E-town’s reported 99% vaccination rate at Bainbridge Elementary raises an eyebrow [Lancaster Watchdog] | Local News

With Lancaster County at the epicenter of a multistate measles outbreak, residents of Elizabethtown Area School District naturally have questions about how the district is responding to news that a Bainbridge Elementary School student was infected.

Measles is a highly contagious virus easily spread to people who have not received at least one dose of the standard combined vaccine against measles, mumps and rubella.

In the wake of the Oct. 7 announcement about the Bainbridge student, Elizabethtown Area issued a statement saying vaccination rates in the district, and specifically the elementary school, are well above the 95% herd immunity threshold health experts recommend to prevent the disease from easily spreading.

The district posted an article to its website stating 99% of the students attending Bainbridge — the school’s student population hovers around 200 — provided documentation “showing protection against measles through the standard vaccination process.”

But those numbers appear to conflict with a set of numbers the district reported to the state Health Department in December, and the Watchdog was wondering how two reputable sources — the district and the Health Department — could disagree on such a critical piece of information.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health compiles vaccination rate data that schools are required by law to self-report by the end of each calendar year. The data is a snapshot of each district, including only records from students in kindergarten, seventh grade and 12th grade.

Schools are also required to provide data on the number of students who are medically exempt from getting vaccinated and the number of students whose parents claim a religious or philosophical exemption from vaccinating their children.

The Health Department made its data accessible to the public to make it easier for parents and community members to track health information “at a time when misinformation and conspiracy theories are sowing distrust in longstanding medical guidance,” according to the department.

According to state data for the 2025-26 school year, Elizabethtown Area reported in December that parents of Bainbridge Elementary School students provided documentation of full measles vaccination (2 shots) for 68 of the school’s 77 kindergarteners, a vaccination rate of 88.3%.

The parents of seven of the nine remaining students claimed a religious exemption from vaccinating their children, and two students were provisionally enrolled at the school, which means the parents of those students had a plan in place to fully vaccinate their children, but the students had not yet received all of their shots.

Here’s where the math starts to break down for the Watchdog when she starts thinking about what the vaccination picture might look like at Bainbridge for the current 2026-27 school year.

Let’s assume the two former kindergarteners (now first graders) who had a vaccination plan in place have since been vaccinated. And let’s, for argument’s sake, assume the parents of all of the remaining students at Bainbridge Elementary have no religious objections to vaccines and have fully vaccinated their children.

Even with those generous parameters, the religious exemptions of seven kindergartener-turned-first graders would yield a schoolwide vaccination rate of 96.5% for a school of about 200. Still good, but by no means 99%.

If we consider, more realistically, that the rate of religious objections to vaccines among the seven families of the now-first graders is representative of the rate of religious objections among all Bainbridge Elementary parents, then we would be looking at a vaccination rate somewhere around 91%, well short of herd immunity.

The Watchdog asked district spokesperson Troy Portser whether the 99% vaccination rate the district reported on its website includes religious exemptions, but he did not provide an answer.

Is it possible that the seven families of last year’s kindergarteners who registered religious objections to vaccinating their children are the only families in the K-2 school who have registered religious exemptions? Certainly.

Is it possible that all of those families have since changed their minds and vaccinated their children for measles, or perhaps no longer send their children to Bainbridge? Of course.

Are those scenarios likely? No.

With measles spreading at rates this country hasn’t seen in decades, there has been renewed academic interest in what motivates people who claim religious exemptions to vaccines. Not surprisingly, researchers have found they make decisions based on strongly held beliefs that resist efforts to change them — through efforts like, say, an informational health campaign.

So the Watchdog continues to wonder about the number of religious exemptions at Bainbridge Elementary and districtwide, and she continues to wait for specific data from district officials.

Recommended measles response

While their numbers might not seem to match, the state Health Department and the school district appear to be on the same page regarding the basic protocols for addressing measles in a public school setting.

If a school in Lancaster County learns that someone infected with measles has been in the building, the Health Department recommends staff contact the state Health Department, which the district did.

The school should then, per state Department of Health guidance, review attendance records for all students and staff who attended the school when the person with measles might have been in attendance. If the person is confirmed to have attended the school while infected, the school “may need to share information gathered” from reviewing attendance records with the Health Department to “help prevent the spread of measles to others.”

Elizabethtown said it is communicating directly with families of students who develop symptoms and directing them to consult their healthcare provider for further guidance, where appropriate, but has not said whether it has shared attendance records with the Department of Health.

Department of Health Deputy Press Secretary Stepahnie Nojiri said the department works with schools to identify those who are not immune to the virus and provides guidance on “actions and next steps,” such as instructing those who are not immune to stay home and quarantine while monitoring for symptoms.

When asked whether Elizabethtown is sharing attendance data with the Health Department, Noijiri declined to provide specific information about any of its “ongoing case investigations.”

“It is important,” the Health Department notes, that the district provide that information “as soon as possible so that (the Health Department) can notify families of the exposure, let families know what they should do if they were not vaccinated at the time of exposure and let families know how they can contact” the Health Department and “seek care if they develop symptoms.”

If necessary, a school may ask potentially infected people who have not been vaccinated against measles to remain home for up to 21 days after their last exposure. The state Department of Health does not recommend closing a school during an outbreak of measles, as Oxford Area High School in neighboring Chester County did following a notification that one of its students was infected with measles.

Elizabethtown Area did not close Bainbridge Elementary.

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