive enough. But by now, you know what you’re getting into, albeit somewhat begrudgingly at times.
Without getting into a big economic dissertation, if people didn’t pay the prices, some would come down. Most teams use dynamic pricing, knowing it ultimately brings in more money. But if people didn’t buy at the premium points and there was a lot of unsold ticket inventory on game day, teams would change. Same with merchandise and concessions. But if there are enough people willing to keep paying higher prices, teams and media companies are going to keep charging higher prices. It’s annoying for sure but it’s not going away.
Photo courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.