Much of Stafford’s post-MVP season has been limited to quick, short throws. We haven’t seen many of those big digs that became a staple of Sean McVay’s offense after he acquired Stafford in 2021. Taking a gander at Stafford’s NGS passing chart, the differences are evident. Through five weeks, he’s completed just 5 of 20 passes of 20-plus air yards, with one TD and three INTs — zero completions in the middle of the field deep. Taking copious shots is very un-Stafford-like.
Monday, Stafford completed just 4 of his 12 passes (33.3%) for 62 yards when under pressure. 69.2% (9 of 13) of his dropbacks under pressure came on play-action passes, with 61.5% (8 of 13) coming from under-center play-action. Under pressure, his 41.7% downfield throw rate was his lowest of the season, with 25.0% of his passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage — a season high.
The question we have to monitor is if it’s a product of the circumstances, including playing with more TEs and dealing with WR injuries. Or do we think the 38-year-old is hitting that “avoid hits at all costs, just get the ball out” phase of his career when the explosive plays can naturally dip? Either explanation is legitimate.
I’m not suggesting Stafford is falling off a cliff soon. He’s too good, the Rams’ offense is too well-oiled, and the signal-caller has too many playmakers at his disposal. An reigning MVP’s numbers falling off slightly early in the season is fairly routine, particularly for those who win it at 30-plus. Through five games in 2025, Stafford completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,503 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs, an 8.2 YPA, a 107.3 passer rating, 9 sacks taken and a 0.17 EPA per dropback. In 2026, he’s at 64.4%, 1,572 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs, 7.3 YPA, an 88.3 rating, 7 sacks taken and a 0.09 EPA/dropback.
The interesting aspect is how he’s gotten there so far through five outings, by peppering defenses short. Can he live as a paper-cutter, or will we see the big-armed demon let it rip as the offense settles into the season?
One glaring note about Los Angeles’ 2-3 start: Over the past 10 years, Stafford’s Rams are the only team to begin the campaign following an MVP season under .500 through five games.
With a defense struggling to get stops and moribund special teams, the Rams need Stafford to get back in MVP contention after starting the season three games behind San Francisco in the NFC West race. Even with nights like Monday, that might not be enough.