The Dolphins’ losses have been about what we expected this season. Jeff Hafley’s team is battling, scrapping, and isn’t putting out limp-noodle efforts. However, they’re so severely outgunned that their chances of stacking successful outings are minuscule.
Willis hasn’t been good, ranking 24th in EPA per dropback (-0.2) and 21st in success rate with a -1.8% completion rate over expected. However, given the rest of the offense, I think he gets more of a pass than some names on this list. The Dolphins’ best targets are rookies, they still have blocking issues, and the club lost its most explosive player for the season.
I’m somewhat surprised that the Dolphins haven’t used Willis’ legs more this season (27 attempts, 186 yards, two TDs through five weeks). Entering the season, we figured that was one advantage the QB had over others, but the usage has been intermittent.
More concerning has been the inefficiency as a passer. Willis thrived under Matt LaFleur in Green Bay by boasting an 85.7 completion rate, getting the ball out and letting receivers run, and making plays out of the pocket. We’ve seen precious little of any of that in Miami. His accuracy has waned (56.2%), and he’s missed players on the move.
If you’re into the long-term plan in Miami, things couldn’t be going much better. The Dolphins are trying to compete, the young players are flashing, and the losses are piling up, increasing the draft value.
Given where they’re at, I don’t see the need to sit Willis. He’s not a rookie who needs a breather to recalibrate. At the very least, Willis lets the staff evaluate the rest of the offense with a relatively clean eye. I don’t think the Dolphins need to see what Kyle McCord has before heading into the offseason.
Miami paid Willis knowing he could be a stopgap. Literally nothing we’ve seen this year changes any of the math in South Beach.