Cal and Virginia Tech played a double-overtime thriller in Lane Stadium last season. (Jon Fleming)
Virginia Tech at Cal: Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET (ACCN) from California Memorial Stadium (52,428) in Berkeley, Calif.
Betting line: Virginia Tech -10.0
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Virginia Tech (4-1, 1-1) is back in action on Saturday with a West Coast trip to Cal (2-3, 1-1). The Hokies will have to respond positively to adversity after losing for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears are off to a tough start in the first season under new head coach Tosh Lupoi.
After last season, Cal fired Justin Wilcox, who did a decent job in a tough spot, and replaced him with Lupoi, who coached under Nick Saban at Alabama and was Dan Lanning’s defensive coordinator at Oregon since 2022. However, he had no previous head coaching experience, and the Bears have had major issues getting their passing game going, along with stopping the run on the defensive side of the ball.
Cal beat FCS Wagner and struggled its way to a 21-18 win over Syracuse. It lost to UCLA (45-24), Clemson (24-10) and UNLV (39-31). With Wake Forest and SMU coming up, plus an East Coast trip to NC State, the Bears will be gunning for a win over the Hokies because they face the possibility of a substantial losing streak, especially since they come into this contest having already lost two in a row.
We’ve Heard This Story Before
After a tough start to the season for the offense, Lupoi shook things up a bit for the UNLV game by redistributing offensive responsibilities.
Jordan Somerville remains the team’s offensive coordinator, but it wasn’t clear until his Tuesday press conference whether he, quarterbacks coach Nick Rolovich or even passing game coordinator Pat McCann called the Golden Bears’ plays in the second half at UNLV. On Tuesday, Lupoi confirmed he passed off those duties to McCann.
Somerville has never been a coordinator before. He was most recently the assistant quarterbacks coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. McCann was an offensive coordinator before at Fresno State, while Rolovich was the offensive coordinator at Nevada. He also has head-coaching experience at Hawaii and Washington State. (He was also Cal’s interim head coach last season when Wilcox was fired.)
In other words, a first-time head coach, who is a former defensive coordinator, hired a first-year offensive coordinator from the NFL and supported him by hiring two former offensive coordinators around him. In case you were curious, Cal also has a first-time coordinator (Michael Hutchings) on the defensive side of the ball. Does any of this sound familiar?
It sure sounds like a 2022 Virginia Tech West Coast reboot, and I know what happened to the Hokies in 2022. I never thought I’d ever see that exact formula in college football again, but here we are. What’s even more interesting is the man who approved it.
Cal alum Ron Rivera, who was the head coach of Carolina and Washington in the NFL, is now the Golden Bears’ football general manager. He’s not the type of GM who works for the head coach. Instead, he’s the type of GM who hires the head coach, NFL-style.
He hired Lupoi, approved this coaching staff and isn’t exactly being hands-off. In fact, he’s patrolling the sidelines with a headset, listening to everything that’s being said and evaluating his hires in real time.
Rivera actually made an impromptu appearance and spoke at Tuesday’s press conference, explaining the play-calling change and supporting Lupoi’s decision.
That seems like an odd arrangement, and when things happen like the offensive coaching duties being “reassigned” after just four games, you’ve got to wonder who is actually in charge.
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Last season in Blacksburg, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was 24-for-39 for 286 yards and a touchdown. (Ivan Morozov)
Will JKS Play?
Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (6-3, 225, So.), who we will refer to as “JKS” for the remainder of this preview, got off to an impressive start to his college career by earning the starting job as a true freshman. He completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 3,454 yards, with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2025.
Though his passer rating, completion percentage and yards-per-attempt are all technically up this year, much of that came in the win against overmatched Wagner. For anyone who has watched Cal play this year, it’s clear that he hasn’t taken the step forward that many hoped he would. So far, he’s averaging an interception per game.
It’s probably not all his fault, though, considering the issues the Bears seem to be having with their offensive coaching staff.
He was knocked out of Cal’s 39-31 loss to UNLV this past weekend with an apparent head injury. Lupoi had this to say after the game:
“Jaron, when we came out, was medically cleared. I personally was not comfortable with the way he came off the field. [He was] literally wobbling. He was medically cleared to go in. I made that decision to start out with Jackson [Brousseau] and not jeopardize Jaron’s health.”
That makes me wonder what the heck is going on with Cal’s medical staff. It cleared a quarterback who clearly shouldn’t have been playing? That also sounds way too familiar.
If JKS can’t go, then Jackson Brousseau (6-4, 225, r-Jr.) would be the starter. He was 19-for-32 for 200 yards with two touchdowns against UNLV.
He has experience, spending part of last season as the starter at Colorado State. He completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,354 yards, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, but only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.
