College football’s postseason picture needs a fresh coat of paint after Saturday.
Several SEC stunners and a surprise Big Ten scrambled the playoff conversation and sent our latest bowl projections in new directions.
This season’s postseason bracket has been anything but predictable, and Week 6 delivered, highlighted by Oklahoma’s walkoff field goal against top-ranked Texas, Kentucky’s stunning overtime win over No. 10 LSU and No. 21 UCLA’s statement victory at 13th-ranked Oregon.
Entering Saturday night’s Kansas-Utah game, only eight Power Four teams were still unbeaten. In the ACC, No. 25 Pittsburgh saw its unblemished record squashed by North Carolina while Duke suffered an expected setback at Georgia Tech. Nebraska’s first loss came at the hands of Indiana, which scored the game’s final 14 points to prevail late.
We’ve updated our playoff bracket projections and full list of bowl games after Week 6, including major changes at the top.
Cricket Celebration
Projection: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Salute to Veterans
Projection: Georgia State vs. UMass
Frisco Football Classic
Projection: South Alabama vs. FIU
Coming off consecutive wins, FIU travels to Jacksonville State next week for Tuesday night MACtion. One player hoping to make a name for himself with the rare weeknight opportunity is FIU wideout Maguire Anderson, who already has 25 receptions for 401 yards and a pair of scores this season.
Boca Raton
The Conference USA favorite Flames have looked explosive in five consecutive wins since a 20-13 loss to unbeaten JMU to open the season. Liberty is off until Oct. 22 when it travels to Kennesaw State. Kim Dais is averaging 7.1 yards per carry, which is second on the team behind Jaylon Coleman’s 9.9.
Gasparilla
Projection: USF vs. South Carolina
For the first time in a month, the Gamecocks are back in our bowl projections after a shocking victory at Florida, only the program’s third all-time at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. After three straight SEC losses, Shane Beamer has at least temporarily coached himself off the hot seat thanks to LaNorris Sellers‘ five-touchdown outing. South Carolina (2-3) is off next week before embarking on a four-game stretch that includes Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Arkansas — three opponents that are currently struggling.
Myrtle Beach
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State
Puerto Rico
Projection: Fresno State vs. Air Force
Potato
Projection: UNLV vs. Western Michigan
At least we’re no longer harping on the Broncos’ season-opening loss at Michigan standing in the way of a possible CFP berth. A 25-point loss two weeks ago at Boise State took care of that, but this is still a team that could potentially get to 10 wins this fall before playing in the MAC Championship.
Cure
Independence
Projection: Washington vs. Kansas State
Two teams that missed golden opportunities at home to knock off top-25 teams in Week 6, Washington and Kansas State, invested this offseason heavily in returning starters at quarterback. Now, both squads are already two games back in their respective conference races.
New Orleans
Projection: Delaware vs. JMU
Poinsettia
Projection: Oregon State vs. Arizona State
Hello Brady Atkinson and Jesse Legree, one of college football’s most potent QB-WR duos this season. The pair hooked up again for a highlight-worthy touchdown in Saturday’s victory over San Diego State, which marked Oregon State’s fourth straight since opening losses to Houston and Texas Tech. Oregon State has it figured out on offense and has a chance to win the Pac-12 this season. Running the table won’t get this team to the playoff, though.
Armed Forces
Frisco Bowl
Projection: TCU vs. North Texas
TCU slots in this spot this week ahead of West Virginia, which lost for the third straight weekend following a 3-0 start. The Horned Frogs have their own problems under Sonny Dykes, whose seat is beginning to warm in Fort Worth, but there are a couple of favorable home games left that should help reach bowl eligibility requirements.
Hawaii
Projection: Jacksonville State vs. Wyoming
New Mexico
Projection: Troy vs. New Mexico
If you’re a college football purist, you’ve kept up with Jason Eck this season with the Lobos. They’re calling him Tony Soprano on social media for the business-casual garb he wears to press conferences and his no-BS approach to winning football games. New Mexico’s only loss was a respectable 14-6 setback at Oklahoma in Week 3. The Lobos have scored 103 points in two wins since and fly to Hawaii next week with a chance to keep pace at the top of the Mountain West.
Mayo
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Penn State
Pinstripe
Projection: Duke vs. Northwestern
Duke and Northwestern at Yankee Stadium? There are worse ways to spend the holidays than watching two Power Four teams that deserve more attention than they’re getting through the first half of the season. These aren’t the brands driving playoff debates, but they’re a combined 8-2 this season despite economic challenges. There’s value in exceeding expectations, and thus far, Manny Diaz and David Braun should be applauded for what they’ve done. Next week’s rivalry bout with North Carolina is critical for the Blue Devils, who suffered their first loss of the season Saturday at Georgia Tech.
