PIF ATP Live Rankings Projection
How the Sinner-Alcaraz Cincinnati final could prove pivotal in No. 1 battle entering US Open
Alcaraz could take lead in Live Rankings at start of US Open
August 18, 2025
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, the top two players in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, will meet in the Cincinnati final.
By ATP Staff
The Cincinnati Open final between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will have huge ramifications on the battle for the No. 1 PIF ATP Ranking heading into the US Open.
If Alcaraz defeats Sinner on Monday in the pair’s fourth Lexus ATP Head2Head clash of the season, the Spaniard will lead the PIF ATP Live Rankings once the season’s final major begins.
Wait a second… Doesn’t Sinner lead Alcaraz by 2,250 points in the Live Rankings entering the Cincinnati final? How could one win change things so drastically?
 Player
 Live Pts
 Pts If Sinner Wins Cincy
 Pts If Alcaraz Wins Cincy
 Jannik Sinner
 11,480
 11,830
 11,480
 Carlos Alcaraz
 9,230
 9,230
 9,580
 Gap
 2,250
 2,600
 1,900
It all goes back to last year’s US Open, where Sinner lifted the trophy and Alcaraz suffered a shocking second-round loss to Botic van de Zandschulp in New York. The Italian earned 1,950 points more than his great rival in New York.
Therefore, the gap is not as big at it seems. If Alcaraz triumphs in Cincinnati for the first time, he would pull to within 1,900 points of Sinner. Once you remove their 2024 US Open points in the Live Rankings, Alcaraz would be ahead by 50 points.
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Sinner can help his cause by successfully defending the Cincinnati title Monday. With a victory by the new 24-year-old, there would be a 700-point swing in his direction and he would lead the Live Rankings by 650 points with last year’s Flushing Meadows points dropped.
Either way, World No. 1 will be up for grabs in New York. Even if Sinner wins Monday, the only way he could guarantee his departure from the US Open with World No. 1 is by earning his third Slam trophy of the season. Alcaraz could also claim No. 1 by winning the US Open, regardless of how his rival performs at the season’s final major.Â
But if Sinner emerges victorious in Cincinnati, Alcaraz will need to reach the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows to have a chance of usurping Sinner for the first time since the Italian’s ascent on 10 June 2024. The Cincinnati Open final will begin at 3 p.m. local time Monday.
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