Running Back Injuries
Running backs Carter Vargas (5-11, 205, r-So.) and Adam Mohammed (6-0, 220, Jr.) both started the season opener against UCLA. Neither player was available for last week’s loss to UNLV, though. Vargas went down early in that UCLA game after recording four carries and two receptions. Mohammed went down in Week 4 against Clemson.
I don’t know much about Vargas, but I’ve been impressed with Mohammed. He ran for 523 yards at Washington last season, and has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career. He’s also an effective receiver out of the backfield with 40 career receptions. I like his size and his physicality.
If Mohammed and Vargas aren’t available against Virginia Tech, the Bears will lean on Ashten Emory (5-11, 210, r-So.), who is also a solid, physical runner. He ran for 569 yards and four touchdowns as a redshirt freshman at UTEP last season.
However, he can’t carry the load by himself, and depth is an issue here for Cal. Last week’s second-leading rusher was true freshman wide receiver Tyree Sams, who played for the very first time and lined up as a running back on six occasions.
Overall, this group of running backs is capable, but we don’t know if Mohammed or Vargas will be able to play on Saturday.
The Cal Offensive Line
Here’s how the Cal line looks, from left to right:
• LT Frederick Williams III (6-5, 335, r-Jr.): 1,154 snaps. Williams struggled the last two seasons. He’s been better this year, though he’s still looked shaky in pass blocking against the two most talented teams Cal has faced (UCLA and Clemson).
• LG Tyson Ruffins (6-2, 310, r-Jr.): 2,024 snaps. The Nevada transfer is a very experienced player, and he’s been above average overall at both schools. Historically, he’s been a better pass blocker than run blocker.
• C Bastian Swinney (6-6, 315, r-Sr.): 1,710 snaps. Swinney is in his sixth season in Berkeley, and he’s played a lot of football. He’s mostly been what you would call a replacement-level player in baseball.
• RG Sioape Vatikani (6-4, 330, r-Sr.): 2,604 snaps. The most experienced player on the offensive line, Vatikani is in his fifth season at Cal. He’s started since he was a freshman. However, his best yearly PFF grade was a 57.8, which is a bit below the “average” level of 60.
• RT Michael Klisiewicz (6-6, 310, r-Fr.): 258 snaps. Klisiewicz has started the last three games at right tackle. He’s a young guy who probably isn’t quite ready for prime time at this stage.
Though it can’t be pinned entirely on the offensive line, the following numbers (against FBS competition) indicate the Bears definitely have some issues up front
• Rushing YPG: 82.25, No. 130 out of 138
• Yards per Carry: 2.91, No. 123
• TFL Allowed: 6.75 per game, No. 113
• Sacks Allowed: 2.5 per game, No. 99
Those numbers bode well for a Virginia Tech defense that ranks No. 1 nationally in tackles for loss and No. 4 in sacks.
Cal tight end Mason Mini (85) had five receptions for 61 yards and a score last season against the Hokies. (Jon Fleming)
Targets In The Passing Game
With the struggles up front and the injuries at running back, Cal will sling the ball around. They’ve got three primary targets, not counting running back Adam Mohammed (17 catches).
• WR Chase Hendricks (6-0, 195, Sr.): He heads the team with 32 receptions, though he hasn’t been a big play threat at just 8.3 yards per catch. This is a sign that the offense is broken, as he had 1,037 yards and averaged 14.6 yards per reception at Ohio last season. That included 100-yard games against Rutgers and West Virginia, plus a 76-yard performance against Ohio State. He’s very capable.
• WR Ian Strong (6-4, 215, Sr.): Sometimes Strong tends to play a little smaller than his size, but with 134 catches for 1,967 yards and 13 touchdowns between his time at Cal and Rutgers, he’s been a very effective college player.
• TE Mason Mini (6-4, 245, r-Jr.): The Idaho transfer has 12 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown this year after catching 35 passes a year ago. He’s also completed three passes for 84 yards and a touchdown in his career, including a big gain against the Clemson defense earlier this season, so the Hokies must be aware of his passing ability.
Overall, Cal has thrown touchdown passes to nine different players this year. The passing game hasn’t been consistent at all, but there are some good players out there, and they’ll make life difficult for a secondary that isn’t dialed in.
The Cal Defense Against The Run
Stopping the run hasn’t been a strength for the Golden Bears so far this season. Here are the numbers for the season against FBS competition:
• YPG: 206.3, No. 122 out of 138
• YPC: 5.36, No. 122
Yikes. Ranking No. 122 in both of those stats is just about as bad as it gets. Of all Power Four teams, only Purdue and Rutgers have been worse at stopping the run this season, and those are two programs you usually don’t want to be associated with.
