Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Global supply chain pressure index,” accessed September 2026; Michael S. Derby, “NY Fed says April supply chain pressures highest since July 2022,” Reuters, May 6, 2026.
International Energy Agency (IEA), “Strait of Hormuz factsheet,” February 2026.
Joint Maritime Information Center, “Update 098 to JMIC advisory note,” accessed October 2026; UK Maritime Trade Operations, “Recent Incidents,” accessed October 2026.
IEA, “Oil market report: September 2026,” accessed in Sept. 11, 2026. Unless stated otherwise, all data on global crude supplies is taken from this source in this section.
Spencer Kimball, “Saudi Arabia shut down East-West crude oil pipeline after multiple attacks by drones from Iraq,” CNBC, Sept. 11, 2026.
Non-OPEC+ refers to oil-producing nations that are independent of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and Mexico.
IEA, “Oil market report: September 2026”; Clyde Russell, “China draws on crude inventories in August as refinery runs rise,” Reuters, Sept. 15, 2026.
United States Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum and other liquids: Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil in SPR (September 18, 2026),” accessed September 2026.
IEA, “Oil market report: September 2026.”
David Martin and Talya Vatman, “Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks,” IEA, Sept. 17, 2026. Unless stated otherwise, all data on Russian refinery output and related Middle East output in this section is taken from this source.
IEA, “Oil market report glossary,” accessed Oct. 20, 2026.
Martin and Vatman, “Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks.”
Energy Information Administration, daily energy spot prices, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026.
IEA, “Gas market report: Q3-2026,” accessed September 2026. Unless stated otherwise, all data on natural gas supplies are taken from this source.
Intercontinental Exchange, natural gas prices, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026.
Voltstack, EU Gas Storage Tracker: Winter 2026/27 readiness, accessed September 2026.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Global agrifood implications of the 2026 conflict in the Middle East,” March 15, 2026.
Andre Brotto, Jonathan Hepburn, Ulla Kask, Simon Neumueller, Cédric Pene, Isadora Tarosso, and Ying Yan, “Fertilizer trade impacted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” World Trade Organization, July 10, 2026.
Josheph Glauber and Shawn Arita, “How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?” International Food Policy Research Institute, Sept. 18, 2026.
Ibid.
Ibid.
World Bank, Commodity price data: Fertilizers, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026.
Glauber and Arita, “How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz?”; Brotto, Hepburn, Kask, Neumueller, Pene, Tarosso, and Yan, “Fertilizer trade impacted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.”
Ibid.
World Bank, Commodity price data: Fertilizers, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAO, WFP, Mercy Corps and the Ukrainian Red Cross step up grain storage support to protect Ukraine’s 2026 harvest,” Aug. 31, 2026.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “World food situation: FAO Food price index,” accessed September 2026.
Joint Maritime Information Center, “Update 098 to JMIC advisory note”; UK Maritime Trade Operations, “Recent Incidents”.
International Maritime Organization, “Middle East: Highlighted (confirmed) incidents,” accessed October 2026.
Ibid.
Baltic Exchange, freight market data, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026.
Ron Bousso, “Hormuz shuttles keep flowing but at a high cost,” Reuters, Sept. 21, 2026; Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh, “Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers reach limit as Saudi exports surge,” Reuters, Sept. 25, 2026.
International Maritime Organization, “Addressing ship-to-ship oil transfers and tankers in the dark fleet,” April 4, 2026.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption expenditure price index, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026. Unless stated otherwise, all US inflation data in this segment is taken from this source.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, producer price index, sourced using Haver Analytics in September 2026. Unless stated otherwise, all data on US producer price inflation is taken from this source.
United States Federal Reserve, “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement,” Sept. 16, 2026.
United States Federal Reserve, “September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version,” Sept. 16, 2026.
United States Federal Reserve, “Summary of economic projections,” March 18, 2026.
Haver Analytics, Policy interest rates, accessed in September 2026.
Haver Analytics, Daily interest rates, accessed in September 2026.
Ibid.
United States Bureau of the Fiscal Service, “Monthly Treasury Statement: August 2026,” accessed September 2026.