Postsecondary attainment is critical driver of workforce development and economic growth, but cost remains the largest barrier to completing a degree. Even as artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes the future of our nation’s workforce, higher education will play a central role in equipping students with the knowledge and critical thinking skills they need to be resilient in the face of these changes – but only if it remains within financial reach.

The Affordability Gap, the National College Attainment Network’s (NCAN’s) annual study on college costs within the public postsecondary sector, identifies the prevalence of “unaffordable” public bachelor’s-granting institutions and community colleges across the United States for students from families with low to moderate incomes. In our updated analysis, NCAN found that affordability gaps widened in both sectors during the 2023-24 academic year. While tuition has plateaued recently, inflation has driven up costs of living. Investments in public higher education programs have struggled to keep pace, eroding the purchasing power of available aid.

According to NCAN’s analysis of 570 community colleges and 542 public B.A.-granting institutions:


 Just under one-third (32%) of public B.A.-granting institutions were affordable in the 2023-24 academic year
 Fewer than half (42%) of community colleges were financially within reach
 The average affordability gap at public B.A.-granting institutions in the NCAN sample was $1,801
 The average gap at community colleges was $1,228

Measuring affordability is complicated. NCAN proposes that for each institution in our sample, the total price of college for an in-state student, plus an additional $300 to account for emergency expenses, should not exceed the combined total of grant aid, federal loans, Federal Work Study (FWS), an estimated expected family contribution (EFC), and three months of employment at minimum wage, to account for summer earnings. Put more simply, an institution meets NCAN’s criteria if:

In this year’s report, there were 12 states where aid, family contribution, and earnings did not cover the cost of any public B.A.-granting institution in NCAN’s sample (Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont). In seven states, no community college in the sample met NCAN’s criteria (Connecticut, Idaho, Indiana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Utah, and Vermont). Five states appear on both lists. Only four states (Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, and New Mexico) had an average institution that met NCAN’s criteria in both sectors.

Several factors contributed to affordability gaps observed this year: rising inflation, varied state investments in higher education, and actions taken by the US Department of Education to improve how institutions calculate and report food, housing, transportation, and other indirect expenses. During the 2023-24 academic year, living expenses made up a larger share of the cost of attendance than tuition and fees, on average.

Affordability gaps persisted despite a historic $500 increase in the Pell Grant, which brought the maximum award to $7,395 for 2023-24, where it has remained level-funded ever since. NCAN’s analysis suggests that even with a sizeable increase to the Pell maximum, students had significant unmet need. This finding underscores the importance of strengthening investments in student aid to restore the purchasing power of Pell and other need-based aid.

Closing affordability gaps and ensuring that all students can access and afford postsecondary education will require coordinated effort from both federal and state policy makers. State investments in higher education vary widely across the country, and state education appropriations will face significant budget pressures in the coming year as a result of recent cuts to SNAP and Medicaid. NCAN’s annual Affordability Gap Spotlight on the Midwest details the state policy and funding trends shaping college affordability in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

The findings in this year’s Affordability Gap analysis make clear that the aid available to low- and moderate-income students is not sufficient to cover the true cost of attending a public B.A.-granting institution or community college. Even with a record high maximum Pell Grant, less than half of the public colleges in each sector met NCAN’s definition for affordability. Without action, students will face shrinking access to the postsecondary education that fuels economic mobility and strengthens our workforce.

To learn more about NCAN’s affordability analysis, check out the full report here, or explore the data in our updated Tableau dashboard and state affordability profiles.