Here’s how Cal has done game-by-game:
• UCLA: 32 carries, 277 yards, 8.7 ypc
• Syracuse: 36 carries, 118 yards, 3.3 ypc
• Wagner: 27 carries, 112 yards, 4.1 ypc
• Clemson: 48 carries, 257 yards, 5.4 ypc
• UNLV: 38 carries, 173 yards, 4.6 ypc
I didn’t include FCS Wagner in the overall stats, but even the Seahawks managed to average over four yards per carry against this Cal defense.
Most of the Bears’ issues against UNLV were from a running quarterback, which the Hokies don’t have. However, the issues against UCLA and Clemson were because of a traditional running game.
Big plays have been a major issue. Here’s a look at the big-time runs the Golden Bears have allowed:
• 20-plus yards: 12, No. 135
• 30-plus yards: 7, No. 132
• 40-plus yards: 5, No. 135
• 50-plus yards: 4, No. 135
Jeffrey Overton Jr. and Marcellous Hawkins should be licking their chops.
The Cal Defense Against The Pass
On the other hand, the Golden Bears have put together one of the better pass defenses in the country over the first five games. Here are their numbers against FBS opponents:
• YPG: 195.3, No. 37
• YPA: 6.6, No. 39
• Opp. QB rating: 110.86, No. 12
Opponents haven’t thrown for very many yards, and they’ve been extremely inefficient. Here are the game-by-game numbers by those FBS teams:
• UCLA: 14-of-22, 184 yards, 8.8 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT
• Syracuse: 25-of-51, 319 yards, 6.3 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT
• Clemson: 14-of-22, 106 yards, 4.8 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT
• UNLV: 11-of-23, 177 yards, 7.7 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Those are some nice numbers, particularly the six interceptions (plus another against Wagner). If Cal is going to get a lot of picks, yet still have a bad season, I’d like to borrow a few of those interceptions for the Virginia Tech defense.
On the other hand, here’s a look at FBS opponents’ passer rating against the Golden Bears this year:
• UCLA: No. 59
• Syracuse: No. 88
• Clemson: No. 124
• UNLV: No. 66
It’s not like Cal has faced any top passing offenses. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is No. 31, and would be higher were it not for playing in a nor’easter in Boston.
While the Bears’ secondary might be the biggest test for Ethan Grunkemeyer and Co. so far, the reverse is also true. Cal hasn’t seen a passing offense like the one it’ll face on Saturday afternoon.
Kingston Lopa (2) was the ACC Defensive Back of the Week after three interceptions at Syracuse in September. (Cal athletics)
The Cal Defense: Ballhawks On The Back End
Cal has been very good at forcing turnovers this season. It has recovered two fumbles, one of which it returned for a touchdown against Clemson (its only TD of the game). It also has seven interceptions. The nine forced turnovers are tied for No. 16 nationally.
(As a side note, New Mexico is No. 1 with 19 forced turnovers this year in just five games. The next closest team is Alabama with 13. Remember the name Jason Eck.)
Starting safety Kingston Lopa (6-5, 210, r-So.) has had more to do with those turnover stats than anyone. He leads the team with five interceptions, which also paces the country. Three of his picks came against Syracuse.
However, Lopa exited the UNLV game with an injury after just one play, and his loss was felt as one of his replacements — Tristan Dunn — surrendered a long touchdown pass. Dunn is a fifth-year player with just 111 career snaps, so his talent is limited.
Last Saturday at UNLV was a contest of attrition for Cal’s secondary, as starting nickel Cam Sidney (5-11, 185, r-Sr.) was ejected for targeting in the first quarter, and starting cornerback Daniel Harris (6-3, 200, Sr.) followed him in the fourth quarter. That was in addition to the Lopa injury.
The Bears are obviously a much better secondary with all three of those guys available. We don’t have a status update for Lopa. Obviously, if he can play, the Cal defense will be much better off.
Another player to watch in the secondary is safety Isaiah Crosby (5-10, 190, r-Jr.), who has been excellent next to Lopa on the back end.
However, the Bears have plenty of work to do up front. They rank No. 106 nationally in tackles for loss and No. 58 in sacks, so they don’t play in the backfield very much.
This should be a less stressful day for the young Virginia Tech offensive line.
Special Teams
Outside of an Overton kickoff return, it’s safe to say that Virginia Tech lost the battle on special teams last week. It seemed like an even battle going in, with perhaps a slight advantage to the Hokies, so the result was disappointing. Everything else being equal or canceling each other out, that was a huge reason Tech lost.
Cal has had some issues in the kicking game. It’s used two kickers so far, with Chase Meyer and Towns McGough combining to go just 5-for-9 on the season, with no makes beyond 38 yards. On paper, that’s a big advantage for the Hokies’ John Love.
