(Photo illustration by Sarah Rogers/The Bulwark | Photos Getty, Shutterstock)
Bonus: One of our recurring themes is Trump undermining the U.S.-led world financial order, which has been a big part of the Pax Americana. I keep warning about de-dollarization—the possibility that the world will move away from using the U.S. dollar as its reserve currency.
Well.
Tucked away in the news yesterday was a report that Zambia is about to start allowing some sales of copper to be settled in renminbi.
I understand this does not sound exciting! It’s just one small African country, just one commodity, and not even their entire trading volume. But copper is important. Also, there’s this stray remark from the governor of the Zambian central bank, Denny Kalyalya:
“That’s the starting point,” he said. “We also hope that new lending could also be denominated in renminbi. That would help a great deal.”
And it’s not just Zambian copper:
A growing list of African lenders are signing on to connect with China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, Beijing’s yuan-based alternative to the SWIFT international payment system.
Kenya has swapped Chinese debt from dollars into yuan. The conversion will save Kenya $215 million annually in debt service, with interest rates on the new yuan loans dropping to as low as 3%.
Ethiopia is also converting a portion of its debt to China into renminbi. Central Bank Governor Eyob Tekalign said in an interview Wednesday that the process was ongoing, even as talks were concluded for the deal.
If you remember The Most Boring Triad Ever back in June, you will remember how freaked out I am about the United States’ ability to pay its debts—let alone to borrow more money—if people around the world decide they don’t need to conduct international trade in dollars anymore. Not good.
This is how we see around corners. And it’s why we’re going to look up from the news today and talk about a freight train that’s coming down the tracks, not in 2026, or even 2028, maybe. But soon.
America is headed toward single-payer health care.
You like the sound of that? Be careful what you wish for.