Talk about a festival bump.
In the week following La Bola Negra’s People’s Choice Award victory at the Toronto International Film Festival, Netflix’s Spanish-language epic is skyrocketing in the Gold Derby experts’ odds. These award-industry pundits see it trending upward in Best Picture (up 1%), Best Director for Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo (up 14%), Best Supporting Actress for Penélope Cruz (up 7%), Best Supporting Actor for Guitarricadelafuente (up 4%), and Best Adapted Screenplay (up 1%). Below-the-line categories will be added to our predictions center soon.
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Here’s a closer look at La Bola Negra’s Oscar momentum:
BEST PICTUREBest Picture
Contender
Odds
1.
The Odyssey
100.0%
2.
Wild Horse Nine
100.0%
3.
Project Hail Mary
96.3%
4.
La Bola Negra
92.6%
5.
The Debut
88.9%
Netflix is still looking for its first win in this category and La Bola Negra is its best hope this year. Buoyed by festival buzz, La Bola Negra is now in fourth place for a nomination. The experts’ lineup is currently led by The Odyssey, Wild Horse Nine, and Project Hail Mary, but there’s plenty of room for a shakeup between now and when the nominations are announced on Jan. 21.
As the TIFF People’s Choice Award recipient, La Bola Negra is a virtual lock for a nod. Last year’s TIFF champ, Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, received eight overall Oscar nods. Past picks like 2023’s American Fiction, 2022’s The Fabelmans, and 2021’s Belfast also went on to make the final list of 10 contenders. The odd film out was 2024’s The Life of Chuck, which was acquired by Neon out of that year’s TIFF, but not released until the summer of 2025 and didn’t factor into the awards cycle.
BEST DIRECTORBest Director
Contender
Odds
1.
Christopher Nolan
The Odyssey
100.0%
2.
Martin McDonagh
Wild Horse Nine
92.0%
3.
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo
La Bola Negra
84.0%
4.
Olivia Wilde
The Invite
64.0%
5.
Denis Villeneuve
Dune: Part Three
36.0%
Ambrossi and Calvo, collectively known as Los Javis, could make history this year as the fifth duo nominated for directing, and the most recent following Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, who won for Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022). Los Javis’ double-digit gain in Best Director now places them in third place behind front-runner Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey) and projected runner-up Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSBest Supporting Actress
Contender
Odds
1.
Anne Hathaway
The Odyssey
92.6%
2.
Samantha Morton
The Odyssey
85.2%
3.
Penelope Cruz
La Bola Negra
66.7%
4.
Penelope Cruz
The Invite
51.9%
5.
Tao Okamoto
All of a Sudden
40.7%
Almost two decades after winning an Oscar for her supporting turn in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008), Cruz could take advantage of an Academy rule update and receive two bids in the category. She plays Nené Romero, a singer who entertains the troops in La Bola Negra; and Pina, the sultry neighbor in The Invite. Cruz places third and fourth, per our experts, with The Odyssey co-stars Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton topping the category. There was some initial category confusion over Hathaway’s placement, but we learned earlier this month she’d be going supporting instead of lead.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTORBest Supporting Actor
Contender
Odds
1.
Paul Giamatti
The Debut
100.0%
2.
Sam Rockwell
Wild Horse Nine
96.3%
3.
John Leguizamo
The Odyssey
70.4%
4.
Edward Norton
The Invite
70.4%
5.
John Goodman
Digger
33.3%
Spanish singer-songwriter Guitarricadelafuente plays Sebastián, a young prison guard who falls in love with a prisoner in 1937 during the Spanish Civil War. This is the young actor’s feature film debut, and he’s also eligible in the Best Song category for “La Nieve,” now available on all platforms. Guitarricadelafuente has been steadily rising in our predictions after announcing he would compete in supporting instead of lead. The category is currently led by Paul Giamatti (The Debut) and Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYBest Adapted Screenplay
Contender
Odds
1.
The Odyssey
100.0%
2.
The Invite
92.0%
3.
La Bola Negra
92.0%
4.
Project Hail Mary
88.0%
5.
All of a Sudden
32.0%
Ambrossi, Calvo, and Conejero wrote the screenplay for La Bola Negra based on the unfinished work of the same name by Federico García Lorca and Conejero’s play, La Piedra Oscura. The Odyssey currently leads the screenplay race, with The Invite and La Bola Negra tied for second place.
La Bola Negra opens in Spain on Sept. 25 and in the U.S. on Oct. 16 before streaming on Netflix Dec. 2.
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