Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Expected goals have recently become a staple of hockey analysis. For the New Jersey Devils, however, the numbers help illustrate a concerning story that has persisted across multiple seasons.
Since the start of 2024-25, the Devils have scored 291 goals at five-on-five despite generating 363.28 “expected goals”, a differential of minus-72.28 goals. No team in the NHL has underperformed its expected goals by more over that span.
The Devils’ problem isn’t necessarily generating chances. Rather, it’s converting them. But that raises an important question: How much should Devils fans trust the team’s “expected goals” numbers in the first place — especially when the “expected” doesn’t usually match the “actual”?
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The NHL’s Best and Worst Finishers Since 2024-25
The following numbers reflect 5v5 play from 2024-25 through the current 2026-27 season. We measured actual goals scored minus expected goals (GF − xGF), with negative numbers indicating teams that scored fewer goals than expected.
Top five teams in GF − xGF (Best Finishers)
RankTeamGF − xGF1Buffalo Sabres+34.522Seattle Kraken+21.713Toronto Maple Leafs+20.484Winnipeg Jets+18.125St. Louis Blues+15.78
Bottom five teams in GF − xGF (Worst Finishers)
RankTeamGF − xGF32New Jersey Devils-72.2831Nashville Predators-69.0530Detroit Red Wings-58.3729Calgary Flames-56.2628Carolina Hurricanes-51.14
Expected goals estimate how often shots with particular characteristics become goals across the league. They don’t guarantee future production or necessarily reflect how well a specific roster finishes chances. For a team like the Devils that consistently converts below expectation, assuming expected goals should (or will) translate directly into actual goals can make its offensive process look better than it is.
That doesn’t make expected goals entirely meaningless. But it absolutely means the Devils’ finishing limitations must be part of the evaluation. Generating quality chances is valuable, but the Devils have demonstrated over multiple seasons that they cannot be expected to convert those chances at a one-to-one ratio — or even close to it.
The Carolina Hurricanes offer a useful comparison. Since 2024-25, Carolina has generated 428.14 expected goals at five-on-five, compared to 363.28 for New Jersey. The Hurricanes have scored 377 actual goals, while the Devils have scored just 291.
Despite underperforming expected goals by 51.14, Carolina’s ability to overwhelm opponents with shot volume and sustained pressure helps compensate for its finishing shortcomings. The Devils’ ideal blueprint may look more like Carolina than, say, a Buffalo, which has outperformed expected goals by 34.52.
Obviously, despite an 85.66-goal gap favoring Buffalo over Carolina, that doesn’t mean Buffalo is a better team. That exactly highlights why finishing doesn’t tell the full story. There isn’t one universal formula for winning, and special teams and goaltending also play significant roles.
The Devils don’t necessarily need elite finishing, but they must regularly generate way more chances than the opposition to compensate for their limitations. That’s not easy to do.
On Oct. 10 against Vancouver, the Devils generated 3.04 expected goals at 5v5 but scored just once. That’s one of 64 games since 2024-25 where the Devils have finished more than a goal below expected — a whopping ~38% of their games. In that large of a sample, it becomes hard to believe it’s poor luck. It’s who they are.
Some Optimism, But Be Extremely Cautious…
Despite the finishing woes, the Devils currently rank third in the NHL with a 61.77% expected goals share at 5v5 (xGF%). Since expected goals began being tracked in 2007-08, no team finishing an 82-game season above 55.54% xGF% has missed the playoffs. Only five playoff missers have finished above 54%.
For comparison, In 2022-23, they were second in the NHL with a 55.99 xGF% and had their best regular season in franchise history. In each season since, respectively, it’s been 51.63%, 51.37% and 49.87%. So that is a major difference, for everyone claiming “Nothing is different” with these Devils.
However, that current 61.77% number comes from a small sample and is inflated by its performances against Vancouver and Philadelphia, two beatable opponents, and a dominant third period against Ottawa while the Senators protected a lead. It’s too early to assume the Devils can sustain that level of dominance, but it’s a statistic at least worth monitoring as the season progresses.
The team’s shot volume offers another encouraging sign. The Devils are averaging 36.2 shots per game — first in the NHL, and well ahead of Detroit in second at 32.8. Last year’s Devils averaged 29.6 per game; that’s an over 22% increase.
Since COVID, the lowest shooting percentage by an NHL team in a full season was the 2021-22 Los Angeles Kings at 8.2%. The Devils are currently shooting at a 6.1% clip.
Even if they were ’21-22 Kings level bad, they’d score ~34.4% more goals than they have so far. At the 2025-26 Devils’ 9.3% rate, the increase would be approximately 52.5%. Even well below-average finishing could dramatically change the narrative in comparison to the would-be historically bad pace we’ve seen through five games. A reversion to that is a reasonable expectation.
To further illustrate how above-average finishing isn’t a requirement for success, that 2022-23 Devils team also finished 9.52 goals below expected at 5v5.
Ultimately, the Devils don’t need to become an elite finishing team or convert every expected goal. But they do need to generate enough chances to compensate for their limitations, plus receive complementary special teams and goaltending performances. Some of the early signs are encouraging, but the real test is whether any of that can translate into wins. That remains to be seen.
*Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick*
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