68 Ventures
Projection: Louisiana vs. Ohio
Fenway
Projection: Memphis vs. NC State
Try figuring out NC State. One week, the Wolfpack finally executed late and beat Louisville, then came Saturday’s blowout loss to Wake Forest — a reminder that consistency remains out of reach for Dave Doeren. Throw in the end zone fumble at Vanderbilt, and you’ve got a season built to drive this fan base crazy in Raleigh. The frustrating part? NC State has shown enough to make you believe in quarterback CJ Bailey and the pieces around him.
Cactus
Projection: Cincinnati vs. Wisconsin
Birmingham
Projection: Florida vs. North Carolina
Disaster has struck the Gators during Jon Sumrall’s first season. Florida has unraveled quickly since a 4-0 start skyrocketed aspirations and pushed the team to a top-10 ranking. Lopsided losses to Missouri and now South Carolina have completely altered the trajectory of the campaign for a staff searching for answers.
Bill Belichick has his first win over a ranked team with the Tar Heels after North Carolina erased a 10-point deficit to take out previously unbeaten Pittsburgh on the road. Belichick called Saturday’s win a “gutsy performance” by his team. The Tar Heels did not play particularly cleanly and still found a way. After Belichick stumbled to eight losses last season, North Carolina is now 3-2 overall, with a trip to Duke next week before a home bout with Syracuse that bleeds into a Miami game on Halloween.
Military
Pop-Tarts
Projection: SMU vs. Oklahoma State
Could the Cowboys run the table and win the Big 12 Championship? Yes. However, the Cowboys have the toughest schedule left among conference title contenders, including matchups at Houston and one in Stillwater vs. Texas Tech on Nov. 14. That game could could send the its winner to the league title game.
Rhett Lashlee would love a do-over from SMU’s trip to Louisville a few weeks back, but it’s only forward from here for the Mustangs. Depending on ACC tiebreakers, winning out could get SMU to Charlotte. The Mustangs don’t play Miami and host Wake Forest in mid-November. Georgia Tech’s win over Duke on Saturday and North Carolina’s upset of Pittsburgh leave Miami as the only ACC unbeaten left standing.
Alamo
Projection: USC vs. Texas Tech
Gator
Projection: Louisville vs. Mississippi State
The Cardinals aren’t going to win the ACC after losses to Wake Forest and NC State, but there are greener pastures ahead — a schedule featuring no ranked opponents. That could potentially set up a sizzling battle against a potential top-20 team in Kentucky.
Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs gave it away too many times against Alabama last week and used their open date to seal wounds in prep for LSU in Week 7. Going from a 1-7 record in conference play to a realistic .500 or better finish would be a major improvement from Jeff Lebby in Starkville.
Music City
Projection: Minnesota vs. LSU
ReliaQuest
Projection: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s CFP quest isn’t over yet after a victory over No. 1 Texas, a huge statement from the Sooners. They still have to play three ranked teams during the second half of the campaign, including a couple on the road. The rivalry showdown with Missouri on Nov. 28 could have incredibly high stakes.
Nebraska led unbeaten Indiana throughout, only to give up two long touchdowns down the stretch as the program extended its losing skid to ranked opponents to 32 games. Matt Rhule hasn’t beaten an elite team at Nebraska (0-10), and Saturday’s 20-17 loss was deflating.
Sun
Projection: Virginia vs. Arizona
Las Vegas
Projection: Michigan vs. BYU
BYU’s offense won’t cause Notre Dame’s coaching staff to lose any sleep this week ahead of next Saturday’s matchup in Provo, but that game has significant CFP implications. For now, the Cougars are the projected runner-up in the Big 12 since they have to go to Utah in November.
Winless in the Big Ten with Penn State approaching, Michigan’s offense wasn’t supposed to look this difficult with Bryce Underwood running the show. There’s no level of consistency despite the talent. Kyle Whittingham hasn’t yet established an identity during his first season and much of that blame falls on the shoulders of his quarterback.
Texas
Projection: Houston vs. Tennessee
The No. 22 Cougars were a small road underdog at Kansas State but played one of their most complete games of the season in a three-touchdown victory. Conner Weigman threw for 242 yards and four as Houston maintained its threat status in the Big 12. Houston’s a successful two-point conversion at Texas Tech away this season from potentially being 6-0 and inside the top 10.
Live to fight another day. That has to be the mentality emanating from the Tennessee locker room after its tougher-than-expected road win at Arkansas pushed the Vols’ record to 5-1. Nothing looks easy for Josh Heupel’s offense right now with showdowns against Alabama and LSU coming over the next five weeks.
Citrus
Projection: Iowa vs. Missouri
There’s a clear path for the Hawkeyes to get to the CFP as a one-loss team and the Big Ten’s third-place finisher. Friday night’s dominant win at Washington was the much-needed bounce back from last week’s loss to Ohio State and paved the way for Iowa to make serious noise down the stretch given its favorable slate. The problem? Iowa may not have a single win over a nationally-ranked opponent in terms of overall resume when the CFP selection committee meets for the final time in December. For now, we’re keeping the Hawkeyes out since their best win — potentially — could be one over Michigan. That may not age well should the Wolverines continue to struggle.