Also, expect Tech to have some chances on kickoff returns, with only seven of McGough’s 25 kicks going for touchbacks, and two sailing out of bounds. Wagner had a 51-yard return this year, so Overton should have a shot.
Likewise, Que’Sean Brown should have a chance in the punt return game. Opponents have nine returns for 155 yards, including a 65-yard punt return on a line-drive kick by Clemson’s Bryant Wesco Jr.
Overall, the numbers indicate the Hokies have a big advantage on special teams this week.
Predict the Score: Virginia Tech at Cal
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Staff Rankings — Pitt (2,049 entries):
Chris Coleman (Pitt 27, VT 24): No. 389
David Cunningham (Pitt 30, VT 24): No. 423
Andy Bitter (VT 27, Pitt 23): No. 901
Will Stewart (Pitt 24, VT 20): No. 1,103
Nick Brown (VT 24, Pitt 20): No. 1,400
Check out full results and rankings, including the TSL staff season rankings, on our Game Predictions page.
Staff Predictions
Chris Coleman (Lead Analyst & Columnist): Virginia Tech has been the better football team all season, and Cal has at least four key players who may not play this week. All signs are pointing to a Hokie win.
You know what’s also pointing to a Tech win? The Bears have a first-time head coach, who hired a first-time OC, put two former OCs around him and also hired a first-time DC. This is like a carbon copy of the 2022 Hokies on the West Coast, except with a bit more talent. I know better than to pick that combination to win against decent competition.
No huge analysis this time. The Hokies are better, and if their heads are in it, they’ll win.
Chris’ Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Cal 21
Will Stewart (Founder): In a lot of ways, Chris laid out that Cal is not a good football team.
One of the things we’ve talked about around the office this week is how similar this trip out West is to the one the Hokies took to Stanford in 2024. Virginia Tech had just lost a 38-34 heartbreaker to Miami on a last-second referee’s decision on a Friday night, then had to fly across the country to face a Pac-12 team … er, a West Coast ACC team.
Fast-forward to 2026 and it’s very similar. That 2024 Stanford team was 2-2 when it played Virginia Tech, and the Hokies were 2-3. It was unknown at the time that the Cardinal would tank the rest of the season and finish 3-9.
Our score predictions were fairly conservative, but the Hokies rolled Stanford 31-7, starting the Cardinal’s spiral and kicking off three straight wins for VT.
Cal is 2-2 but doesn’t seem to be on the same level as that Stanford team, which we respected going in but wound up being terrible. Will the Golden Bears also nosedive to something like a 3-9 final record? They might. Their last eight opponents, including the Hokies, are currently 25-10. Only Stanford, at 2-3, has a losing record.
Back to the matchups: Again, Cal isn’t very good, but that pass defense and its ability to force turnovers are two areas where it seems oddly competent — maybe even good. That’s all that gives me pause here. I’m going big here, hoping I don’t regret it.
Will’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Cal 13
David Cunningham (Managing Editor): I don’t think the Golden Bears are very good, and I think the Hokies will be ticked off coming off last Friday’s tough loss — similar to 2024 with Miami and Stanford, as Will mentioned.
Factor in all of Cal’s problems, from the coaching staff setup to the injuries, and it feels like a group that’s hanging on by a thread right now. I expect the Hokies to correct their mistakes from last week, take care of the ball and handle business on the West Coast. That’ll set up an opportunity to get bowl eligible next Saturday when Georgia Tech comes to town for homecoming.
David’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, Cal 14
Andy Bitter (Senior Staff Writer): Maybe this is the week Cal sorts it out. Maybe the musical chairs of play-callers finally hit a sweet spot and JKS starts to look like himself again (assuming he plays). Maybe Lupoi starts to put his defensive stamp on this team. Maybe.
I’ll make a wager that it all doesn’t come together magically this week. Perhaps the Bears sort some things out that have been problematic all year, but in a straight coaching matchup of James Franklin vs. Lupoi, give me the seasoned big whistle over the one who’s being pulled in all directions and is still trying to find his sea legs.
The Hokies will get the run game going, and even if Cal lands some offensive counterpunches, Tech has a good enough offense to win a shootout.
Andy’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 37, Cal 24
Nick Brown (Director of Media): The poor Calgorithm has suffered a rough first season under a new head coach. That has not stopped the fans from being hilarious on social media.
Unfortunately, Cal is another case of a proud, boisterous fan base that has not been rewarded with a good football team in quite some time.
Reports circulated that Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele did not practice on Tuesday. Truthfully, I don’t think it matters if he plays, as his numbers have been very pedestrian this season.
I expect Virginia Tech to establish the run early and try to push around the weak Golden Bears’ defensive line. The Hokies will roll to 5-1 at the halfway point of the season.
Nick’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 34, Cal 17