– This is the script of CNBC’s financial news report for China’s CCTV on October 12, 2026.
Although the decision by the United States to relax sanctions restrictions on Russian diesel opens a pathway for Russian fuel to enter the US and international markets, this arrangement is likely a drop in the bucket when it comes to easing global diesel supply tightness.
According to a report by the Financial Times, even if Russia exports another 500,000 metric tons of diesel next month, it would cover less than 4% of global diesel demand. Moreover, a larger question remains: if attacks on Russian refining facilities continue at the current pace, can Russia fulfill its commitment to deliver 3 million metric tons of diesel, the timeline for which remains unspecified? According to a previous report released by the International Energy Agency, due to refining facility damage caused by the Russia Ukraine conflict, Russia’s average daily crude processing volume in June stood at just 3.8 million barrels, down nearly 30% year over year and marking the lowest level in over two decades. Furthermore, a 3 million metric ton diesel export volume approaches Russia’s historical total monthly diesel exports. Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler shows that in the years leading up to 2025, Russia exported an average of roughly 2.6 million metric tons of diesel monthly via maritime transport.
JOSH YOUNG
Chief Investment Officer
Bison Interests
“When the amount is so low that one wonders whether it would even make a difference. What did you think of it?”
“Yeah, exactly that. I think what it tells us is that there’s an emergency and a real problem, and unfortunately, it also tells us that there’s not a great solution.”
Additionally, renewed tanker attacks off Saudi Arabia and surrounding waters are adding further variables to crude supply and transport outlooks.
Analysts note in interviews with CNBC that while Middle East crude exports have returned close to normal levels, attacks have not only driven up tanker freight and insurance rates but also complicated logistics. Some crude must undergo short haul lightering and ship to ship transfers before reaching buyers, with transport expenses alone adding roughly 30 to 40 dollars per barrel to overall costs. These additional expenses could ultimately pass down the supply chain to end consumers.
Although the US government has attempted to ease fuel supply pressures by relaxing restrictions on red diesel usage and pushing G7 nations to release crude and diesel reserves, US diesel prices remain persistently elevated.
According to AAA data, as of October 9th, the national average retail price for diesel in the United States stood at roughly 6.30 dollars per gallon, up nearly 70% compared with levels prior to the US Iran conflict.
Analysts warn that because diesel is widely used across freight transport and production, rising costs will transmit across supply chains to a broad range of goods and services, meaning record high diesel prices could generate greater inflationary pressures than the Federal Reserve has projected.
JOSH YOUNG
Chief Investment Officer
Bison Interests
“U.S. government and various international governments trying to suppress the headline price of oil to try to reduce, let’s say, the psychological impact, which could carry over into inflation expectations. These things are they’re very short term. There’s a risk. It’s sort of like a coiled spring. You’re not able to add additional force, it may release and send the spring much higher.”