One of several SEC teams we’re now penciling in with nine wins after a crazy weekend in the league, Missouri could be the highest-ranked team in December to not reach the CFP based on resume. Last week’s win at Florida may not age well after the Gators were dump-trucked by South Carolina and still have a daunting slate. The Tigers play at Ole Miss next week and still entertain Texas and Georgia down the stretch.
First Responder
Projection: Pittsburgh vs. Tulane
Liberty
Projection: Baylor vs. Texas A&M
With a shot at its fifth win next weekend against TCU, Baylor is one of the Big 12’s biggest surprises. Dave Aranda’s performance is commendable, given the pressure he was under entering the campaign. Former Florida quarterback DJ Lagway and other portal acquisitions have made a difference.
Another week, another four quarters of getting punched in the mouth for Texas A&M. It’s maddening what’s happened to a preseason top-10 team that’s officially in danger of missing bowl eligibility if the offense fails to recover. Mike Elko doubled down on quarterback Marcel Reed this offseason and promoted Holmon Wiggins to run the offense. That makes this widescale regression a coaching problem, too.
Arizona
Projection: North Dakota State vs. Eastern Michigan
Holiday
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Oregon
Saturday’s loss to UCLA could’ve been much worse for the Ducks. Oregon turned it over five times and barely eclipsed 100 yards of total offense in a complete letdown coming off a win over USC. The second loss means Oregon must win out from here to reach the CFP, and the chances of that happening are extremely slim. Even if Oregon gets the return of Dante Moore at quarterback next week, the schedule’s treacherous from here.
Wake Forest scored 31 unanswered points at NC State to fend off the Wolfpack’s attempt to half one of the ACC’s best stories. With five wins at midseason and the only loss coming to Miami, Gio Lopez and the Demon Deacons have all of their season-long goals still within reach under budding superstar and coach Jake Dickert. His motto for the season is “built in the dark,” and Wake Forest has been relentlessly flexing that mantra on gamedays.
College Football Playoff First round
Projection: (9) UCLA at (8) Texas
Bob Chesney got his breakthrough win with the Bruins, and now, UCLA enters the CFP mix for the first time this season as one of two unbeatens left in the Big Ten after Week 6. Unfortunately for UCLA, quarterback Nico Iamaleava left the win in the second half, and his injury status is unknown. This offense changes if he’s unable to return in the coming weeks.
Texas losing to Oklahoma pushes the Longhorns back a few spots. There are a couple of throws Arch Manning would like back from Red River, but he still has one of the nation’s best resumes, considering previous wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. A strong finish will be more than enough to get into the bracket.
Projection: (10) Ole Miss at (7) Utah
Ole Miss gets the nod in the No. 10 spot after passing the eye test in Nashville. The Rebels clobbered Vanderbilt in their first game since losing at Florida and seemed to finally find their footing defensively. Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State are still on the schedule, so this CFP berth is far from wrapped up for Ole Miss.
Utah’s one of four teams likely to decide the Big 12 as the Utes join BYU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Where it gets sticky for at-large hopefuls is the possibility of this conference’s runner-up finishing with 11 (or more) wins. That would be a bid-stealing scenario against the likes of the SEC, which is hoping to place five teams in the bracket for the first time.
Projection: (11) Kentucky at (6) Indiana
That’s right — Will Stein and Kentucky have entered the CFP zone. The Wildcats are 5-1 this season with consecutive 35-34 overtime wins, the latest coming against 10th-ranked LSU. It’s a devastating loss for the Tigers, who drop out of the CFP mix this week and are one loss away from being out of it altogether.
The Hoosiers tied Ohio State’s Big Ten record with its 22nd straight win, and Curt Cignetti improved to 27-0 at Indiana against unranked teams following Saturday’s comeback at Nebraska. The 20-17 victory may have told us more about the Huskers than it did the Hoosiers, who have narrowly escaped two Big Ten opponents to stay unblemished ahead of next weekend’s mammoth battle against Ohio State.
Projection: (12) Boise State at (5) Notre Dame
Barring a Fresno State upset in Saturday night’s late game, the Broncos stay the Group of Six favorite. Notre Dame’s in the No. 5 spot with the projection that the Fighting Irish’s lone regular-season loss comes against Miami in early November.
Quarterfinals
PEACH BOWL — Projection: (9) Texas vs. (1) Miami
COTTON BOWL — Projection: (10) Ole Miss vs. (2) Georgia
ROSE BOWL — Projection: (6) Indiana vs. (3) Ohio State
FIESTA BOWL — Projection: (5) Notre Dame vs. (4) Alabama
Semifinals
ORANGE BOWL — Projection: (1) Miami vs. (4) Alabama
SUGAR BOWL — Projection: (2) Georgia vs. (3) Ohio State